Sorry gig-ge-dy - too much wine & too much relief that Ricky W. is through. I need to go back & revise (or ask my mathematical son 'cos I'm rubbish at this!)

No prob. Don't think you have to worry too much about Ricky W. He'll be in the final.

This is not a cast iron rule as such - just one of various options open to the producers inc a non-elimination week.
They reserve the right etc......

New voting system or not, it doesn't matter whether Chris is light years ahead in the public's eye, it's still quite possible for him to go out.

Against Ricky W and Ali in a three couple semi with dance off, it's a sure bet that he'd come third.

Then, as long as the person who came first with the judges came second with the public, Chris would be in the dance off and, almost certainly, out.

Assuming Chris and Natalie C are the most popular with the public (not guaranteed but reasonable), the next couple of weeks will tell us a lot about which one of Ricky or Ali is the more popular. The judges could then take a reasonably confident punt on that celeb in the semi final and mark them more highly, should they so wish.

Their best device is arranging ties on the scoreboard.

True, if they tied Ricky W and Ali for first, they wouldn't even have to know which one of them was doing better with the public. One of the two would get 5 points guarantee. Chris could only get a max of 4 and be out in DO.

Assumes Chris has support and there's no reason yet to think he has more than Ricky and no way of knowing how much Ali now has. Chris's story as run so far is as the mother's boy candidate - with Ola as mother - which is a story that hasn't been run before but there's no reason to see why it would work this time. As journey stories go he's still in his driveway. There's also more people voting towards the end and the differences in ability will be even more obvious.

Chris should go in any dance off against either of those two and is vulnerable to Nat or Laila in a weak week too. In a SF its 50-50 whether the judges get the order right between the top 2 even without knowing which is ahead.

Chris in the final against Ali or Ricky W would be absurd - he hasn't done a great dance either and he hasn't got a journey story so the argument would be that Ola beating him into so so shape is funnier than her doing the same to kenny. Its either as onesidedly pointless as the Dancing On Ice final last year with Donal outclassd by Ray or its ridiculous.

Not with the new rules - the tied pair would get 3 and the last one would get 2 points?

The only way the two most popular dancers don't make the final is if the one who is top of the leaderboard is more popular than the second and the last on the leaderboard is most popular of all.

Nope.

You could also have the 2nd most popular missing out if they are last with the judges and the most popular couple are 2nd with the judges.

Because they want a competitive final with two people who can dance . They don't want an absurd gap in ability. They had alternative potential finalists with Jade and Zoe and possibly Laila and even Nathalie with more and more sustained improvement - but they now have a big ability gap thats too obvious.

They also don't want to have to explain why an outstanding Black dancer or yet another really good attractive young white female couldn't win.

Because they don't want the show to look absurd with winning decided by personality and audience demographics alone.

Because they are not allowed to put on personality or beauty contests - the selling point and the one they defend the show on is the learning and demonstration of a skill- and that needs a couple of the best dancers in the final to look credible .

They only have a problem if they are foolish enough to release the voting figures and it becomes obvious again that the vote went to people who couldn't dance well. Then they get hit from both directions by people asking why their vote didn't matter and by critics pointing out the voting made the dancing irrelevant.

I'd go on polls, on leaks to newspapers, on general conversations, that Chris tops the public vote up til now. Can that change over time? Can that be wrong? Sure. But I'd still put my money on it being the case. And I still think it'll be the case by the semis.

Whoever is in a two-person final will suck. You know which way the judges and the public are leaning from the semis. It's like watching a repeat - pointless and a ratings killer.

A three person final of Ali, Ricky W and Chris will work ok. It keeps purists happy and those looking for a little entertainment. A Ricky W or Ali vs Jade vs Chris final would have been better for producers because it would cater to all three sections of the Strictly audience ... best technical contestant vs best improving (journey) candidate vs public entertainment favourite. They've lost that chance now, so they've only got two choices left: judges' favourite vs public favourite ... or judges' favourite vs judges' favourite.

If they don't find a way to get back to a three couples final, they're either gonna get a snoozefest for a large chunk of their audience of a Ricky W v Ali final, where a lot of people don't care who wins. Or if the judges fail to engineer things properly, they'll get a Ricky W or Ali vs Chris final, where the public favourite will easily win. Neither a good scenario from a production/ratings POV, so they better get back to a three couples final somehow.

Re the journey thing about Chris Hollins, if the judges don't manage to keep him out of a final, I suspect it would be Ola's journey in the public perception, not his, that would see them lift the glitterball ... coupled with a failure of either Ali or Ricky W to connect with enough people.

If they stay on the two couples final route, however, my money would be that the final is Ricky W vs Ali, no matter how the public vote.

yes if that is what the public want. Its not fair that in a two person final the judges should get their usual second bit of the cherry and basically decide on half of the two we want to watch. Thank heavens that the votes messed up last year or we would have had the dreadful Lisa and Rachel to watch in the final. How dull.

To be honest I think the judges say should end next week.

yes unfortunately as the judges will save him over anyone.

Really?

Chris' Jive, Rumba & Cha Cha were leaps and bounds ahead of Laila's.

I think Natalie & Chris are probably on par with the Latin alright.

Its and entertainment programme though - not a championship dancing competition. I agree they need two people in the final who can compete with each other - but there are more ways to compete than just being the best dancers. I would imagine that any of the ones left now are able to compete on equal footing with each other if you take together ability, style, popularity with the public and the right dance. Why should the "best" dancer get to the final if the publi - who spend their money voting - don't like to watch them. We had that last year with Lisa Snowden who the judges kept in week after week despite her popularity with the viewers being questionable. We nearly had a Rachel v Lisa final. Arguable the two best dancers technically - but certainly not who the public wanted to watch. How boring would that have been for everyone except the judges.

Even if they know the vote gap the problem is it has to be big and sustained next week. Dancing on Ice had the problem that zoe and Jessica both had zilch votes as the worst dancers were eating up 60% of them, but they kept on exchanging the order who got most each week. The vote perversely went most to which of them scored least points that week.The judges ended up with both in the dance off and Zoe going because they gave Zoe a higher mark that week - if they hadn't someone else would have been in the dance off with her and Zoe might have made the last rounds. Bottom line - even if you have the vote figures and try and predict the outcome of giving various marks it doesn't always work .

Whilst it is certainly true that if the judges had it their way, Ali and Ricky would be in the final.

However I don't think they are both a shoe-in to make the final 3.

If we presume that the final 4 is Ali, Chris, Natalie and Ricky.*

Then I don't think it's out of the question that the public vote could actually be the judges leaderboard in reverse. Therefore putting both Ali and Ricky in the bottom 2.

At the very least, I have a feeling, at least one of Ali or Ricky will be in the bottom 2 for the next 2 weeks.

*I am making the presumption Laila goes next week, based on Chris and Natalie getting more votes than her this week, and that she will be up against one of Ali or Ricky next week. Of course depending on how judges place everyone next week, that may not be the case.

True, it doesn't always work. And even if it does work, it can happen just as easily that they just by chance get the scores the right way round to get an Ali vs Ricky W final ... doesn't need to be any conspiracy theories for the scenario I gave. I just gave the scenario to show the scores can go a way where the public phone favourite gets kicked out, cos the judges with the DO get two bites of the cherry. And we all know Chris is only gonna get one point from the judges if he's in with Ali and Ricky W, so half of the maths for the suggested scenario is already done.

I don't think the producers of any show would like to see someone who is most popular, for whatever reason, with their audience not make the finale ... so they better find a way to get back to a three couples final pretty sharpish to guarantee a less dangerous path to making sure that doesn't happen.

And certainly not a journalist on their flagship news programme

this thread explains why Strictly's ratings have gone down the toilet. They are neglecting what the audience wants to see by being so determined to have it as a straight dance contest.
Last year all the public favs would have been out - Sergeant, Austin and Tom - but for the voting glitch in the semi.
And this series is heading the same way with the judges desperate for an Ali vs Ricky Whittle final.
Strictly has been completely b*stardised. Tinkering with format, one single live show and a stupid 15min window to vote, the X Factor clash, and the rubbish Alesha being added to the panel has as good as killed this series.
I fear Laila is a dead dancer walking and when she is out I'll be uninterested in the remaining 4 couples. 2 are v poor and 2 are constantly talked up and over-marked.
Jade (ok, injured), Zoe and Tufnell would be a lot more entertaining than watching that gurning tool Hollins and the frankly hideous Natalie.

Chris in the final is a disaster anyway unless only Nat is there with him when its at least a level lawn. Winning against two much better dancers would be sillier than beating one and its more likely that Ali and Ricky will split a vote. Being beaten by two doesn't add much. He hasn't got the ability or a story - he just appeals to some people for some reason. I agree Ola has been more of a story and a character but is that enough? Nat might have looked like a contender if she had pushed on or repeated her 34 - she would then have had the ability box ticked and a massive improvement story and exit velocity - but now she's not got long to make that case.

Jade v Ali v Ricky W was the ideal final for them . Three people closer in ability, different stories, different strengths. Jade added the journey story and Ali or Ricky could win with a dance or two ticking the entertaining box. The show ought to have got there because they had Laila and Zoe as reserves, but fate ruined that cunning plan.

Ali v Ricky W would actually be their most unpredictable final for a long time. They are closer in ability than almost anyone else in the last two has been. The judges have problems with and things they like about both. Both can and have outscored the other. Both can get it wrong. You couldn't really predict the outcome. We know nothing of Ricky's vote. Its true neither has produced a great show stopping dance but neither has anyone else. I wouldn't lay odds that its going to be one of the weaker dancers who can't act as well who will manage it either. True next week there's a big challenge to entertain they will have to rise to - but if they do the last box will have been ticked.

That would mean it was a personality competition only and a large chunk of the audience, including me, would switch off. I don't think either Rachel or Lisa were dull. Attractive young men like Tom and Austin tend to be more popular.

When Laila goes I don't think I'll bother with this competition. Laila, Zoe, Jade were all my favourites this year with Laila topping them and I cannot stand the so called "personalities" and the other two wouldn't stand a chance against them.

Please SCD, don't give us ANOTHER bad winner.

I think you're describing finals that you'd like to see from your personal point of view ... Ali vs Ricky W vs Jade would be your 'personal' favourite final for your 'personal' reasons for what you want to see in a show.

I was describing what a perfect final was from a producer's POV. He/she might personally agree with you or not about who he/she might like to see in a final, but that's not his/hers job description. The job description for a high-rated show is to cater to ALL possible sectors of your audience. The Strictly audience is basically made up of three sections:

1) Dance purists. They want to see the best technical dancer win

2) The 'journey' folks - they want to see the person who improves the most over the series win

3) The personality folks - they want to see the couple they like/bond to/connect with or the couple who most 'entertain' them in a myriad of possible ways win. If they turn out to be great dancers too, they're happy - but it's not a prerequisite for their support.

From a production POV, the best final is a final that delivers one of each. Most years they're lucky cos some of the three sections will end up with an overlap on certain candidates. This year, they don't look so lucky on that front. The lines are pretty clear drawn.

From a production POV, only RickyW/Ali vs Jade Vs Chris/Natalie possibly caters to ALL three sections of the audience. They've had that for this year, so now they've got to find a way to please at least two sections of their audience. An Ali vs Ricky W final will only really please one section.

You keep saying this. You obviously didn't like Tom last year but his average dance score over the series was 34.5 so he was obviously a pretty decent dancer. He was certainly a hell of a lot better than Laila whose current best score is lower than that and whose Latin is exceptionally suspect to say the least. He'd also scored more highly in four of his first seven dances than Zoe did in any of her seven.

Tom may not have been your choice (that's pretty clear) and I agree he was probably weaker than at least two others in the final four but not by much. Just because you didn't like him, to cite him as a bad winner is daft; particularly when you align him next to two of your favourites for this year - Laila and Zoe. It's all about personal preference.