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Marginal Seat Watch - General Election
Hello,
Been following this thread and predictably the election run-up for a while, I thought it was worthwhile creating a thread about which seats people will be watching closely i.e. marginal that will ultimately decide the outcome of the election.
I thought it would be constructive to post the constituency, incumbent MP and background information to date.
Here are some of mine:
Watford - Currently Tory: one of the only current 3-way with a few thousand between Lib, Lab and Tory, will be interesting to see if Lib/Lab gang up on the Tories or will the Libs tactically vote to keep the Tories in?
Croydon Central - Currently Tory: Surely this is a seat in the diverse South London Borough that Labour need to win for Milliband to be in power. I would assume the natural London swing for Labour would see them achieve the 4-5% required to take the seat, but surprisingly the guardian revealed the Tories had actually increased their lead in the most recent poll?!
South Thanet - Will UKIP win their target seat? Again tactical voting could be at play here; murmurs that Labour who are only a few points behind 2nd placed tories will vote tory to get them ahead of UKIP?!
North Cornwall - Currently Lib - Surely a seat Tory have to win to remain near 300 seats. Polling has been up and down but the last poll saw Libs leading by 2
Peterborough - Currently Tory - not a marginal but Labour expected to take it with a 10-12% swing; I will follow this one as it looks like UKIP vote is unexpectedly high to date so will they swing back to Cameron to ensure they retain the seat?
I'm no expert so it would be good to see which closely-fought seats others will be following
Been following this thread and predictably the election run-up for a while, I thought it was worthwhile creating a thread about which seats people will be watching closely i.e. marginal that will ultimately decide the outcome of the election.
I thought it would be constructive to post the constituency, incumbent MP and background information to date.
Here are some of mine:
Watford - Currently Tory: one of the only current 3-way with a few thousand between Lib, Lab and Tory, will be interesting to see if Lib/Lab gang up on the Tories or will the Libs tactically vote to keep the Tories in?
Croydon Central - Currently Tory: Surely this is a seat in the diverse South London Borough that Labour need to win for Milliband to be in power. I would assume the natural London swing for Labour would see them achieve the 4-5% required to take the seat, but surprisingly the guardian revealed the Tories had actually increased their lead in the most recent poll?!
South Thanet - Will UKIP win their target seat? Again tactical voting could be at play here; murmurs that Labour who are only a few points behind 2nd placed tories will vote tory to get them ahead of UKIP?!
North Cornwall - Currently Lib - Surely a seat Tory have to win to remain near 300 seats. Polling has been up and down but the last poll saw Libs leading by 2
Peterborough - Currently Tory - not a marginal but Labour expected to take it with a 10-12% swing; I will follow this one as it looks like UKIP vote is unexpectedly high to date so will they swing back to Cameron to ensure they retain the seat?
I'm no expert so it would be good to see which closely-fought seats others will be following
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Comments
Possible UKIP gain
Fell to Tories 2010 with a decent 1000 plus majority sitting MP Jessica Lee (Tory) is standing down
Tomorrow I will be astonished if the seat is not labour again, people on the street here are sick of the cuts
Calling marginal Erewash for labour tomorrow
Sutton and Cheam - Libs- They have a small majority in this London seat against the Tories (below 2000), so despite what the odds are suggesting (Lib hold), I have heard through sources that the Tories are confident they have won and are telling their campaigners to travel to Croydon Central on election day
Not sure about Sherwood as incumbent Mark Spencer, even though a Tory, is actually a pretty nice bloke from a very normal background. Depends if that's enough to carry him AND if the Labour vote in the north of the constituency could be bothered to come out, as opposed to staying at home last time. TOO CLOSE TO CALL!!
Ashfield will stay Labour as the closest challenger from last time (Lib Dem) dropped out because of historic child abuse allegations a month or so ago. LABOUR RETAIN.
Nottingham South should stay Labour as well. They have it down as a marginal, but it really isn't. LABOUR RETAIN.
I've read could go down to tactical voting, with the Tory voters, voting Lib Dem to keep Labour out.
Labour Targets
Liberal Democrat Targets
Conservative Marginal Seats at risk
Labour Marginal Seats at risk
Liberal Democrat Marginal Seats at risk
Of course these are based on pure numbers; some seats off these lists may be susceptible to a bigger swing.
To achieve a Majority Government (325):
The Conservatives require 23 seats - all of their targets up to and including Plymouth Moor View (3.8% swing) without losing any seats.
Labour require 69 seats - all of their targets up to and including High Peak (9.3% swing) without losing any seats.
Its interesting if you take http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/labourtargets/ above and look where the leaders have been recently . Cameron still is defending his 13th most vulnerable seat on the last day, and Miliband was still working his 31st potential win with the tablet of stone - - which he would need just to compensate him for losing seats in Scotland. Thurrock is still a 3 way close bet ccording to Ashcroft's polls,
I noted too that the Ashcroft polls http://lordashcroftpolls.com/ have Pudsey as their closest seat - with leads changing, draws, and a a 1% CON lead in the last poll - which may be within the margin of error. Thats only number 26 on Labour's list.
Point being - both sides are still fighting for the front line trenches. They don't look to have achieved a breakthrough , and very few seats may be in play - thats important - particularly so when 284 Conservative seats may have a very different outcome to 286.Against that , Ashcroft did find one seat in his last poll that had swung well outside those considered at risk.
Not sure if the reports are true, but the contrast is with Scotland - where Labour has reportedly concentrated its efforts on defending a few possibly saveable seats.
Last election the Labour Party candidate was Steph Booth, Cherie Blairs step-mother and I think she lost votes because of Tony Blair. The Labour candidate this time is very popular locally. The Upper Valley in particular is quite alternative and many people I know have used Vote Swap so their Green votes will count elsewhere and they will vote Labour in Calder Valley.
Anna Soubry should go back to presenting Central News. She was better at that than being a MP!
I was in parts of Sherwood last weekend and there is a LOT of support for the Labour candidate (Leonie?) around Ollerton, Edwinstowe and Bilsthorpe. No surprise the only posters for the Tories were on the Nottingham road in the farmer fields.
Yep, Leonie Mathers. If those towns do come out, then she'll get it - but it depends on whether they do or not. One of the old rallying Labour stalwarts from Ollerton (Stella Smedley) passed away last year, and so that could either galvanise people or make them not bothered anymore.. I don't know really.
We can only hope
I had no idea Stella Smedley had passed away... Certainly during the 1980s and 1990s she was a name everyone knew in the area. I'm shocked the Conservatives ever took the seat, given the mining history of the area. There was a large group of Labour supporters campaigning on Edwinstowe High Street last Saturday, so I think they have a good chance. I don't think my relations in Sherwood will be voting Conservative
Yeah, a real shame - she was a truly lovely lady - a true conviction politician, but she'd been ill for a long time. If the north vote does come out, then Labour should win it, but everyone thought the same in 2010..
Ashcroft predicts the Tories will win it back on a 4% swing, although it hasn't been updated since September 2014.
Not many LD diamonds in houses this time round. There's an effing massive one in my village, then I realised it's the home of the previous LD MP (now Lord)