The 2015 Oscars Thread

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  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    dodrade wrote: »
    I suspect Boyhood may not do as well as some think, it was released in July and academy voters have short memories regardless of how much they liked it at the time, look what happened to Saving Private Ryan.

    Time will tell, and to a degree you have a point, but it has a lot in it's favour.

    Firstly, this is probably the best recieved film critically for more than a decade. Secondly, in spite of being a limited release film, it did make a pretty big impact because of it's concept, so awareness is good. Thirdly, the concept itself, rather like Gravity last year in a different way, makes it stand out from the crowd. Fourthly, the director is seen as being long overdue recognition.

    Looking at films released since that were touted as contenders - none of them have managed to overshadow it. Films like Selma and The Imitation Games, for example, had some buzz after their screenings and have remained solid contenders, but haven't really built on that initial buzz. They haven't developed serious momentum. Also some other expected contenders have failed to pop, like Unbroken, or lost momentum, like Foxcatcher.

    I think The Grand Budapest Hotel is this years early release thats going to fail to get the recognition it deserved.

    eta: Saving Private Ryan was nominated for 11 oscars and won 5, including best director, hardly something to be sneezed at!

    and Silence in the Lambs was released in the February of the year it won for ;)
  • MrSuperMrSuper Posts: 18,543
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    dodrade wrote: »
    I suspect Boyhood may not do as well as some think, it was released in July and academy voters have short memories regardless of how much they liked it at the time, look what happened to Saving Private Ryan.

    I fully expect this to claim the top prize of Best Picture. I don't think it's guaranteed, but i do expect it to win. The reason i say it's not guaranteed is because of two words - Harvey Weinstein. If he gets his way then The Imitation Game could come out on top. If i had to choose between Boyhood and TIG, i would certainly pick Boyhood.
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    MrSuper wrote: »
    I fully expect this to claim the top prize of Best Picture. I don't think it's guaranteed, but i do expect it to win. The reason i say it's not guaranteed is because of two words - Harvey Weinstein. If he gets his way then The Imitation Game could come out on top. If i had to choose between Boyhood and TIG, i would certainly pick Boyhood.

    My hunch is that Harvey will channel his energys in the best actor category, as much of the acclaim for the film was around BC. However it may be in vain this year.
  • MrSuperMrSuper Posts: 18,543
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    Muttley76 wrote: »
    My hunch is that Harvey will channel his energys in the best actor category, as much of the acclaim for the film was around BC. However it may be in vain this year.

    Never underestimate the power of Weinstein. Cumberbatch could sneak it, 'sneak' being the operative word. In terms of a powerhouse performance it's Keaton's to lose. I don't think he will.
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    MrSuper wrote: »
    Never underestimate the power of Weinstein. Cumberbatch could sneak it, 'sneak' being the operative word. In terms of a powerhouse performance it's Keaton's to lose. I don't think he will.

    Looking at his track record, I'd never under estimate him! ;-)

    I do agree re: Keaton, he will also benefit a lot from good will towards him.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 23,847
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    Muttley76 wrote: »
    Time will tell, and to a degree you have a point, but it has a lot in it's favour.

    Firstly, this is probably the best recieved film critically for more than a decade. Secondly, in spite of being a limited release film, it did make a pretty big impact because of it's concept, so awareness is good. Thirdly, the concept itself, rather like Gravity last year in a different way, makes it stand out from the crowd. Fourthly, the director is seen as being long overdue recognition.

    Looking at films released since that were touted as contenders - none of them have managed to overshadow it. Films like Selma and The Imitation Games, for example, had some buzz after their screenings and have remained solid contenders, but haven't really built on that initial buzz. They haven't developed serious momentum. Also some other expected contenders have failed to pop, like Unbroken, or lost momentum, like Foxcatcher.

    I think The Grand Budapest Hotel is this years early release thats going to fail to get the recognition it deserved.

    eta: Saving Private Ryan was nominated for 11 oscars and won 5, including best director, hardly something to be sneezed at!

    and Silence in the Lambs was released in the February of the year it won for ;)

    Silence of the Lambs win was exceptional as the competition was particularly poor that year (Prince of Tides anyone?)

    I still think Saving Private Ryan would have won best picture had it been released in Q4 of 1998.

    I think the Imitation Game and The theory of everything could cancel each other out, you wait years for biopics of famous British scientists and then two come at once. In another year one or both could have had King's Speech style success.
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    dodrade wrote: »
    I still think Saving Private Ryan would have won best picture had it been released in Q4 of 1998.

    Maybe, maybe not. While I personally think it was the best of the five films shortlisted that year, I think its fair to say the quality dips a lot after the first 30 minutes and that the mid section of the film is actually quite unremarkable.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 23,847
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    Muttley76 wrote: »
    Maybe, maybe not. While I personally think it was the best of the five films shortlisted that year, I think its fair to say the quality dips a lot after the first 30 minutes and that the mid section of the film is actually quite unremarkable.

    Probably true, but how much of Shakespeare in Love does anyone remember these days?
  • GrecomaniaGrecomania Posts: 19,591
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    TBH, most Potential Oscar winners make sure they release later in the year nowadays. So it's much less likely they'll have ones from earlier in the year in comtention. The very fact that most of us haven't watched many of the films mentioned yet.
  • stripedcatstripedcat Posts: 6,689
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    I think Rosamund Pike is the front runner for Best Actress for Gone Girl.

    The Lego Movie will get Best Animated Film - that's pretty much guaranteed.

    I'd say Gillan Flynn looks likely to get Best Adapted Screenplay for Gone Girl.

    I think that David Fincher and Chris Nolan will probably get nominated for Best Director. Who will win. Still to early to tell.
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    TBH, most Potential Oscar winners make sure they release later in the year nowadays. So it's much less likely they'll have ones from earlier in the year in comtention. The very fact that most of us haven't watched many of the films mentioned yet.

    Yes, it is very true that the trend is for studios to hold back films they think will be oscar contenders till later in the year, and you are right most times the winner does come from this part of the year.

    But every year as well some of the films that studios think are going to be contenders don't float - Monuments Men last year, Unbroken looks like being one from this year - because at times how the audience will recieve a film can be misjudged. And it is still possible for films earlier in the year to hold on to the monteum if they make a big impact.

    In a way, Boyhood has had a journey a little like The Artist, which only really came on the rader in a big way after it was shown at Cannes in May 2011 ( although it did stil have a little more of a profile, tbf, after all The Artist didn't even have international distribution rights at this point!). It was only after it was shown at Sundance in January that it started to seen as a film that could be a classic. But in both cases, even then, there was no expectation they could challenge much bigger films with far bigger studios backing them. I like to see these small films coming through, as in a sense they suceed in spite of rather than because of the camapaging that goes on.

    It's why it makes me sad to hear some people descrbe a film like The Artist as being "oscar bait" - as though a film made in Fance by an obscure director and cast for a tiny budget (to which cast and crew had to chip in to make the film) and shown at Canne with no hype whatsoever which had no international distibution rights until around 6 months before the oscars was made for the sole purpose of winning oscars.
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    dodrade wrote: »
    Probably true, but how much of Shakespeare in Love does anyone remember these days?

    i don't know about that, it's been made in to a major west end show....;-)

    http://shakespeareinlove.com

    Seriously though, I've never even seen the film as it's just not my cup of tea. My favortie films that year were Pleasentville and The Truman Show so what do I know ;)
  • dee123dee123 Posts: 46,268
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    Boyhood to me looks to be in the driver's seat. It's different but not different enough for the academy to ignore it. LOL. Do i make sense?
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    Update on the major critics awards:

    LA Film Critics:

    BEST PICTURE:
    BOYHOOD
    RUNNER-UP: "THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL"

    BEST DIRECTOR:
    RICHARD LINKLATER
    "BOYHOOD"
    RUNNER-UP: WES ANDERSON ("THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL")

    BEST ACTOR:
    TOM HARDY
    "LOCKE"
    RUNNER-UP: MICHAEL KEATON ("BIRDMAN")


    BEST ACTRESS:
    PATRICIA ARQUETTE
    "BOYHOOD"
    RUNNER-UP: JULIANNE MOORE ("STILL ALICE")


    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
    J.K. SIMMONS
    WHIPLASH
    RUNNER UP: EDWARD NORTON ("BIRDMAN")

    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    AGATA KULESZA
    "IDA"
    RUNNER-UP: RENE RUSSO ("NIGHTCRAWLER")

    BEST SCREENPLAY:
    WES ANDERSON
    “THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL"
    RUNNER-UP: ALEJANDRO GONZÁLEZ IÑÁRRITU, NICOLÁS GIACOBONE, ALEXANDER DINELARIS, JR. AND ARMANDO BO ("BIRDMAN")

    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY:
    EMMANUEL LUBEZKI
    "BIRDMAN"
    RUNNER-UP: DICK POPE ("MR TURNER")

    BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN:
    ADAM STOCKHAUSEN
    "THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL"
    RUNNER-UP: ONDREJ NEKVASIL ("SNOWPIERCER")


    BEST EDITING:
    SANDRA ADAIR
    "BOYHOOD"
    RUNNER-UP: BARNEY PILLING ("THE GRAND BUDAPEST HOTEL")


    BEST MUSIC SCORE:
    JONNY GREENWOOD, "INHERENT VICE" AND MICA LEVI, "UNDER THE SKIN" (TIE)



    BEST FOREIGN-LANGUAGE FILM:
    "IDA"
    DIRECTED BY PAWEL PAWLIKOWSKI
    RUNNER-UP: "WINTER SLEEP" DIRECTED BY NURI BILGE CEYLAN


    BEST DOCUMENTARY/NON-FICTION FILM:
    " CITIZENFOUR"
    DIRECTED BY LAURA POITRAS
    RUNNER-UP: "LIFE ITSELF" DIRECTED BY STEVE JAMES


    BEST ANIMATION:
    "THE TALE OF THE PRINCESS KAGUYA" DIRECTED BY ISAO TAKAHATA
    RUNNER-UP: "THE LEGO MOVIE" DIRECTED BY PHIL LORD, CHRISTOPHER MILLER

    NEW GENERATION:
    AVA DUVERNAY
    "SELMA"

    THE DOUGLAS EDWARDS EXPERIMENTAL/
    INDEPENDENT FILM/VIDEO AWARD:
    WALTER REUBEN "THE DAVID WHITING STORY"


    CAREER ACHIEVEMENT:
    GENA ROWLANDS

    Boston Society of Film Critics Film Critics:

    Best Picture - Boyhood

    Best Actor - Michael Keaton for Birdman

    Best Actress - Marion Cotillard for The Immigrant and Two Days, One Night

    Best Supporting Actor - J. K. Simmons for Whiplash

    Best Supporting Actress - Emma Stone for Birdman

    Best Director - Richard Linklater for Boyhood

    Best Screenplay - (tie) Alejandro González Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris and Armando Bo for Birdman & Richard Linklater for Boyhood

    Best Cinematography - Emmanuel Lubezki for Birdman

    Best Documentary - Citizenfour

    Best Foreign-Language Film (awarded in memory of Jay Carr) - Two Days, One Night

    Best Animated Film - The Tale of The Princess Kaguya

    Best Film Editing (awarded in memory of Karen Schmeer) - Sandra Adair for Boyhood
    Best New Filmmaker (awarded in memory of David Brudnoy) - Dan Gilroy for Nightcrawler

    Best Ensemble Cast - Boyhood

    Best Use of Music in a Film - Inherent Vice


    New York Online Film Critics:

    Film: Boyhood

    Director: Richard Linklater - Boyhood

    Actor: Eddie Redmayne - The Theory of Everything

    Actress: Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night

    Supp. Actor: J.K. Simmons - Whiplash

    Supp. Actress: Patricia Arquette - Boyhood

    Screenplay: Birdman

    Animated Film: The LEGO Movie



    Boston Online Film Critics Association


    Film: Snowpiercer

    Director: Alejandro G. Inarritu - Birdman

    Actor: Brendan Gleeson - Calvary

    Actress: Marion Cotillard - Two Days, One Night

    Supp. Actor: Edward Norton - Birdman

    Supp. Actress: Tilda Swinton - Snowpiercer

    Screenplay: Calvary

    Animated Film: The LEGO Movie

    Ensemble: Birdman


    Worth noting that some of the film critic awards have seen Arquette inexplicably put in to the lead actress category (for definate the LA film critics, as she won there, and also the Boston Society of film critics, as Ty Burr tweeted to confirm that "general consensus here is that Arquette belongs in best actress category" ). FWIW, I fundamentally disagree with that decision - while she may be the heart and soul of the film, she clearly has a supporting part in it, and there are long stretches in which she does not appear.

    Anyway, that now being known makes it hard to use the critics awards in the supporting actress/actress category as much of a bench mark when it comes to who is going to get nominated come the major awards, where Arquette will most certainly be listed as a contender in the supporting actress category's.
  • LMLM Posts: 63,503
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    I agree. Arquette isn't the lead, she is the supporting. If you timed her total screen time out of the 2 hours and 40 minutes the film runs for, she is in it for perhaps 50 minutes.

    Then again, Nicole kidman bagged best actress for The Hours and she was only screen for 15 minutes. Same with best actor winner Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the lambs.
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    I agree. Arquette isn't the lead, she is the supporting. If you timed her total screen time out of the 2 hours and 40 minutes the film runs for, she is in it for perhaps 50 minutes.

    Then again, Nicole kidman bagged best actress for The Hours and she was only screen for 15 minutes. Same with best actor winner Anthony Hopkins in Silence of the lambs.

    I think the film studios themselves put forward the cast to be considered for particular categories for the oscars, so I assume that in those cases the studios put them forword. But with Boyhood, they have definitly stated Arquette should be considered for the suporting actress role.
  • LMLM Posts: 63,503
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    Well everywhere i read is that she is down for best supporting actress, so it would make sense for her to remain there.
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    Washington DC Area Film Critics Association Awards:


    Best Film:
    Boyhood

    Best Director:
    Richard Linklater (Boyhood)

    Best Actor:
    Michael Keaton (Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance))

    Best Actress:
    Julianne Moore (Still Alice)

    Best Supporting Actor:
    J.K. Simmons (Whiplash)

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Patricia Arquette (Boyhood)

    Best Acting Ensemble:
    Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)

    Best Youth Performance:
    Ellar Coltrane (Boyhood)

    Best Adapted Screenplay:
    Gillian Flynn (Gone Girl)

    Best Original Screenplay:
    Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Nicolás Giacobone, Alexander Dinelaris, Jr., Armando Bo (Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance))

    Best Animated Feature:
    The LEGO Movie

    Best Documentary:
    Life Itself

    Best Foreign Language Film:
    Force Majeure

    Best Art Direction:
    Production Designer: Adam Stockhausen, Set Decorator: Anna Pinnock (The Grand Budapest Hotel)

    Best Cinematography:
    Emmanuel Lubezki, ASC, AMC (Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance))

    Best Editing:
    Douglas Crise, Stephen Mirrione, ACE (Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance))

    Best Original Score:
    Mica Levi (Under the Skin)

    The Joe Barber Award for Best Portrayal of Washington, DC:
    Captain America: The Winter Soldier <<<< :o:D
  • LMLM Posts: 63,503
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    Golden globes are announced thursday i think.
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    Golden globes are announced thursday i think.

    Screen Actors Guild nominations Wednesday
    Golden Globe nominations Thursday

    Should give us an idea of the geniune runners and riders this year.


    Forgot to mention our own British Independet Film award winners, whoops....:blush:

    Best Director:
    Yann Demange for '71

    The Douglas Hickox Award [Best Debut Director]:
    Iain Forsyth and Jane Pollard for 20,000 Days on Earth

    Best Screenplay:
    Jon Ronson and Peter Straughan for Frank

    Best Actress:
    Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Belle

    Best Actor:
    Brendan Gleeson for Calvary

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Imelda Staunton for Pride

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Andrew Scott for Pride

    Most Promising Newcomer:
    Sameena Jabeen Ahmed for Catch Me Daddy

    Best Technical Achievement:
    Music - Stephen Rennicks for Frank

    The Richard Harris Award:
    Emma Thompson

    The Variety Award :
    Benedict Cumberbatch

    The Special Jury Prize:
    John Boorman

    Best British Short:
    The Karman Line

    Best Documentary:
    Next Goal Wins

    The Raindance Award :
    Luna

    Best British Independent Film :
    Pride

    Best International Independent Film:
    Boyhood

    Best Achievement in Production:
    The Goob


    Surprised that the Imitiain Games didn't win anything, though personally I do think Pride was the better film. Wondering if the latter might get a surprise nomination in the Comedy/Musical film category at the Golden Globes.
  • LMLM Posts: 63,503
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    Muttley76 wrote: »
    Screen Actors Guild nominations Wednesday
    Golden Globe nominations Thursday

    Should give us an idea of the geniune runners and riders this year.


    Forgot to mention our own British Independet Film award winners, whoops....:blush:

    Best Director:
    Yann Demange for '71

    The Douglas Hickox Award [Best Debut Director]:
    Iain Forsyth and Jane Pollard for 20,000 Days on Earth

    Best Screenplay:
    Jon Ronson and Peter Straughan for Frank

    Best Actress:
    Gugu Mbatha-Raw for Belle

    Best Actor:
    Brendan Gleeson for Calvary

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Imelda Staunton for Pride

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Andrew Scott for Pride

    Most Promising Newcomer:
    Sameena Jabeen Ahmed for Catch Me Daddy

    Best Technical Achievement:
    Music - Stephen Rennicks for Frank

    The Richard Harris Award:
    Emma Thompson

    The Variety Award :
    Benedict Cumberbatch

    The Special Jury Prize:
    John Boorman

    Best British Short:
    The Karman Line

    Best Documentary:
    Next Goal Wins

    The Raindance Award :
    Luna

    Best British Independent Film :
    Pride

    Best International Independent Film:
    Boyhood

    Best Achievement in Production:
    The Goob


    Surprised that the Imitiain Games didn't win anything, though personally I do think Pride was the better film. Wondering if the latter might get a surprise nomination in the Comedy/Musical film category at the Golden Globes.

    I would be surprised if the US recognised another LGBT film. Be great though if they did.
  • Muttley76Muttley76 Posts: 97,888
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    I would be surprised if the US recognised another LGBT film. Be great though if they did.

    it's an outside bet, but it's possible, especially as it's the Hollywood Foreign Press that vote on the Golden Globes :)
  • LMLM Posts: 63,503
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    Muttley76 wrote: »
    it's an outside bet, but it's possible, especially as it's the Hollywood Foreign Press that vote on the Golden Globes :)

    True

    I must be sure to watch the live stream of the nominations. and the SAGS and the oscars.
  • MrSuperMrSuper Posts: 18,543
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    stripedcat wrote: »
    I think Rosamund Pike is the front runner for Best Actress for Gone Girl..

    She isn't. Isn't going to happen.
    stripedcat wrote: »
    The Lego Movie will get Best Animated Film - that's pretty much guaranteed.

    Agreed. Not guaranteed, but it's the favourite.
    stripedcat wrote: »
    I'd say Gillan Flynn looks likely to get Best Adapted Screenplay for Gone Girl..

    A possible nomination, yes. Win it? No chance.
    stripedcat wrote: »
    I think that David Fincher and Chris Nolan will probably get nominated for Best Director. Who will win. Still to early to tell.

    Nope. With only 5 places up for grabs, both will NOT be nominated. That is guaranteed. It will be either one or the other. Or possibly neither. A lot of competition in this category. It's difficult to call.
  • dodradedodrade Posts: 23,847
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    Muttley76 wrote: »
    Yes, it is very true that the trend is for studios to hold back films they think will be oscar contenders till later in the year, and you are right most times the winner does come from this part of the year.

    But every year as well some of the films that studios think are going to be contenders don't float - Monuments Men last year, Unbroken looks like being one from this year - because at times how the audience will recieve a film can be misjudged. And it is still possible for films earlier in the year to hold on to the monteum if they make a big impact.

    In a way, Boyhood has had a journey a little like The Artist, which only really came on the rader in a big way after it was shown at Cannes in May 2011 ( although it did stil have a little more of a profile, tbf, after all The Artist didn't even have international distribution rights at this point!). It was only after it was shown at Sundance in January that it started to seen as a film that could be a classic. But in both cases, even then, there was no expectation they could challenge much bigger films with far bigger studios backing them. I like to see these small films coming through, as in a sense they suceed in spite of rather than because of the camapaging that goes on.

    It's why it makes me sad to hear some people descrbe a film like The Artist as being "oscar bait" - as though a film made in Fance by an obscure director and cast for a tiny budget (to which cast and crew had to chip in to make the film) and shown at Canne with no hype whatsoever which had no international distibution rights until around 6 months before the oscars was made for the sole purpose of winning oscars.

    The Artist was shot in Los Angeles, it's hardly a french film at all.
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