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  • Strictly Come Dancing
Does Natalie have a chance to win?
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fredster
15-11-2009
Originally Posted by Robert Romarin:
“Of course she has a chance of winning.

However I had Tufnell down as the likeliest winner...which shows how little insight I have...so I hesitate to go beyond that.”

me too, funnily enough last week was the first time he was committed to SCD. Now he has gone. Laila should really have gone or like Jade dropped out of dancing last night.
drbolognaise
15-11-2009
No way. She is a underwhelming dancer with poor technique and a limited scope for improvement (I dont care what the judges say). I couldnt give a stuff if she was funnier than Claudia Winkleman, she does not dance well enough to win Strictly Come Dancing. If she wants to win a programme on the basis of her personality, she needs to visit the jungle or the celeb BB house.
sequinned thong
15-11-2009
she has deffo got a chance of winning. Neither of the "best" dancers are all rounders and this series is ripe for a personality vote.
Kez100
15-11-2009
I don't think so. I think the leavers will go like this.... (assuming Jade is out)

Ricky G
Laila
Natalie

Final Chris, Ali and Ricky. One of Ali and Ricky out third place. Chris to win over Ricky or Ali to win over Ricky.
Lurksalot
15-11-2009
Originally Posted by Kez100:
“I don't think so. I think the leavers will go like this.... (assuming Jade is out)

Ricky G
Laila
Natalie

Final Chris, Ali and Ricky. One of Ali and Ricky out third place. Chris to win over Ricky or Ali to win over Ricky.”

This is spot on for me. I doubt she'll get to the final, she would only survive a DO if against Ricky G. The others are all better than her.
gig-ge-dy
15-11-2009
Originally Posted by Lurksalot:
“This is spot on for me. I doubt she'll get to the final, she would only survive a DO if against Ricky G. The others are all better than her.”

Actually, looking at the way they score the two, I reckon the judges would also take the opportunity to ditch Chris against Natalie too ... but I strongly doubt the public will ever give them the chance.
Spinaker5
15-11-2009
Originally Posted by Cult of Z-List:
“I think Natalie fits the profile perfectly

- came form a succesful soap opera so already has a large fan base (be honest, how many of you still, on occassion, call her Sonia!)
- not too pretty, so not threatening for the female population, after all "if a plain hefty girl can get success then I can too"
- in contrast her partner is "Phwoar"
- the judges go out of their way to praise her "effort", nice and uncontroversial
- her personality is well edited
- who cares about the dancing anyway !”

The judges' treatment of Natalie is not uncontroversial. They never say anything negative about her and have been unfairly inflating her marks more each week.

Last night Len awarded two '9's, one to Ricky W and one to Natalie. All the other dancers got '8's apart from Laila who got '7'. She is not as good as Ricky W or better than Ali.

Her personality is not well edited. Several of us are not liking the way she expects to get high marks or some of her comments about other dancers.

Sadly, she could win but I hope not.
And I do care about the dancing,
Spinaker5
15-11-2009
Originally Posted by drbolognaise:
“No way. She is a underwhelming dancer with poor technique and a limited scope for improvement (I dont care what the judges say). I couldnt give a stuff if she was funnier than Claudia Winkleman, she does not dance well enough to win Strictly Come Dancing. If she wants to win a programme on the basis of her personality, she needs to visit the jungle or the celeb BB house.”

Making SCD more like the X-Factor by bringing in Alesha, has moved the show even further away from being a dance competition.
Daisy_M
15-11-2009
Originally Posted by drbolognaise:
“No way. She is a underwhelming dancer with poor technique and a limited scope for improvement (I dont care what the judges say). I couldnt give a stuff if she was funnier than Claudia Winkleman, she does not dance well enough to win Strictly Come Dancing. If she wants to win a programme on the basis of her personality, she needs to visit the jungle or the celeb BB house.”

She's definitely not funnier than our Claud!

To be fair to her though, I think she is just being herself. The public obviously like it because she hasn't been in the DO yet.
Mr Giggles
15-11-2009
I think she doesn't have a chance of winning but I do predict she will be in the final, I would put money on that.
drbolognaise
15-11-2009
Originally Posted by Spinaker5:
“Making SCD more like the X-Factor by bringing in Alesha, has moved the show even further away from being a dance competition.”

Absolutely. Bring Back Arlene or Bring In Karen Hardy. I cant believe I used to be such a big Alesha fan before she ruined my fave saturday night show!

[quote=Daisy_M;36695861]She's definitely not funnier than our Claud!
QUOTE]

No way is she funnier than Our Claud! Im so happy Claudia is doing the SCD tour, I imagine I wont be able to concentrate on the dancing because I'll be laughing so much at her *serious face*
bobbla
15-11-2009
Originally Posted by drbolognaise:
“
No way is she funnier than Our Claud! Im so happy Claudia is doing the SCD tour, I imagine I wont be able to concentrate on the dancing because I'll be laughing so much at her *serious face* ”

Claudia is doing the tour? Seriously?

How did i possible miss this stupendous news
drbolognaise
15-11-2009
Originally Posted by bobbla:
“Claudia is doing the tour? Seriously?
How did i possible miss this stupendous news ”

That's what Ive heard, I will double check it out again tomorrow and let you know!
tabithakitten
16-11-2009
At the moment we know little about the popularity of any of the remaining celebs except we know that for the past two weeks, Ricky G's vote has not been high enough to counteract his judges' scores. We also know that Ali and Jade have been in a dance off but that this hasn't happened for two or three weeks. In Ali's case, her position on the leaderboard may have helped preserve her from the dance off. Jade, however, I think has done a Jodie from last year and won over the public. I think her popularity was riding pretty high before the injury (although that may be academic now).

As to the others, who knows where they rank. There's been an unconfirmed report that Chris is well ahead and this seems quite feasilible but we don't actually know. We have even less on the likes of Natalie and Laila except that in reverse to Ricky G, their vote has been high enough to counteract mediocre/low judges' scores (same with Chris).

Of Ricky W we know absolutely nothing except that he's popular enough to, thus far, have avoided a "fall from grace".

There has been speculation that Ali and Ricky W aren't popular. All we have in support of this is Ali's place in the dance off three weeks ago and comments on message boards. Hardly conclusive. They will almost certainly take the top two positions on the leaderboard for as long as they both remain in from now on (assuming Jade doesn't return). If so, it's quite possible that they will avoid a dance off against each other before the final and thus, will both make it through.

If this happens (and I think it's very possible), I don't see Natalie making it to the final. I think Chris's vote is stronger. In any case, I think Chris is Natalie's main competition for a final place.
bobbla
16-11-2009
Originally Posted by drbolognaise:
“That's what Ive heard, I will double check it out again tomorrow and let you know!”

Thank you
Apricot
16-11-2009
Originally Posted by tabithakitten:
“At the moment we know little about the popularity of any of the remaining celebs except we know that for the past two weeks, Ricky G's vote has not been high enough to counteract his judges' scores. We also know that Ali and Jade have been in a dance off but that this hasn't happened for two or three weeks. In Ali's case, her position on the leaderboard may have helped preserve her from the dance off. Jade, however, I think has done a Jodie from last year and won over the public. I think her popularity was riding pretty high before the injury (although that may be academic now).

As to the others, who knows where they rank. There's been an unconfirmed report that Chris is well ahead and this seems quite feasilible but we don't actually know. We have even less on the likes of Natalie and Laila except that in reverse to Ricky G, their vote has been high enough to counteract mediocre/low judges' scores (same with Chris).

Of Ricky W we know absolutely nothing except that he's popular enough to, thus far, have avoided a "fall from grace".

There has been speculation that Ali and Ricky W aren't popular. All we have in support of this is Ali's place in the dance off three weeks ago and comments on message boards. Hardly conclusive. They will almost certainly take the top two positions on the leaderboard for as long as they both remain in from now on (assuming Jade doesn't return). If so, it's quite possible that they will avoid a dance off against each other before the final and thus, will both make it through.

If this happens (and I think it's very possible), I don't see Natalie making it to the final. I think Chris's vote is stronger. In any case, I think Chris is Natalie's main competition for a final place.”


Great analyis
katmobile
16-11-2009
God I hope not! I like Nat Cass but between the inflated opinion of both the judges and herself about her dancing I really hope she goes soon. It annoyed me that she didn't go last Saturday. I suppose you can never rule out Vinnie's tongue being in his cheek and you've got to believe you can win to progress but I find their we're going to win stick annoying and want someone to come along with a pin to burst their bubbles. I also think that she isn't the most graceful at the ballroom - they've got a rhumba to do at some point soon and it ain't gonna be pretty. No one apart from Jade is inspiring me this year but frankly I'd rather see anyone win than Nat out of those left.
samiskim
16-11-2009
Originally Posted by tabithakitten:
“I think Natalie couldn't have chosen her series better with regard to a chance at winning. The best dancers left in the show (Ali and Ricky W) don't come across well personality wise. Jade looks as though she could be out and Laila's Latin is weak. Ricky G has been in the bottom two twice; his days are surely numbered.

Her main competition for a final place is Chris. I have serious doubts as to whether he would ever end up in the bottom two ahead of her but stranger things have happened as we get closer to the final. Also, if Jade is out, it would look like a two couple final in which case anything might happen as we'd get that dreaded situation where the judges have final say even when there are only three couples left (I hate that!)

I do have to say though that the thought of Vincent winning the show with Natalie when he didn't manage it with either Louisa or Rachel doesn't sit right with me.”

Or me!!!!
Passoa
16-11-2009
I really hope not. She's unbearable in her sheer arrogance, I find.
nightstar
16-11-2009
I sincerely hope that Natalie doesn't win. I don't like her dancing and I find her desperation and neediness quite cringeworthy.
EmilyIRE
16-11-2009
I really hope not. It's debatable whether her or Ricky G are the worst dancer left. However, the judges seem to be inexplicably turning a blind eye to her faults and overmarking her, so it's quite probable that she would win in a dance-off against anyone other than the chosen two.

It's interesting that this week, when the overmarking was at it's most blatant, that she seems to have had a big jump on the "least favourite" poll.
reginald1981
16-11-2009
I hope not too.
water_carrier
16-11-2009
When the show ended on Saturday night I thought that she may well win it. Not that I am a fan but she is obviously popular. I agree that for some of her dances she has been overmarked and it wouldn't surprise me if she got to the final. If Jedward can still be in X factor nothing surprises me now...
Dollystanford
16-11-2009
if it's going to be a 'personality' win this year it's going to be Chris

if it's going to be a 'dancer' it will be Ali or Ricky W
Cassie
16-11-2009
I really hope not. She's overmarked by the judges and overhyped by the Beeb with no justifcation whatsoever.
I will re-mortgage my house to prevent her winning (well in theory).
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