Rochester & Strood By Election 20/11/14
MattXfactor
Posts: 3,223 Forum Member
✭✭✭
What are people predicting will happen here in terms of vote share , what sort of % do you think UKIP are likely to win?
Also does anyone know at what sort of time tonight we can expect a result?
Couldn't find another thread created on this topic but please correct me if I'm wrong.
Sky bet have UKIP to win 40-45% at odds of 15/8 and 45.01-50% at odds of 15/8 too so its looking very likely to be between 40-50%, with UKIP as short as 1/250 with some bookies to win the seat.
Also does anyone know at what sort of time tonight we can expect a result?
Couldn't find another thread created on this topic but please correct me if I'm wrong.
Sky bet have UKIP to win 40-45% at odds of 15/8 and 45.01-50% at odds of 15/8 too so its looking very likely to be between 40-50%, with UKIP as short as 1/250 with some bookies to win the seat.
0
Comments
I think it will be roughly UKIP 40% Tories 35% Green 10% Labour 10% and 5% the rest.
I agree with this , I certainly thing Reckless will have a very tough job come next may holding onto his seat.
One thing is for certain, going by the amount of personally addressed leaflets that have come through my letterbox in the last 2 weeks, none of the parties are campaigning on the environment
I have never been bombarded my so much propaganda.
A lot of it is also coming from third parties campaigning for the parties, obviously to get around the spending cap.
Reckless did nothing for Rochester and Strood when he was a Conservative IMO and I really hope he gets kicked into the wilderness. Unfortunately I think he may win, but like has been said above, I think he will lose the seat at the General.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/byelection/11241798/Rochester-and-Strood-by-election-live.html
It's good to see a thread, which will keep me entertained, especially during the night, watching the results come in.
Are you near a polling station? getting any feeling of things e.g turnout etc.?
Tom • 2 minutes ago
Latest Poll.
."New Survation/Unite poll on Rochester: Ukip 48% (+48), Con 33% (-16), Lab 16% (-13), Lib Dems 1% (-16)." > Holy moly.
Would be very surprised if UKIP do get 48% of the vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/byelection/11241798/Rochester-and-Strood-by-election-live.html
BIB - Worried, Dave? LOL
ETA: Forgot to add this bit:
The i paper has this funny analysis of how long the MPs actually bothered to stay. They camped out at Rochester station and clocked them in and out. As it turned out they couldn't get back to London fast enough - although some did pause to grab a sausage butty for the journey home.
They report: that William Hague, leader of the house, could have been expected to set a good example, but after arriving at 11am on Monday he spent just 23 minutes wooing voters with Tory candidate Kelly Tolhurst.
Also a twitpic of the signatures of Tory MPs who have visited Rochester and Strood - err, recently:
https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/535109221860122624/photo/1
No I'm at work, will be voting later.
https://twitter.com/EmilyThornberry/status/535450556199075840/photo/1
I think Labour are losing the plot. That's what happens when the ship you're sailing in has no rudder.
Yep. I find it hilarious that people are voting for Reckless because they want a change to the local government that he led. It deserves a facepalm.
Just voted on the way home from work and I must say I'm not impressed with the UKIP activist outside, he was demanding your polling number even though he has no right to know it and kept physically blocking the elderly Tory woman from collecting it too. There were no activists from other parties outside.
I think UKIP have it, but I don't think they will win by the margin they think they will.
Either way they won't hold the constituency come the GE.
Probably took the photo to show her friends in Islington what a non-mansion house looks like.
"It was remarkable... I've never seen anything like it before"
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2842783/Labour-MP-accused-outrageous-snobbery-tweeting-photo-remarkable-house-flying-St-George-s-flags.html
Oh dear. Just keep digging that hole for yourself...
One of my pet hates, the activists outside the polling stations. They catch so many people off guard asking for their polling number.
And they look so shocked when you tell them no lol
I wonder what Labour are playing at. They held that seat in its Medway incarnation from 1997 to 2010 and now they don't even seem bothered.
Apparently she tweeted it because she's never seen England flags on a house before.. outside of a World Cup I'm presuming. If so she's not travelled very much.. I see them all the time out of my train window when I travel across the country.
That's something for them to ban if they get back in May. ;-)
Do you really think so?, may well be some tactical voting to keep opponents out but Rochester pretty unlikly.
Labour are apparently claiming to not understand what is wrong with her tweet...which I think shows just how out of touch/contemptious they are of their working class base. It is lucky for them that they actually can take that vote for granted.
Thing is, they're going to get a third place at best whatever they do and so if they put in a real effort and they still don't get anywhere then it'll look even worse for them. Personally, I'd love to see them get bumped into fourth place by the Greens and for the Lib Dems to get another lost deposit. I'd love to see all three rotten main parties get trashed in this by-election one way or another.
Happens all the time when I vote here. Usually it's the Green party who ask for mine. I don't think I've ever walked into the polling station here and not been asked for it.
So what's the fuss?
To the contrary, things could get very interesting indeed in May next year if the next parliament contains 20 SNP MPs, a dozen UKIP MPs and a handful of Green MPs all at the expense of both the Labour and Conservative parties.