Originally Posted by missfrankiecat:
“We 'know' nothing, of course (I try to write a catchy OP for obvious reasons - 'we have good reason to suspect' ain't much of an opener).”
I prefer a truthful OP and title to be honest. God knows there's enough hyperbole elsewhere.
And from the reaction of other posters, I see I'm not alone in being annoyed by that absolutist statement. It smacks of dogma.
Originally Posted by missfrankiecat:
“We do know from other shows where the voting figures are published that generally (not always) the voting paths are pretty consistent.”
Yes, but they're over a much longer period. Hell, SCD voting used to be run over an entire
week - now it's 15 minutes on a Saturday evening.
So there'll naturally be far less votes cast (which is inherently more volatile), and people are far more likely to change their minds based on what they've seen. Or, for example, if a contestant had a high-profile incident (such as an injury or a goof) in the past 24 hours.
So the votes this year are almost certainly more volatile than in previous years.
In fact, they're so volatile that I suspect they're vulnerable to manipulation.
Originally Posted by missfrankiecat:
“ We have no idea whether that is the same for SCD, although the demographics of the show unless we believe the 'leaks' from previous years - especially last year - which suggest the voting was pretty consistent, actually.”
Again,
15 minutes. Not a lot of time.
Originally Posted by missfrankiecat:
“We also know that the place the judges have consistently put Ricky on the leader board (and Ali, other than the week she was in the dance-off) have made it difficult for him to end in the bottom two.”
Yes - and the less contestants, the less the judges marks count. That's always the case.
Originally Posted by missfrankiecat:
“ The leaks tend to suggest Chris is getting the public vote and the fact he isn't in the dance off tends to suggest that might be right. Just my opinion of course.”
It's a reasonable guess.
But it's not "know".