Just to put some numbers on the coefficient situation, so far England have accrued 71.5 points so far this season. To be in a position to overtake England, Italy would need to be on 73.0 points at this point. As it is they are on 51.5, some 21.5 points less than where they need to be.
So to catch England, Italy need score at least another 21.5 points in the rest of the season, plus six points for every seven that England get. Is that likely? Probably not.
However, it's not over quite yet. What slightly concerns me is the fact that Man City and (probably) Arsenal will not win their groups. Leicester will win their group, but if we're honest they got a decent draw and will face a tougher test in the last 16. Depending on what the draw throws up, it wouldn't be a huge surprise to see England with no teams in the quarter finals.
Juventus should win their group. A tie between them and Arsenal/Man City would be a crucial match and an England win would probably finish the job. If Napoli avoid defeat in Lisbon they will qualify for the last 16 and earn Italy five points. If they are knocked out, however, they will be in the Europa League.
It's worth remembering that wins in the Europa League count the same as wins in the Champions League. I guess the logic behind giving five bonus points for reaching the last 16 of the Champions League is to make up for the fact that the Europa League has an extra knock out round which offers up to four match points.
Both Man Utd and Southampton should qualify for the last 32. I don't have much confidence in Southampton progressing much further after Christmas, but you never know. Man Utd could go far, but they really could do with winning their group. Come February it could be Man Utd's best route into the Champions League. The same could be true for Tottenham. But I do worry that they won't make much effort in the last group game of the Champions League and get knocked out of Europe altogether.
Roma have already qualified as group winners in the Europa League and Fiorentina should join them. The worry has to be that we have a repeat of 2014-15 where Juventus go deep into the Champions League and Roma and Fiorentina go far in the Europa League. We should be okay, but it's not a done deal.