Been doing a bit of Maths concerning this weekends possible public vote, taking into account Ricky G and Phil were in the dance-off.

This was the judges leaderboard at the end of the night:

Ali & Brian - 7pts
Ricky W & Natalie - 7pts
Natalie & Vincent - 6pts
Phil & Katya - 5pts
Chris & Ola - 4pts
Ricky G & Erin - 3pts
Laila & Anton - 2pts

So from this we can see Laila had to make up at least 3 points on Phil, to be above him in the overall combined leaderboard.

If we are to presume Laila won the public vote, she would have had 9pts (2+7), that would mean Phil could have no more than 4pts from the public which would have been 4th on the public vote.

If we are to stick Ricky G at the bottom of the public vote thus putting him in the dance-off. We know Chris would have to come at least one place above Phil. So therefore, if Phil was 4th, and with Laila and Chris above him, it leaves just one place above him in the public vote, and two below him for the top 3 on the night Ali, Ricky W and Natalie.

Now Natalie got one more point then Phil with the judges so she would have to be above him in the public vote, to finish above him on the combined leaderboard. That leaves two places below Phil for Ali and Ricky W, but that would not work, because whichever one of them finished two places below Phil, would finish below him on the combined leaderboard, due to public vote.

Here is just an example of what I mean:

Public vote:

1. Laila & Anton - 7pts
2. Chris & Ola - 6pts
3. Natalie & Vincent - 5pts
4. Phil & Katya - 4pts
5. Ali & Brian - 3pts
6. Ricky W & Natalie - 2pts
7. Ricky G & Erin - 1pt

That would leave combined total of:

Natalie & Vincnet - 11pts (6+5)
Chris & Ola - 10pts (4+6)
Ali & Brian - 10pts (7+3)
Laila & Anton - 9pts (2+7)
Phil & Katya - 9pts (5+4)
Ricky W & Natalie - 9pts (7+2)
Ricky G & Erin - 4pts (3+1)

This would see the two Ricky's in the dance-off, Ricky W dropping in due to public vote. So therefore, from what I can work out, Phil could not have came any higher than 5th in the public vote.

If he did come 5th, that would still allow Ricky G to be last, Laila could come either 1st or 2nd. And leave space for Chris, Natalie and one of Ali and Ricky W to come above him, with the other couple coming 6th.

Of course this all rely's on Ricky G coming last in the public vote and Phil coming in 5th. If Phil was 6th or even last it doesn't tell us all that much about public vote.

It was just something I found a bit intresting, as a lot of people were shocked with Phil being in the bottom two.

OMG you have far too much time on your hands!!

Your guess at the public vote tallies with my theory to - though I'm way too lazy to go to the trouble of trying to work it all out. Well done you.

Ricky W & Natalie would need to be at least 1 more place up in the public vote or they would have been in the dance off as if the scores are tied then the public vote takes precedence

Chris could still have topped the public vote - second place on the public vote would have been sufficient for Laila to get through

I'm also guessing Laila came top or 2nd with the public this week.
I would also guess at Ali and Ricky W being towards the bottom of the public vote last week and possibly most weeks .hence the need to keep them up there at the top of the judge's leaderboard.

A good sob story always attracts the sympathy vote and no doubt many of Phil's fans will have judged him safe .

I think you have called most of these correctly , But I think if the total is drawn , all those 9s , then the public vote carries most weight . so this would put Ricky W in the dance off as he had 9 but a lower public vote than Phil .

Ricky W & Natalie got 2 more points than Phil with the judges, so even if they finished one place behind Phil, combined they would have still have scored one more point than him.

Thats what I indicated if Phil finished 5th. Second place would have been good enough for Laila. It is my personal opinion that the top 2 were probably Chris and Laila. Personally I think Laila is popular anyway, otherwise she wouldn't have survived when she had the 2 dodgy latin dances a couple of weeks ago (Jive and Salsa/Samba, cant remember which one it was).

[quote=arddunol;36727050]I'm also guessing Laila came top or 2nd with the public this week.
I would also guess at Ali and Ricky W being towards the bottom of the public vote last week and possibly most weeks .hence the need to keep them up there at the top of the judge's leaderboard.

A good sob story always attracts the sympathy vote and no doubt many of Phil's fans will have judged him safe .

I think you have called most of these correctly , But I think if the total is drawn , all those 9s , then the public vote carries most weight . so this would put Ricky W in the dance off as he had 9 but a lower public vote than Phil .[/QUOTE]

The total with all the 9's, was if Phil came 4th. Which would have been the highest he could have possibly came, if Laila topped the vote. However, due to that being mathermatically impossible, I discounted that possibility. Therefore 5th was the best he could have done. Which is what the small paragraph underneath explains.

I have too much time on my hands and this is how I worked it out

Laila 2 + 7 = 9
Ricky G 3 +1 = 3
Chris 4 + 6 = 10
Phil 5 + 3 = 8
Natalie 6 + 5 = 11
Ricky/Ali 7 + 4 = 11
Ricky/Ali 7 + 2 = 9

I have tried lots of permuations and the only way that works is for Laila to have top vote and Phil to have 3 points from the public with Chris and Natalie both high up too..... Either Ali or Ricky W (cannot tell which obviously) got less votes than Phil and both of them got less votes than Chris Natalie and Laila. In fact I think they get less votes than Chris Natalie and Laila every week or one of them would have appeared in the dance off already as they have never had maximum judges points to help them to keep safe.

You could easily swap Laila and Chris around to this:

Chris 4+7 = 11
Laila 2+6 = 8

Laila would have the same score as Phil, but end up above him due to public vote.

I deffinately agree with your conclusion on Chris, Natalie and Laila scoring more each week then both, or at the least one of Ali and Ricky every week.

unfortunately there's too many combinations that work as all we know is that Laila and Chris and Nat are more popular than Phil.

For example the public vote could be

Ricky W 7 judges +7 public
Ali 7+6
Nat 6+5
Laila 2+4
Chris 4+3
Ricky G 3+2
Phil 5+1

Or it could be

Chris 4+7
Nat 6+6
Laila 2+5
Ricky G 3+4
Ali 7+3
Phil 5+2
Ricky W 7+1

We learn something about Chris, Nat and (this wek anyway) Laila's - but we don't know how they stand regarding Ali and Ricky W

Thats what I meant when I said I was presuming Phil came 5th, of course if he came 6th or 7th in the public vote anything could be possible.

It makes sense..but I still have a problem. Those public voting figures still seem to be very unlikely.
Even giving Laila the "sympathy vote", is it likely she would have received more public votes than Chris ?
In addition, we have to believe that Phil's share of the vote slumped so badly that he finished 5th with the public.
It's not impossible, it just seems unlikely.

Though past evidence might suggest some options are more likely than others given who has been in the bottom two and who has escaped it and your example fits some of that evidence well.

Ali & Brian - 7+7=14
Ricky W & Natalie - 7+6=13
Natalie & Vincent - 6+5=11
Phil & Katya - 5+1=6
Chris & Ola - 4+3=7
Ricky G & Erin - 3+2=5
Laila & Anton - 2+4=6

What about that OP? Ali and Ricky could easily be the top 2 in the vote and Laila as low as 4th.

We don't know enough yet (although i'd guess a Laila and Chris top 2 personally).

Do we know Laila , Chris And Natalie are more popular than phil ?

They may have been this week , but Phil has been saved from much lower positions on the leaderboard than this week.

I would be very surprised if Phil's vote slumped that low , saturn .

From this week on it will start becoming clearer where the public sympathies lie .

I mentioned this elsewhere, but I can understand why the BBC (and ITV for X thingy) don't publish the votes cast. If you recall, after last year's fiasco when Tom should have gone, the BBC did announce the public vote for Rachel, Lisa and Tom. After that, the final result was a foregone conclusion and real let down.

So my suggestion would be that they do publish each week's votes AFTER the series has ended. That would help us to understand the vote shifts, the "Blackpool" or "Injury" factor etc. It would also be interesting to see if there is much difference in the votes given the short voting time.

Ali & Brian - 7+4=11
Ricky W & Natalie - 7+2=9
Natalie & Vincent - 6+5=11
Phil & Katya - 5+3=8
Chris & Ola - 4+6=10
Ricky G & Erin - 3+1=4
Laila & Anton - 2+7=9

That would be my guess anyway. Ultimately I think Phil went because Ali performed last and he was on first. Had they been closer he would have gotten more votes than her and stayed.

So too have those 3 though. It's hard to tell. Oh and I really think Phil could have been forgotten on Saturday.

I don't recall seeing those figures at all .

Not only the difference caused by the short voting time but also by the fact that nothing goes charity now.

The semi results went towards the final results so they did reveal that the semi rankings were 1) Tom 2) Rachel 3) Lisa.

As indeed were the rankings in the final and at the end of the final and probably would have been if the lights had gone off and no one had seen the final.

Yes..it works. The question is, from what little we know, how likely is such a result ? We don't actually know very much at all about the public vote..unless that "leak" a few weeks ago was genuine. But that leak did put Chris way out in front, Phil was his nearest challenger..the "rest" were some distance behind..that's IF it was genuine.
I have a "gut feeling" that Phil was very popular..but that's just asking around people I know, and they may be more sports orientated than the average SCD viewer, and unlikely to vote anyway.

Ali & Brian - 7pts
Ricky W & Natalie - 7pts
Natalie & Vincent - 6pts
Phil & Katya - 5pts
Chris & Ola - 4pts
Ricky G & Erin - 3pts
Laila & Anton - 2pts

Phil can't have been that popular because we know he was below Natalie, Chris and Laila and can't have been above both Ali and Ricky W. So 5th at best which is where I reckon he was.

I just think he was forgotten this week.

This is key! It is popularity with the viewers who vote, rather than popular with viewers. I haven't voted at all this series because the 15 minutes is usually when I put my kids to bed, so by the time that's all done the time is up. My moher always votes for her fave pro (Anton ) and her fave celeb. I'm sure that celebs pick up votes on the back of the popularity of their pros.

I am amazed that so many of you can work this sort of thing out. I am such a maths dunce! Good work people!