Really isn't Louis' year, is it...

1) He gets lumbered with the groups, thus, once again, he has zero stake in who wins

2) The producers' script dictates that he undermines his credit with viewers by picking the twins - another example of his own personality becoming gradually cartoonised over each series

3) More than any other year, this year's judges comments are about toeing the line and going according to the script. Unlike Cheryl and Dannii, he can remember a time when he was at least allowed to express a small part of his opinion

4) Loses an act first week, followed by tragedy of losing a close friend

5) while he's grieving, he also misses out on the early rounds, in which he can still talk to acts who are genuinely awful

6) While he knows he's not allowed to win, the one act of his whom he might be able to launch for a serious career is eliminated far too early, meaning they don't go on the X Factor Tour, and become significantly less likely to do well

7) on the night that they're eliminated, he has to toe the Cowell line, and every comment about his own act has to be prefaced with 'I can't believe Danyl was in the bottom 2 - and Miss Frank, of course', rather than being allowed to sympathise/plug his own act

8) he has to go 2 months in the series without a credible act

9) the continued presence of John and Edward means that he has to play the part of 'silly prankster, taking the piss out of Mr Cowell', instead of being a serious judge of musical talent

I mean, my considered opinion of Mr. Walsh is generally pretty low, but this is a man who has managed his acts to 30 UK number ones, and been a judge on these shows longer than any of them, including Simon. He's not just (or at least originally wasn't) some mug on the side to get up Simon's nose.

And now he has to play the 'cartoon Irish idiot', watch Brian Friedman essentially manage his act for him, as a joke, while the only act he had any real stake in goes home.

Poor bloke.

(Oh and if any of that seems like Danyl-bashing, sorry - he is my favourite, and very talented, but the manipulation around him is still relevant)

Why do you think Louis puts up with it then? He has his own successful career separate from Simon and he must make a boatload of money.

If J&E win XF, you'll be able to stop feeling sorry for Louis!

If J&E get through OK this week, I fully expect to start seeing them in the top 5 or 6 in the betting odds.

I'd imagine:
a) he enjoys being in the spotlight/being well-known
b) X Factor pays stupidly well
c) he's on a long-term contract
d) it keeps him occupied with the current generation of acts

If you look at his acts at the moment, Westlife are basically done, Boyzone, especially given the last month, aren't going to have the most serious comeback ever, and JLS come directly from X Factor. Can't think of anyone else of any note, other than Shayne Ward - another X Factorite

Louis loves the fame and he loves the 6 or 7 figure paycheck.

I struggle to feel sorry for any of them, Louis personal tragedy aside. It's a TV show in which they are all well rewarded for playing their parts.

Also, as we saw with JLS last year, Louis is not in a position to launch careers for the acts due to certain contracts.

Louis is a multi-millionaire. He could easily retire and never work another day in his life.

He does XF - and indeed everything else he does - because he loves it.

Probably cos he loves the attention and his 15/30 minutes of fame. Nothing wrong in that cos as OP said he's been remarkably successful as a manager and was a very credible judge at one time.

I'm pretty sure though that John and Edward were/are his favourite group this year and the one he had most hopes for.He did say before the live finals that the public wont vote for girl groups.

Louis' finest X Factor moment:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2-tWgzaGMus

Simon: "You can't throw water over the singers, Louis!"

this is the guy responsible for getting rid of class acts in previous series, notable mariah lawson in series 2,unforgivable.
and i think laura white last year.

he gets what he deserves

He does have my sympathy for the loss of a dear friend but, when it comes to everything-else I think the guy knows exactly what he's doing! He's marketed J&E as the "anti-Simon" vote from the very start. Furthermore, they've gone from being loathed in the auditions to building up a band of supporters who are happy to pick up the phone to keep them in the competition.

On paper Simon has the strongest group but, he doesn't appear to be managing them very well at all. I fear complacency has crept in and has left him reeling! A manager who is on the ball would never have let the stories come out about Danyl's alleged bullying or having a screaming match Jamie over changing his song at the last minute. Louis (on the otherhand) knows that J&E can't sing but, has decided to market them as fun young lads who are having a great time in the competition. So far, the choreography, the girls the colours they wear and the song choices have all been top notch and love them or hate them they are probably the biggest talking point of the show.

As Eurostar posted Louis admitted that girl-bands aren't popular on these shows yet he picked two of them (of which one had been thrown together at the last minute) to take to the finals. I don't buy the he picked J&E "because they're Irish nonsense", I really believe Louis saw something in J&E which he could build on and so far it seems to be working.

ah, but he's still got his limericks

I always get the feeling that no one has that much respect for Louis, tbh.
And in the X Factor, it shows - it's almost embarrasing sometimes to see how Simon belittles him and Cheryl Cole is inclined to put him down whenever she gets the chance too.
Plus, for a man who is supposed to be such a successful manager, he doesn't actually have many acts, does he?

Whilst I must commend the OP on a well-reasoned theory, I feel that (with the exception naturally of SG's death) LW really doesn't give a toss about any of it and he plays his part in the Pantomime usually (although not always) rather well.

He is a true pro and is really close to SC. Enough said methinks.

YES!! I think he's the best judge on Xtra Factor, he really takes the piss out of himself and gets involved in the little skits etc.