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the maths won't add up so John and Edward won't win! |
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#1 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 87
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the maths won't add up so John and Edward won't win!
I am no mathematician but I can clearly see why they won’t win and I will try and explain it to you.
Let’s say J and E are currently getting 20% of the public vote (which I happen to think is way over estimate as that is 1 in 5 voting for them) that leaves 80% divided between the rest of the contestants. Therefore when there are 8 other contestants, on average they will get 10% of the votes. As each contestant gets voted out, that 80% is spread amongst fewer contestants. See the table below: 7 contestants besides J and E will get 11.4% of the votes on average each 6 contestants besides J and E will get 13.33% of the votes on average each 5 contestants besides J and E will get 16% of the votes on average each 4 contestants besides J and E will get 20% of the votes on average each 3 contestants besides J and E will get 26.66% of the votes on average each 2 contestants besides J and E will get 40% of the votes on average each 1 contestant contestants besides J and E will get 80% of the votes on average each I give J and E at most another 3 weeks and probably less!
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#2 |
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Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Lancashire
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The acts which get to the final 3 will be those who are best at picking up votes from eliminated acts -ie who's going to now get the votes of the Rachel supporters.
More than likely J and E will not pick up too many of these "transferred" votes but they may well have enough support anyway to get to the final. |
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#3 |
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Join Date: Dec 2007
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Ah but that is under the assumption that the evitees votes won't head to the J&E camp. It's possible that having had their favourite put out some votes may go J&E's way, partcularly voters of Joe and Llyod.
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#4 |
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Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: London E17
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Quote:
I am no mathematician but I can clearly see why they won’t win and I will try and explain it to you.
Let’s say J and E are currently getting 20% of the public vote (which I happen to think is way over estimate as that is 1 in 5 voting for them) that leaves 80% divided between the rest of the contestants. Therefore when there are 8 other contestants, on average they will get 10% of the votes. As each contestant gets voted out, that 80% is spread amongst fewer contestants. See the table below: 7 contestants besides J and E will get 11.4% of the votes on average each 6 contestants besides J and E will get 13.33% of the votes on average each 5 contestants besides J and E will get 16% of the votes on average each 4 contestants besides J and E will get 20% of the votes on average each 3 contestants besides J and E will get 26.66% of the votes on average each 2 contestants besides J and E will get 40% of the votes on average each 1 contestant contestants besides J and E will get 80% of the votes on average each I give J and E at most another 3 weeks and probably less! ![]() |
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#5 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 87
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Quote:
The acts which get to the final 3 will be those who are best at picking up votes from eliminated acts -ie who's going to now get the votes of the Rachel supporters.
More than likely J and E will not pick up too many of these "transferred" votes but they may well have enough support anyway to get to the final. Exactly my point about the transfered votes because the serious voters will not move on to J and E when their fave act is voted off they will move to one of the others. Each time this happens J and E's percentage gettings closer and closer to the next acts and eventually will be overtaken. Unless J and E have 51% of the votes already (that is half of all votes which I just do not beleive)they have no chance of winning. The same could have been said for the John Sargent scenario in "Strictly". They shoudl have just let it run it's course. |
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#6 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 87
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Quote:
Correct. You are no mathematician!!!!
If you think my maths are utter tripe please enlighten me! I love to live and learn from a more learned person such as yourself. |
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#7 |
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Join Date: Mar 2003
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You also need to take into account that people's votes do change for whatever reason - obviously the order isn't always the same otherwise this week for instance Danyl would have been bottom in the voting.
No doubt there are a fair few people who don't have any particular allegiance to one act in particular but vote according to the performance on the night. Certainly J and E will get some people's "transferred" votes but my point is that they are perhaps less likely to get these than others. As people's opinions about them seem to be polarized one way or the other. You either love or hate them - few people would be indifferent I would imagine. And I'm not saying this because I hate them - I dont!!
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#8 |
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Join Date: Jun 2005
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the JE vote is obviously not people who vote for singers, thus the % vote for AN Other is comprised of more voice-oriented voters. as singers like Rachel go, it is more likely that their votes would go to Lucie or Stacey than JE or Lloyd.
that assumes that votes transfer at all - it would be interesting to know. |
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#9 |
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Join Date: Sep 2007
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[quote=MarcPaulB;36414613]You also need to take into account that people's votes do change for whatever reason - obviously the order isn't always the same otherwise this week for instance Danyl would have been bottom in the voting.
No doubt there are a fair few people who don't have any particular allegiance to one act in particular but vote according to the performance on the night. Certainly J and E will get some people's "transferred" votes but my point is that they are perhaps less likely to get these than others. As people's opinions about them seem to be polarized one way or the other. You either love or hate them - few people would be indifferent I would imagine. And I'm not saying this because I hate them - I dont!! [/QUOteMarc I have done just what you say, as that is why I am talking in averages. It is also a possiblity that some of the J and E fans may just stop voting for them and start voting for one of the others! |
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#10 |
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Join Date: Jun 2007
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Quote:
the JE vote is obviously not people who vote for singers, thus the % vote for AN Other is comprised of more voice-oriented voters. as singers like Rachel go, it is more likely that their votes would go to Lucie or Stacey than JE or Lloyd.
that assumes that votes transfer at all - it would be interesting to know. I think Rachel voters will now vote for Lucie and Stacey as they are of a similar age to her. |
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#11 |
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Join Date: Sep 2008
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People whose favourites are knocked out may vote for someone else they like (which could actually include J&E, or they may not bother voting at all, and some people may then vote for them just out of spite.
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#12 |
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Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Dublin
Posts: 51,664
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One thing that strikes me is that the twins will be seriously disadvantaged by not having a 'home' vote.Every one of the acts are benefitting by having a hometown vote of some description,which means J & E are totally relying on neutral votes.
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#13 |
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 314
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Here's all the maths you need:
J&E = (£20m advertising revenue) + (xmillion tabloids = £xmillion) + (x Broadsheet articles) + (xhrs TV coverage +News at Ten) x (x million teen votes x 10 weeks) x (Max Clifford) = ITV/Syco x multiple orgasms as they laugh all the way to the bank. |
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#14 |
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Join Date: Jun 2004
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Quote:
Dazer
If you think my maths are utter tripe please enlighten me! I love to live and learn from a more learned person such as yourself. 1) Some people vote for more than contestant. 2) Some people vote more than once for a contestant 3) That once a voters favourite has been eliminated their vote will go to a non J&E contestant. |
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#15 |
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Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 21,517
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Quote:
People whose favourites are knocked out may vote for someone else they like (which could actually include J&E, or they may not bother voting at all, and some people may then vote for them just out of spite.
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#16 |
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Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 894
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A lot of wishful thinking in this thread!
Doesn't seem to take account of the fact that some J&E fans are so enthusiastic, they are prepared to vote 30-40 or more times for the twins. I wonder if any other contestants attract that level of support? (Rhetorical question by the way! )
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#17 |
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: London
Posts: 24,469
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They won't win but they will get to go on the tour, which is probably the aim.
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#18 |
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Join Date: Jun 2002
Posts: 65,806
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But I can imagine that when people's favourite acts get voted out they may think "Sod it, if my act gets voted out then I'm going to vote for J&E and try to put a spanner in the works. Let's see what happens".
Which I might add, I find an admirable attitude to have. ![]() If Simon allows all 12 acts to go through then he's got to accept that they are all worthy enough to win. If he doesn't like it, then tough sh*t. He gave us the options that are available. He can't complain if J&E are there and other acts get voted out. Simon dealt the cards for us to play with. His fault if it doesn't go his way. If J&E somehow win then Simon shouldn't have allowed them into the competition in the first place. |
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#19 |
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Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: London
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Quote:
But I can imagine that when people's favourite acts get voted out they may think "Sod it, if my act gets voted out then I'm going to vote for J&E and try to put a spanner in the works. Let's see what happens".
Which I might add, I find an admirable attitude to have. ![]() If Simon allows all 12 acts to go through then he's got to accept that they are all worthy enough to win. If he doesn't like it, then tough sh*t. He gave us the options that are available. He can't complain if J&E are there and other acts get voted out. Simon dealt the cards for us to play with. His fault if it doesn't go his way. If J&E somehow win then Simon shouldn't have allowed them into the competition in the first place. He likes it because as long as people are talking about the show and telling their friends to tune in to see what Jedward do next and as long as people are voting to 'put a spanner in the works', he is a very happy man. |
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#20 |
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Forum Member
Join Date: May 2005
Posts: 7,000
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Quote:
I am no mathematician but I can clearly see why they won’t win and I will try and explain it to you.
Let’s say J and E are currently getting 20% of the public vote (which I happen to think is way over estimate as that is 1 in 5 voting for them) that leaves 80% divided between the rest of the contestants. Therefore when there are 8 other contestants, on average they will get 10% of the votes. As each contestant gets voted out, that 80% is spread amongst fewer contestants. See the table below: 7 contestants besides J and E will get 11.4% of the votes on average each 6 contestants besides J and E will get 13.33% of the votes on average each 5 contestants besides J and E will get 16% of the votes on average each 4 contestants besides J and E will get 20% of the votes on average each 3 contestants besides J and E will get 26.66% of the votes on average each 2 contestants besides J and E will get 40% of the votes on average each 1 contestant contestants besides J and E will get 80% of the votes on average each I give J and E at most another 3 weeks and probably less! ![]() You should really should have ended your post with the words I have highlighted in bold. If you are just going to make up voting percentages at random surely you could use the same logic to prove that no contestant left in the competition could possibly win? |
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#21 |
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Join Date: Jul 2006
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Quote:
Ah but that is under the assumption that the evitees votes won't head to the J&E camp. It's possible that having had their favourite put out some votes may go J&E's way, partcularly voters of Joe and Llyod.
People voting for the likes of Joe and Lloyd will blame the Twims if they go out first so not likely switch there. |
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#22 |
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Join Date: Jan 2008
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Quote:
they are prepared to vote 30-40 or more times for the twins.
But I bet not prepared to buy even one single or album. Look what happened to Eoghan and Leon.
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#23 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 40,364
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So where will Rachel's voters go next Saturday - both of them.
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#24 |
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Join Date: May 2005
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I think I understand now what the OP is trying to say - in a rather over-complicated fashion is that J&E's percentage of the votes will remain fixed and as the number of people left falls their percentage will thus fall far enough to put them in the bottom two. I think a simpler way to put it would be to assume that there are more people who dislike J&E than who like them, and that in the final analysis they can't win, for it they get to the final two, a vote for their opponent becomes a vote to evict them - a point I actually made a while ago on a different thread. I think this may be why Simon feels he can safely keep them in the competition as long as possible without winning ...
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#25 |
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Join Date: Jun 2006
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Who knows what will happen in the final. Leona almost got beaten by Ray Quinn.
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