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Who will be foxtrotting off home first?
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welwynrose
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by river27:
“I think anyone with a decent fanbase, either celeb or pro, will be pretty safe for the first few weeks.

This means people like Tuffers, any ex/current Eastender, sports man/woman etc will be ok. However bad they are, the public will save them. It's the lesser known celebs and the less popular pros who will suffer.

Having said that, I don't know who will go! (Just hope it's not Martina and Matthew, my faves, ha!)

”

is he really that popular
Agent Krycek
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by xtjx01:
“There is no way Tuffers will be going anywhere, he could be a genuine contender.”

Really? Even at the height of his sporting days he was well known for being one of the laziest people ever, his nickname of 'The Cat' was to do with his ability to sleep anywhere, nothing to do with any cat like grace. Just can't see him putting in the hours necessary, plus, when it came to fielding, put it this way, I was more coordinated then him - I'd guess he's more Sergant then Ramps
*stargazer*
16-09-2009
I suspect you are right about Tuffers being more Sergeant than Ramps. He is what I call a marmite contestant. People will either love his cheeky chap humour or hate it!

Me? I can't wait!!!!!!! I think he could be very good entertainment value and I am pretty sure he will make it past quite a few weeks.
mindyann
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by welwynrose:
“is he really that popular”

He's as popular as winning I'm a Celebrity makes him, I guess.
yohinnchild
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by mindyann:
“He's as popular as winning I'm a Celebrity makes him, I guess.”

As popular as Kerry Katona then

Week One

Rav Wilding vs Chris Hollins

I can't see Rav being too good at the latin as he is just so big
Monkseal
16-09-2009
Tuffers won IAC 6 years ago in a series so bursting with other options that Linda Barker managed to finish 3rd.

(I do think Tuffers is fairly popular, and has the potential to be more so on the show if he plays his cards right but winning IAC in that instance isn't a great indicator of form. Ulrika went out very early on DOI but won Big Brother - different formats suit different people)
TeresaG
16-09-2009
I think that Tuffers will be quite popular and will stay in a few weeks. I'm not sure who will go home first at all. I guess we need to see them dance.
Sallyforth
16-09-2009
I think Chris might stay a bit longer than might be imagined. A lot of Breakfast TV viewers may support him (some of the Bill fans maybe) and Ola is still popular with a lot of people.
BuddyBontheNet
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by *stargazer*:
“I'm not so sure. Some of the male pros have huge fan bases as far as I can see, especially Matt Cutler. Some of the pros are more celebs to fans than the actual celebs!

My top choices this year are definitely guided by the pros not the celebs as I suspect many others would say the same.”

Can I ask what makes you say that about the size of pro fan bases? Please don't think I am being argumentative, as I am just genuinely curious (and a Matt fan). I would have though were were talking about a few hundred genuine die-hard devotees with maybe a few thousand keen but less devoted fans, if you know what I mean!

I think the Rumba is a terrible first Latin dance for any celeb to do, but for a male celeb the odds are really stacked against them imho.
WakingUpInVegas
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by BuddyBontheNet:
“I think the Rumba is a terrible first Latin dance for any celeb to do, but for a male celeb the odds are really stacked against them imho. ”

I feel sorry for the celebs who have to dance the rumba on their first week, like you said Buddy it's worse for the men as it's difficult. I wouldn't have liked tango and rumba on the first week. These couples could be in danger if they don't pull it off to a decent level
luckylady
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by WakingUpInVegas:
“Which couple do you think will be heading home first?

I think possibly Chris Hollins or Ricky Groves”

Impossible to say without seeing anyone dance yet
And also the public are a contrary lot, often voting for the worst dancers anyway just p*s the judges off! (JS and KG spring to mind)
Think I'll save my judgement till I've seen how they do
fizzy T
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by BuddyBontheNet:
“
I think the Rumba is a terrible first Latin dance for any celeb to do, but for a male celeb the odds are really stacked against them imho. ”

Agreed. It's a bit of a graveyard dance at the best of times! Although for the women if you get it quickly its not so bad. Alesha did it as her first dance and it didnt do her any harm!! I guess it may also depend on your pro, Matt is a bit of a master when it comes to the rumba!

Worst combination is probably a male celeb having to do the rumba with a ballroom specialist for a first dance!
Monkseal
16-09-2009
For what it's worth there's no difference between the number of men eliminated on a rumba and the number of women - 4 a piece (5 each if you include losing finallists)
cranford fan
16-09-2009
The rumba is a tough dance to do first up. On the other hand it gets it out of the way at a stage in the competition where most people aren't particularly good and nines and tens aren't being sprinkled around like confetti. If those dancing the rumba can nail their ballroom round they stand a good chance of going through and never having to dance the rumba again! I know for some it's a big if!
fizzy T
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by Monkseal:
“For what it's worth there's no difference between the number of men eliminated on a rumba and the number of women - 4 a piece (5 each if you include losing finallists)”

Thats interesting cos its always being mentioned that its harder for the celeb men than women. Thanks for that info.

Originally Posted by cranford fan:
“The rumba is a tough dance to do first up. On the other hand it gets it out of the way at a stage in the competition where most people aren't particularly good and nines and tens aren't being sprinkled around like confetti. If those dancing the rumba can nail their ballroom round they stand a good chance of going through and never having to dance the rumba again! I know for some it's a big if!”

Fair point. If you do an ok job with the rumba now its quite positive. An ok job on week 8 would probably get slated.
rickster1995
16-09-2009
i think martina can be the gabby logan of this series. technically the best dancer but the public dont warm to her but i think they might warm to her
WakingUpInVegas
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by cranford fan:
“The rumba is a tough dance to do first up. On the other hand it gets it out of the way at a stage in the competition where most people aren't particularly good and nines and tens aren't being sprinkled around like confetti. If those dancing the rumba can nail their ballroom round they stand a good chance of going through and never having to dance the rumba again! I know for some it's a big if!”

That's a really good point, the couples who have the rumba may be glad because if they can get through week 1 then they won't have to do it again. If you do a weak rumba later on in the competition it's much worse I think.
*stargazer*
16-09-2009
Originally Posted by BuddyBontheNet:
“Can I ask what makes you say that about the size of pro fan bases? Please don't think I am being argumentative, as I am just genuinely curious (and a Matt fan). I would have though were were talking about a few hundred genuine die-hard devotees with maybe a few thousand keen but less devoted fans, if you know what I mean!

I think the Rumba is a terrible first Latin dance for any celeb to do, but for a male celeb the odds are really stacked against them imho. ”

No problem. I think that when SCD started the pros were an unknown quantity and the celebs were the people that people had heard of.

But now the pros have become very established and I know loads of people who vote primarily for the pro not the celebrity. I am not just talking about people on forumland, but avid dance fans who like the style of particular professional.

Chatting to them they quite often mention the pros as much as, if not more than, the celeb partners.
soapgirlhere
17-09-2009
Originally Posted by BuddyBontheNet:
“Based on how popular a celeb with be with the public at the start of the series I'd say -

Week One - the bottom two will be Martina & Matt and Chris & Ola with the judges saving Martina & Matt

Week Two - the bottom two will be Zoe & James and Jo & Brendan with the judges saving Zoe & James (hedging my bets it could be Richard & Lilia instead of Zoe & James, but Jo & Brendan will still go home)

That was a hard choice!”

I agree with your week 1 choices, but think that maybe Richard and Lilia will be in the bottom 2 on the 2nd week.

It's so hard to tell though having not seen anyone dance yet.
FunkyFoxtrot
17-09-2009
Nearly everyone seems to have Chris down as an early exit, but i'm hoping that loyal Breakfast fans, plus Ola fans will keep him in...at least for a few weeks
footygirl
17-09-2009
Originally Posted by FunkyFoxtrot:
“Nearly everyone seems to have Chris down as an early exit, but i'm hoping that loyal Breakfast fans, plus Ola fans will keep him in...at least for a few weeks”

I agree - apparently he does know his left from his right foot, which is a start- and if it is true that he can dance he should be OK

I don't think any of the guys will be in the dance off this saturday - I think it is more likely to be an all girls dance off.

The following week - is a bit more clear cut for me. Jo and Brendan will in all likelihood end up in the dance off - and it could be Laila and Anton/ Richard and Lilia joining them - with Jo likely to go
CaroUK
17-09-2009
Would do wonders for Brendan's ego to see him go for an early bath!
Tissy
17-09-2009
Originally Posted by CaroUK:
“Would do wonders for Brendan's ego to see him go for an early bath!”

But how would the show cope without him
footygirl
17-09-2009
I think it would muddle along OK
thenetworkbabe
18-09-2009
Originally Posted by CaroUK:
“Would do wonders for Brendan's ego to see him go for an early bath!”

There may be an equality reason in the casting too - neither of the male pros in last year's final probably have front runners this year wheras some people who went early or have never got to the end may have.
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