Penny got 33. Lasting longer in the competition doesn't mean that you're a better dancer; Gethin received a 37 for his jive, even though it was very stiff and a bit crap overall.

This thread is saying that a certain named few (who all got high scores for their first dance) are the only ones in with a chance I was pointing out that getting high scores or not being good right off the bat doesnt mean you dont stand a chance......because it comes down to how popular you are with the public as well as the judges. So it really doesnt matter if you didnt happen to like a particular dance of Gethin's my point was that he was still in the competition to dance it and Penny wasnt even if at the end of the first week (due to scores) Penny looked like a more likely candidate to go far in the competition.

I would agree with that.
Aside from Chris none of the contenders have big personalities, all too intense which plays a part in how far you go in the competition. So the no hopers could upset the balance in the early stage of the contest.

I think that's what I was trying to say.

Yep.... that sounds about spot on I would say !! Amazing how predictable it all is even at this stage.

Ok we are in agreement then



Personally I wouldnt want to be the judges fav it doesnt always go your way. Zoe and Ian, Emma and Darren Colin and Erin, Austin and Erin......all ended in tears and no glitter ball.

Looks pretty accurate to me.
I'm still hoping that Ricky & Erin win it though...
They are certainly entertaining in the latin dances, he has a great attitude and I reckon he could potentially be a great dancer (he has a great teacher after all ). I really want him to win it for Erin, she really deserves it.

claire's divisions are spot on for me too, so far.

That said, how often do you get a series where there are FIVE potential contenders identified in the first weeks?! Last year we had four by halfway through, and I thought we were spoiled then...

I think Jade and Ian will creep up on the contenders' shoulders fairly quickly as well, which means we'll have a main group of six.

Far from being predictable, I think the mix this year is actually going to make things brilliantly exciting

Also, I think 2 of the 5 celebs listed as the real contenders - Zoe and Allie - will struggle with votes further on in the competition....I don't know why I can just see it happening that way...

Once again in total agreement with you.
However the only contestant to buck this trend is Alesha.

And Jill and Natasha

Haven't you people watched enough reality TV to know that the favourite at this early stage never wins ?

Ricky is peaking too early, I thought that when he (along with Rav) played the pec card so early.

The winner will be one who will be seen to improve throughout the series.

Jade will win, her vastly superior fitness will pay dividends as it did with Denise Lewis and Colin Jackson. And indeed her fellow long jumper Fiona May who won the Italian version in 2006.

You maybe right, I wasn't an avid watcher of SCD til Season four.

Jade WILL win??? And we all know what happened with Denise and Colin. They DIDN'T win the glitter ball. In fact, I may even venture to say Colin was an early favourite, in line with your theory.

I can't see thus far if Jade would be popular with the public. From the backstage clip in week 2, she either looked bored or 'couldn't be bovered'.

The problem is its the same journey as we have seen twice before - starts at the same crease, hits the same balls and ends in the same score. Surely people won't buy a third mystery trip to the same place again?

And rather cleverly it avoids the talk of favourites because with all those 29-33 marks no one can claim to know who that might be. Ricky might lose out for being ahead and it is easy to see a journey story for Ali or Phil or Chris making it a tighter race at the end.

That's a good point actually. The other thing that occurs to me is that when Goughie won, there was no dance off. Who thinks he'd have been saved by the judges over Colin or Zoe? In fact was there when Ramps won? Can't remember, but think not. Although he still could have won that series on ability alone, assuming he'd stayed in till the latter stages.

She's actually quite fun and sassy and a bit zany, so I hope she gets the chance to show that. She's been given some negative posts, particularly on the Beeb boards, but I find her quite modest and self effacing. I only hope that she gets the same ITT coverage as the rest, as they tend to show more of the people who are perceived to be more famous, particularly at first.

Completely agree with claire2281's groups. I wouldn't write off any of the journeys yet, or Rav. People are feeling stroppy with Strictly this year and if that carries on they might be in the mood to have a 'people's choice' winner over a judges' favourite.

She might be saved by the judges all the way through but I'd be surprised if Ali has the personality to win - if Rachel couldn't I doubt Ali can - unless she and Brian start a relationship and people like that. I doubt 2 Hollyoaks people can get to the final. I also really doubt James Jordan can win with anyone - I think he'll say the wrong thing and alienate the audience at the key moment. (I'm happy to be wrong on those, I have no favourite at the moment.) Also find it interesting that Jade is coming across to us all as a journey and Laila as a contender when they've both had one good and one weak dance, presumably just because Laila had her good dance first and Jade second.

I think it's a good mix this year and it'll be interesting to see what happens - certainly more interested than I was last year.

Don't underestimate the Tufnell. Just like when Darren Gough won, it's an Ashes victory year. Get Andrew Flintoff in the audience supporting him, and he's home and dry!

i dont get the ali praise - she has serious rythm problems - off beat

This, particularly re: Jade and Ian.

Darren Gough and Tom did not win by being the best dancer technically. They won because they were fan favourites with a sense of style when they danced.

I do think Ricky will win (hes a male Rachel Stevens with more bizazz!)

I also think we will have a late comer ala Gethin, and I think it will be Rav.

My final tip:
Ricky
Rav
Zoe

Well personally I am not writing off Ricky Groves. I think there is the glimmer of a reasonable dancer in there and he doenst have any 'performance' issues either. Add to that a fun personality and being a gentleman and he could be a winning combination for me.

I also agree with the earlier poster about the dance off.......that squews everything....It only came in series 5 and could have had a serious impact on the previous series winners. The dance off also gives the judges an idea of who or who isnt popular. An early entry into the dance off can show a lack of public support where as never being in the dance off can show huge public support. Very early entries (more than once) into the dance off for Lisa and Rachel last year showed the judges that they were not popular and therefore after the exit of Austin the result was never in doubt in my view.

I hope the title of this thread is correct, really. I'll be gutted if Chris & Ola don't make the top five because there are bigger fanbases for clowns like Tufnell.

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