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UKIP surge hammers Tories in key marginals - poll
deptfordbaker
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Well done Lord Ashcroft another very helpful poll.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/active/10309810/UKIP-surge-hammers-Tories-in-key-marginals-poll.html
Labour isn't beating the Conservatives, UKIP is. Forget moving to the centre, or worrying about being the nasty party, if the Conservatives want to win they have to get votes back from UKIP.
Ed Milliband may become Prime Minister, but not by anything amazing he does, simply by the fact that he will gain all the marginals due to a split in the right wing vote.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/active/10309810/UKIP-surge-hammers-Tories-in-key-marginals-poll.html
Telegraph wrote:
The rise of the UK Independence Party is squeezing Conservative support in key marginal constituencies around Britain and could put Ed Miliband in 10 Downing Street, a new opinion poll shows.
The survey by Lord Ashcroft, the former Conservative deputy chairman, gives Labour a 14-point lead in the 32 seats which have the smallest current Tory majorities over Mr Miliband’s party. Labour’s 14-point advantage in their target seats compares with a national lead of five points (35 per cent to 30 per cent) over the Tories in a “comparison” poll covering the whole country also undertaken by the peer.
The huge marginals poll on the eve of the party conference season, which covers nearly 13,000 voters in 40 Conservative-held constituencies, does offer some comfort to David Cameron, who is seen as a better choice as prime minister by 13 points over Mr Miliband.
It also suggests that at the next election, in May 2015, the Tories will hold seats where they are currently defending narrow majorities from Liberal Democrats in second place. However, it is the surge by Ukip, taking votes from the Conservative and letting in Labour, which is causing the most disquiet at 10 Downing Street and Conservative Campaign Headquarters.
No political party currently has the money to compile regular polls in key marginals on the scale of today’s survey by Lord Ashcroft, the first of its kind for two years.
Labour isn't beating the Conservatives, UKIP is. Forget moving to the centre, or worrying about being the nasty party, if the Conservatives want to win they have to get votes back from UKIP.
However, the survey shows Labour has made no further progress in its Tory-held targets since 2011. In a similar poll two years ago, Lord Ashcroft found Labour on 44 per cent in their targets, compared to 43 per cent today. Support for the Tories over the same period has slumped by six points from 35 per cent to 29 per cent.
Throughout the marginal seats the Conservatives scored best on controlling immigration, reducing Britain’s deficit, standing up for UK interests in Europe, cutting welfare dependency, fighting crime and providing strong defence to protect Britain’s security.
Labour was in the lead on the economy and jobs, the NHS and education while the Lib Dems were rated best on only one issue - the environment.
Marginal voters were more likely to see the Tories as “clear about where they stand for,” “willing to take tough decisions for the long term” and “competent and capable.” Labour were most likely to “share my values” and “be concerned about people like me”.
Ed Milliband may become Prime Minister, but not by anything amazing he does, simply by the fact that he will gain all the marginals due to a split in the right wing vote.
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Or a load of bollox.
It's gotta be a lot easier for them to reel in voters who are swimming familiar waters to the right than having to fish less familiar water to the left.
Vote UKIP get Ed shouldn't be an overly difficult pup to sell nearer the date.
Why would it be a load of bollox? It is in the marginals that elections are won or lost. This poll is showing a significantly bigger swing to Labour than the national polls -whatever the reason for that may be. Good news for Labour, very worrying for the Tories and perhaps more evidence that they have virtually no chance of getting a majority at the next election.
Bit like David Owen etc helping Thatcher to a massive majority in1983.
I'm not so sure, I think there's a lot of Tory voters ready to give Cameron a political bloody nose and will do it with a smile on their faces.
I've always found the tory voters I know to be a pragmatic bunch. They'd give Cameron a bloody nose hoping to influence his next decision but not to hand the job to the opposition.
Yeah, although UKIP are a worry for the election, I think when push comes to shove most Conservatives will hold their noses and vote for Cameron; at least he has pledged an in/out EU referendum, even if he is going to support staying in.
The electorate is probably a bit smarter than that.
The Tory's I know are a pragmatic bunch and realise this a poor imitation of a Tory Government and the two main party's are so similar, it's time to look elsewhere.
Weren't people saying "vote Lib Dem, get Labour" before the last GE. The opposite happened.
Voting UKIP in the European elections would send a clear message to the major Parties.
Voting UKIP in the GE would simply end up with the wrong results for those who defect.
The other thing is that UKIP will struggle to get enough credible candidates in the GE. In the EU elections all anyone is doing is voting for a Party.
Exactly - very little difference except at the margins. More or less the same cuts, same economic policies, same ex Goldman Sachs banker running the bank of England, same printing money/debasing our savings and buying votes with money borrowed from our grandkids.
Most UKIP voters may well think - what the h*ll. Either way we end up with a PPE graduate from Oxford who has never had a proper job playing school boy politics running the country.
You can say the same about Cameron the difference being he only became Prime Minister with the help from the Lib Dems.
The Conservatives will then sweep into Downing street in 2020, and rule for another four terms as they did under MT and JM.
UKIP will push the Conservatives further to the right, making them rule the country as it always should be.
So you're basically admitting that you value party politics above the governance of the country?
No party can "meed the needs" of everyone.
how's that then?
it surely is one of the fundamental principals of government.
No change of strategy required IMO.
To give one example, consider the NHS's inability to provide chemotherapy that costs £20,000 a year and makes little difference to the chances of survival. A party that insisted on unlimited funding for cancer treatment would find that there were other needs it couldn't meet.
The principle that politicians do what it right for the country went out of the window a long time ago.
It could be, to everyone's surprise, that the LibDems benefit from disenchantment.