I think its a toss up between Groves, Rouass and Natalie cassidy. I've never rated Groves and think he has survived by mearly being slightly better than some truely awful dancers. Laila is very hit and miss, I even thought her paso wasn't all that much tonight and as for Natalie. I think she has been consistently overmarked for her enthusiam and energy. Her dancing is nothing special and for some reason she seems to have winged it so far...
Ricky and Ali are way ahead of the pack technically and Chris (especially) and Tuffers are getting through on personality.
I havent warmed to Jade, and dont think she is that amazing but think she might well cause an upset - Ian's popularity will be helping their partnership.
Just my humble views...dont kill me for them!