I think New Zealand have got this victory, barring rain interfering. It's a disappointing performance by England, similar to their loss in the WI - they let NZ score way too many from the trouble they were in 1st innings and then scored way too few after being 200-1 yesterday.
England aren't a consistent side at all these days. I can still see them having some purple patches against Australia though and could edge some low-scoring tests to get a win or two, but their overall inconsistent performance level will make it unlikely for them to regain the Ashes.
Stokes/Buttler/Ali are basically a lottery in terms of run scoring - very flimsy - none of them are 'solid' batsmen in difficult conditions, unlike Root above them. Bell is going through one of his drawn-out lesser phases of form, Ballance hasn't looked great against decent bowling lately, etc.
On the flipside, Broad is looking like he's coming in to some form, Cook is looking solid again and Wood has potential.
I still don't feel the side is balanced. Ali&Stokes feel like ineffective part time bowlers a lot of the time - in terms of their impact. Ali is a bit disappointing in how little he's progressed, I expected a bit more from him.
I just wish we had 6 solid batsmen and 4 solid bowlers, instead of this grey area we currently have. It's all well and good to try and develop Stokes/Ali into proper all-rounders but it often leads to problems when they don't perform either role in a match. Weakens the whole side.
I think NZ will set a score beyond England, but purely because of the weather. I honestly don't understadn why 300+ is still looked at as a big no-no to chase in 4th innings. As NZ showed today, on certain good slowish pitches that haven't disintegrated, when the sun is out and the ball is old batting isnt hard at all. In fact go back 6 or 7 years and 4th innings at Lords used to be a quite easy bat. Didnt Eng draw against India, SriL and South Africa when bowling and needing ten 4th innings wkts to win the match?
I think historically that both the scoring rate of test match cricket and the terrible wickets meant 300+ wasn't gettable either because too little time left in the match or the wicket a minefield. But life has moved on and there's been some huge 4th innings scores in late 90s and 21st century, most to draw a match admittedly.
But as i said i think we need an instant destruction of NZ tail followed by sun and no swing to stand any chance of chasing down whatever is set. Damp swinging conditions like the second new ball that wiped Eng out this morning (Sunday) and its NZ for the taking.
I am getting the impression that you don't believe me.
No i do believe you. But as I posted yesterday ( or was it Saturday night ), would we have seen posts about Stoke in before Ali had Stokes got a score ? No we wouldn't. We can all post opinion with the benefit of hindsight.
I am sorry but why ????? They want to win this match not draw it
Why do they want to win it? They are 1-0 up in the series. If it rains for the rest of the match they win the series 1-0 so what is wrong with hoping for rain?
Why do they want to win it? They are 1-0 up in the series. If it rains for the rest of the match they win the series 1-0 so what is wrong with hoping for rain?
Because you go into a match to win it, not to draw it
You start out with the intention of winning it but when the opposition make a score that England won't be able to chase down you start hoping for rain
Do you want to see England lose this test and draw the series 1-1 or win the series 1-0 after rain intervenes and this test ends in a draw
Option 3 ( which your negativity doesn't seem to allow ) England win 2-0.
Arguments sake - 500 to chase in 5 sessions. Run rate would be 3 an over. Gettable. I am not saying it is probable, because it isn't, but i am saying you don't dismiss it.
Even Ladbrokes haven't written England off. 7/1 to win still.
Option 3 ( which your negativity doesn't seem to allow ) England win 2-0.
Arguments sake - 500 to chase in 5 sessions. Run rate would be 3 an over. Gettable. I am not saying it is probable, because it isn't, but i am saying you don't dismiss it.
Even Ladbrokes haven't written England off. 7/1 to win still.
Oh come on. Now I know you're on a wind-up. You expect this flaky batting line-up to chase nigh on 500 runs
Oh come on. Now I know you're on a wind-up. You expect this flaky batting line-up to chase nigh on 500 runs
Not on a wind up at all, just not clearly dismissing it like you are. And if you care to read my post, which you havent, you will see I said it isnt probably just not impossible.
If i were you i would wager every penny i have on a NZ win because the odds are a very good 2/5. You are that confident so go for it.
No i do believe you. But as I posted yesterday ( or was it Saturday night ), would we have seen posts about Stoke in before Ali had Stokes got a score ? No we wouldn't. We can all post opinion with the benefit of hindsight.
Why do they want to win it? They are 1-0 up in the series. If it rains for the rest of the match they win the series 1-0 so what is wrong with hoping for rain?
2-0 is better than 1-0.
The weather makes it more difficult but all England have to do is bat normally. However, to win, they would need less than 300 in a full days play tomorrow.
Option 3 ( which your negativity doesn't seem to allow ) England win 2-0.
Arguments sake - 500 to chase in 5 sessions. Run rate would be 3 an over. Gettable. I am not saying it is probable, because it isn't, but i am saying you don't dismiss it.
Even Ladbrokes haven't written England off. 7/1 to win still.
Comments
Probably around the same time I said what the 6 national lottery numbers were
for his grandfather who passed away during the week
His grandfather passed away this week
England aren't a consistent side at all these days. I can still see them having some purple patches against Australia though and could edge some low-scoring tests to get a win or two, but their overall inconsistent performance level will make it unlikely for them to regain the Ashes.
Stokes/Buttler/Ali are basically a lottery in terms of run scoring - very flimsy - none of them are 'solid' batsmen in difficult conditions, unlike Root above them. Bell is going through one of his drawn-out lesser phases of form, Ballance hasn't looked great against decent bowling lately, etc.
On the flipside, Broad is looking like he's coming in to some form, Cook is looking solid again and Wood has potential.
I still don't feel the side is balanced. Ali&Stokes feel like ineffective part time bowlers a lot of the time - in terms of their impact. Ali is a bit disappointing in how little he's progressed, I expected a bit more from him.
I just wish we had 6 solid batsmen and 4 solid bowlers, instead of this grey area we currently have. It's all well and good to try and develop Stokes/Ali into proper all-rounders but it often leads to problems when they don't perform either role in a match. Weakens the whole side.
(EDIT: Sorry that was rambling a bit!)
I think historically that both the scoring rate of test match cricket and the terrible wickets meant 300+ wasn't gettable either because too little time left in the match or the wicket a minefield. But life has moved on and there's been some huge 4th innings scores in late 90s and 21st century, most to draw a match admittedly.
Even NZ over here in 2004 Eng chased 280 twice in 3 test matches:
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/series/index.html?season=2004;view=season
But as i said i think we need an instant destruction of NZ tail followed by sun and no swing to stand any chance of chasing down whatever is set. Damp swinging conditions like the second new ball that wiped Eng out this morning (Sunday) and its NZ for the taking.
I am getting the impression that you don't believe me.
I am sorry but why ????? They want to win this match not draw it
No i do believe you. But as I posted yesterday ( or was it Saturday night ), would we have seen posts about Stoke in before Ali had Stokes got a score ? No we wouldn't. We can all post opinion with the benefit of hindsight.
Why do they want to win it? They are 1-0 up in the series. If it rains for the rest of the match they win the series 1-0 so what is wrong with hoping for rain?
I highly doubt England are in a position to win this now
Because you go into a match to win it, not to draw it
5 sessions still left in this game.
England wont be able to bat 5 sessions and even if they did the run rate england bat at wont get us close to the score
I can't see England chasing this down.........at this rate it will be 500 ahead by lunch
You start out with the intention of winning it but when the opposition make a score that England won't be able to chase down you start hoping for rain
Do you want to see England lose this test and draw the series 1-1 or win the series 1-0 after rain intervenes and this test ends in a draw
Option 3 ( which your negativity doesn't seem to allow ) England win 2-0.
Arguments sake - 500 to chase in 5 sessions. Run rate would be 3 an over. Gettable. I am not saying it is probable, because it isn't, but i am saying you don't dismiss it.
Even Ladbrokes haven't written England off. 7/1 to win still.
Oh come on. Now I know you're on a wind-up. You expect this flaky batting line-up to chase nigh on 500 runs
T20 has a lot to answer for....:p
Or was it the England bowling....
Not on a wind up at all, just not clearly dismissing it like you are. And if you care to read my post, which you havent, you will see I said it isnt probably just not impossible.
If i were you i would wager every penny i have on a NZ win because the odds are a very good 2/5. You are that confident so go for it.
EDIT - Now 8/15 so even better value for you now
2-0 is better than 1-0.
The weather makes it more difficult but all England have to do is bat normally. However, to win, they would need less than 300 in a full days play tomorrow.
500 getable in 5 sessions ?????