Netflix abandons "Terra Nova"
Residents Fan
Posts: 9,204 Forum Member
✭
Netflix aren't going to save "Terra Nova":
http://www.avclub.com/articles/netflix-decides-bringing-back-terra-nova-isnt-such,71489/
Somehow not encouraged by analogies likening it to an expensive misfire in need of constant costly repair and ultimately of interest to only a select group of nerds, Netflix has officially passed on picking up Terra Nova, ending two weeks of negotiations and suppressed “extinction” jokes.
http://www.avclub.com/articles/netflix-decides-bringing-back-terra-nova-isnt-such,71489/
0
Comments
I don't think it was as unlikely to happen as many think, certainly no more unlikely the Cable TV supplier DirectTV saving Friday Night Lights and Damages. Like DirectTV with these shows Netflix wouldn't have cared about the shows making them a profit directly as its more about the long game for them as they want people to subscribe because once they are most will remain subscribed (same premise premium cable as HBO and Showtime work on as well).
Netflix need original content to move to the next level and it's why the outbid premium cable, basic cable and broadcast networks for House of Cards which is due to air this year as well as Lilyhammer which has just finished its first season and the two upcoming shows Hemlock Grove and Orange is the a new Black.
New shows however require hit shows to get people watching, especially for a subscription service which is why they picked up Arrested Development and why they would seriously consider Terra Nova. Even now I wouldn't be surprised to see the deal be back on as the current impasse could be both sides trying to negotiate a better deal. Although I do think the International rights are almost certainly a problem, Fox need to keep hold of the Internatinal rights to make their money but doing so almost certainly reduces the licence fee that Netflix will pay as it will only help their US business.
If its not Terra Nova I would put money on Netflix picking up another cancelled show or maybe even more than one as they need something with a following, even if that following isn't good enough to keep it on broadcast TV to drive subscribers and keep them around for their original programming offerings.
Alcatraz perhaps?(if it gets cancelled). Unlike TN, it is relatively cheap.
Netflix are sure to take on one of these shows sooner or later.
As expensive as Terra Nova is I would say its got more chance of being saved by someone than Alcatraz has.
After all Alcatraz is cheap becaue it was thrown in as a package deal by WB & Bad Robot to sweeten the Fringe deal. WB effectively took a hit to keep Fringe on the air so it could reap both the syndication reward that getting to 88 episodes brings as well as keep cashing in on the strong international sales.
As Alcatraz's international sales are relatively weak I don't see WB being willing to cut a better deal with any other possible outlet, infact they may not even be willing to even agree to Fox's current fees.
Certainly I think FOX has more wiggle room on the licence fee due to Terra Novas international sales than WB has with Alcatraz and I also think Netflix would be willing to pay more for Terra Nova than it would Alcatraz as it will generate more column inches
Great post. I understand what you're getting at. But I think DirecTV are an exception here, are there any other satellite TV broadcasters that have picked up cancelled shows before? No. Have there been any online streaming sites that have picked up cancelled shows before? No. It took Netflix six years after the cancellation of Arrested Development to pick it up for new episodes - another exception here I think. So when you look at it like that, the chances of it happening were slim to begin with. I guess that was the point I was making in my original post.
As I said before, there's always chatter about Netflix or some other online streaming site picking up cancelled TV shows and then nothing comes of it. Sometimes I just think it's fans making up rumours on the Internet and no serious talks even took place. So it's hard to hold out any hope for these situations.
Maybe there were serious negotiations between FOX/Terra Nova producers and Netflix or maybe there weren't. I don't know. But I'm sure the fact that Terra Nova is the most expensive TV show in history didn't help the producers' cause at all. I doubt Netflix could maintain the cost of producing a show like that to be honest.
Hopefully, one of these cancelled shows will be picked up soon though.
Arrested Development. Or has that deal fallen through as well?
I've amended my post
By the way, I agree Alcatraz would have more of a chance of being picked up due to its cheap cost to produce. We'll see if the producers will try that route once the inevitable cancellation is announced.
I see where you coming from. What you've got consider is that now that more and more people are connected and most are recording shows. It's becoming more of possibility for these shows to be resurrected or jump straight to one of these services. Look at some shows right now, some amazing shows out there are getting slaughtered in live ratings, not because there crap because people just don't want watch them with adverts or at that specific time.
Terra and nova on netflix stupid idea as you stated because of cost. I do however feel you will see near future if the cost reasonable netflix picking up a variety of shows. It only make sense to expand there selection. Obviously this depends on how arrested development works out for them.
Cost to produce means very little. The broadcaster doesn't pick up the whole cost so even if a shows the most expensive to produce it doesn't mean it's the most expensive show for the broadcaster and vies versa.
We know that Fox the a network was making a profit off Terra Nova (I suspect the cancellation was as much to do with timing than cost as its a show where a decision couldn't be left till after the new pilots came due to the production time required) and the way Fox the production arm went about shopping it around means they almost certainly made a healthy return on it.
I'm pretty sure Terra Novas licence fee wasn't the highest the network paid this year (Would imagine House, Idol, X-Faxtor and Glee were all higher) and that International rights are profitable enough for lower fees to be charged and still produce a profit.
But the broadcaster is paying for most of it, isn't it? And I'm guessing these online streaming sites like Netflix don't have the same ridiculous big-budgets like the network channels do in the US, so they won't a lot of money to throw about for something expensive like Terra Nova. Picking up Arrested Development makes sense as it was a sitcom and they are usually quite cheap to produce, not to mention it has a loyal rabid fanbase. So wouldn't surprise me if they picked up Alcatraz too, but I'm not holding my breath to be honest.
As you'll read in this article: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2111085/Steven-Spielberg-dinosaur-drama-Terra-Nova-cancelled-season.html
The show cost around £100 million to make for just 13 episodes, making it the most expensive TV series in broadcasting history.
True. I agree totally here. The way people watch TV is definitely changing due to the Internet and modern life unfortunately. But right now, there doesn't to be seem any real effort by these parties to pick these cancelled shows up. Only Internet chatter.
Indeed.
Terra Nova did not perform in the ratings nearly as well as FOX expected. The fact that it cost so much didn't help matters, hence they cancelled it.
I'm not sure if FOX were making profit on Terra Nova. Sure, Terra Nova's international sales may have been strong and whatnot, but at the end of the day, if a show doesn't perform well enough in the ratings - it is losing money for the network. I suspect Terra Nova was losing more money than making money for FOX. Fringe is having the same problem at the moment. I seem to remember one of the FOX execs recently saying that Fringe is losing money for the network (due to its bad ratings) despite its popularity and strong international sales. So I doubt the situation was any different with Terra Nova.
Netflix is currently making $21 million a month. That's after taxes and expenses. Of course it's just a fraction of what they make, because the cost of the content is so high.
Their revenue is at $274 million/mo.. but content licensing, bandwidth, payroll, and all the other operating expenses brings it down to their net profit of $21 million/mo.
They absolutely could afford to produce Terra Nova.. but I doubt they'd increase their subscription base enough to make it worth the expenditure.
I just think the possibility is getting bigger. It all comes down to if there being big enough audience to increase there Subs. I don't ever think there was possibility of Terra nova getting picked up by them.
You don't ? It's certain to be cancelled.
I don't agree
I don't see why
They don't really ever talk about how production costs are split however as the real money isn't made by the Broadcaster but by the production company off international rights, Home Media and offnet rights I doubt there's many shows on TV where the split is greater than 50/50 (perhaps something like Idol might be)
And Terra Nova was no where as expensive as people make out. The 2 hour pilot was expensive and came in at around $14mill. A lot of that came down to Torrential rain disrupting the pilots production.
After that each episode had a budget of $4mill which isn't that much higher. The Average for a Broadcast Network show after all is said to be $3mill, with Basic Cable being an avg of $2mill while most shows on premium cable such as HBO, Showtiem and Starz coming in at over $5mill and episode (First season of Game of Thrones came in at around $6mill an episode and got a 15% hike for season 2, Rome cost nearly 9 and on Starz Camelot was costing $7mill)
And Alcatraz won't be picked up by Netflix, it's ratings are worse than Terra Nova's so it's not got a great home fanbase and it's international rights are weak. There is little to drive any real effort to find it a new home on the production side as it was only ever a loss leader to ensure Fox kept Fringe on the air to reach syndication levels.
If anything Fringe is more likely to be saved by Netflix than Alcatraz as the production side would be more willing to do a deal due to the international sales still being strong despite falling ratings (plus for Netflix Fringe will create more column inches than Alcatraz)
Fox said themselves that Terra Nova made the Network money. It obviously wasn't as profitable as they would have liked but I suspect if they could have had more time to see how their pilots came out they would have gone with a second season (and no doubt come to a better deal with the studio on the licence fee for the show). The longer post production time didn't allow this, to make it on the fall schedule they needed an answer which almost certainly forced the networks hand.
Here's a tutorial if you want to make one yoursef(get your parents permission before you start using the kitchen table!!!:D:D)
http://girlygamer.com.au/2011/11/how-to-make-the-nerf-terra-nova-pistol-tutorial/
Available from Amazon- I may be gone for some time;)
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Nerf-N-Strike-Nite-Finder-EX-3/dp/B000WTWZC0
Because of massive drop in ratings. there is just no way in this world they will renew it.
I don't think it's anything to do with the likes of Netflix that more shows haven't been picked up. Deals to switch networks are complex enough which is why most talks break down but with Streaming services it's harder as its a new technology which doesn't have decades of rules that have been constructed to dictate things like residuals. It's a new frontier and we have seen how Big Media is scared and distrustful of anything that's new.
It will become more common but it needs more deals to go through and set a precident and build up trust first.
The money and desire however is there from the likes of Netflix, after all you don't outbid the broadcast networks and HBO to acquire 'House of Cards' which has a production budget of $100mill for 26 episodes without the money and desire being there to have quality exclusive content available to subscribers
Ratings have fallen off a cliff especially in the 18-49 demo
Episode 1&2 3.3
Episode3 3
Episode4 2.8
Episode5 2.3
Episode6 1.9
Episode7 1.8
Episode8 1.9
Episode9 1.8
Episode10 1.6
Episode11 1.6
Episode12 1.5
Episode13 1.5
And most importantly it's only cheap for Fox as it was thrown in to get Fringe renewed as they needed 1 more season to get it in syndication. It's reached that level now and Alcatraz will have to stand on its own two feet which I don't think it can do. Its ratings are such that it could only ever go on a Friday which would see ratings drop off atleast another couple of points so Fox would want a reduction in the fee and there is no way International sales are strong enough to support that, I doubt it's making the production side money even now as WB/Bad robot are already said to be taking most of the costs anyway