Nearly time folks

Here's your home for my stats for this year. Unfortunately I'm likely to be missing for the Friday shows but I'll update any stats overnight. And as usual you can have live stats on Saturdays either here or on Twitter www.twitter.com/quizmike

And a fullish analysis during the week.

The stats thread for 2008 is still available here http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s...ight=stat+zone

Oh and as always, the stats are just for regular competition and do not include Christmas Specials or any Sports/Comic Relief dances

Anyway, lets start off looking at how brand new professionals have done in the past...

Welcome to our new professionals Aliona, Katya and Natalie. Go on and dazzle us! However history is not on your side.

Since series 2 when Darren triumphed with Jill in his first outing in Strictly, new professionals have not had the easiest time.

No new professional since Darren has made the final. The best showing is Vincent in series 4 when he finished fourth with Louisa Lytton.

Here is a list of how new pros have done in their first series (from series 3 onwards)

Series 3
Karen Hardy (6th out of 12 with Bill Turnbull)
Hanna Haarala (7/12 with Will Thorp)
Izabela Hannah (8/12 with Dennis Taylor)
Andrew Cuerden (11/12 with Jaye Jacobs)
Matt Cutler (12/12 with Siobhan Hayes)

Series 4
Vincent Simone (4/14 with Louisa Lytton)
James Jordan (10/14 with Georgina Bouzova)
Ola Jordan (11/14 with Spoony)
Flavia Cacace (did not finish with Jimmy Tarbuck)

Series 5
No new professionals

Series 6
Kristina Rhianoff (withdrew in 7th place out of 16 with John Sergeant)
Brian Fortuna (9/16 with Heather Small)
Hayley Holt (11/16 with Mark Foster)

So if you are thinking of placing a bet on a good celebrity with a new professional, should you rethink your wager? Or is about time for a novice to be victorious?

Coming soon are stats and trivia about the first dances of each series...

Thanks Quizmike, always interesting to read the stats. Can't wait for the trivia...

I don't think the trend will be bucked gotta say - Tuffers will do better than his ability dictates probably so Katya will do well but I can't see either Alona or Natalie being victorious and winning this year.

Welcome back Mike.

Excellent stats Mike.
Looking at them though, most of the new pro's have been given some real duffers.
If you don't have a decent celeb then there's nothing much you can do, however popular you are as a pro.

I love reading stats so will read this thread with interest

Hi there Mike!! Cannot wait for your stats and trivia!!

I will definitely be a regular visitor. Thanks Quizmike.

Thanks for a great thread once again Mike. I really enjoy your stats and trivia.

Interesting stuff Mike although I'm sure there are many more factors at play there.

With the exception of Louisa (who got the furtheest out of those listed) none of them were really contenders and most of them weren't well known themselves.

For the majority of the voting public, I don't think the pro makes that much difference.

I'm inclined to agree with you but I think the quality of the partnership makes a difference.

Thanks for doing this again Mike! It always makes for fascinating reading and has blown several myths out of the water in the past!

From a pro's perspective I'd have thought it would get a bit easier after the first series in terms of being more aware of the judge's and the public's expectations and also in terms of teaching and coreographing a novice so that could possibly contribute to a new pro's chances.

PS thanks for the stats Quizmike

looking forward to your stats Quizmike.

And hopefully a few Lazy Journo posts too?

Thanks for the stats quizmike

Re the new professionals, the professionals are popular as well as the celebs - so unless the new professionals have an outstandingly popular celeb, they have an uphill struggle.

Thanks for the thread Quizmike. I will be following with interest.

I'm looking forward to this too. Funny how this stuff is so addictively semi-fascinating. Thanks Mike!

It is a fairly well known fact but in case you didn’t know the first person to dance in each of the previous six series of Strictly have reached the final. All of them. It’s a quirk of fate but here’s the list of the first person to dance in each series...

Natasha Kaplinsky (Won)
Julian Clary (Third)
Darren Gough (Won)
Matt Dawson (Second)
Matt Di Angelo (Second)
Tom Chambers (Won)

So, who will dance first on Friday then?

What people may not realise though is that if you dance the waltz as your first dance, you are probably toast. Only Jill Halfpenny and Zoe Ball have danced a waltz as their first dance and reached the final.

And the first people out each series (and their first dance) have been...

Jason Wood (Waltz)
Quentin Wilson (Cha Cha)
Siobhan Hayes (Waltz)
Nicholas Owen (Waltz)
Brian Capron (Waltz)
Phil Daniels (Waltz)

(And Quentin Wilson scored the lowest ever score of 8 with his Cha Cha)

OK, so maybe things will be different this time with all couples dancing ballroom first. But I can only report about the past.

Next up, how did past champions score on their first dance? And how rubbish were some people before they went on their “journey”?

Here’s the top seven scores for the first dances over the last six series...

Zoe Ball & Ian Waite 35 (Waltz Series 3)

Penny Lancaster & Ian Waite 33 (Quickstep Series 5)

Kelly Brook & Brendan Cole 33 (Rumba Series 5)

Emma Bunton & Darren Bennett 33 (Quickstep Series 4)

Cherie Lunghi & James Jordan 33 (Foxtrot Series 6)

Colin Jackson & Erin Boag 32 (Cha Cha Series 3)

Austin Healy & Erin Boag 32 (Waltz Series 6)


So if you want a good start, dance with Erin or Ian.

But wait! Where are all the winners? And runners up? Were they all rubbish to start with? Well...yes! Here’s a selected list of other dancers and their first scores...

Natasha Kaplinsky & Brendan Cole 27 (Cha Cha Series 1)

Jill Halfpenny & Darren Bennett 27 (Waltz Series 2)

Denise Lewis & Ian Waite 31 (Waltz Series 2)

Darren Gough & Lilia Kopylova 19 (Cha Cha Series 3)

Mark Ramprakash & Karen Hardy 27 (Cha Cha Series 4)

Matt Dawson & Lilia Kopylova 19 (Cha Cha Series 4)

Alesha Dixon & Matt Cutler 31 (Rumba Series 5)

Matt Di Angelo & Flavia Cacace 23 (Cha Cha Series 5)

Tom Chambers & Camilla Dallerup 28 (Cha Cha Series 6)

Lisa Snowdon & Brendan Cole 22 (Salsa Series 6)

Rachel Stevens & Vincent Simone 31 (Salsa Series 6)


So the moral of the story? If you want to win Strictly, dance first, don’t get a new professional, don’t dance a waltz first, don’t get Erin or Ian as a partner and try to score under 32 for your first dance.

Easy eh?

Up soon the general stats for the first two dances...the waltz and the tango.

Yep...I missed out that Denise Lewis also danced the waltz as her first dance.

My bad

All celebs are obliged by the Beeb to debut with either cha cha or waltz. Those who danced the waltz first up have immediately used up their doomsday weapon. It appears every contender scores higher with the waltz than with the paso for example, or with the jive.

Gethin I believed scored 39(?) on his waltz but it was empty glory in a round where he did not need 39. In the semi-final against tough competition Gethin deprived of the waltz did the paso but Matt di A whipped out his 4-tens waltz, and Gethin became toast. Had Gethin reserved his 39 waltz for that night he would have stood a good chance, as in the dance-off Matt di A lost the intensity of his first effort.

This year with both latin and ballroom required in the first round, if both cha cha and waltz remain obligatory then maybe we would miss the waltz altogether as a spectacle in the later stages, which would be a pity.

Oh I am loving it already!!!

Loving the stats thanks Quizmike.


Interesting will be looking out for all these things. Erin and Ian are doomed then .

As for the new pros I do think it doesn't help if they get a partner not well known or who doesn't make an instant impact on the auidence. A lot of the old pros have their own followings now which wouldn't make it easier on them. Will be keeping an eye on this thread with interest .

On the next page are the overall stats for tomorrows dances - the Waltz and the Tango.

As it's not been released who is dancing what, the pro stats are for each pro for both dances.