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Cola fans, Your boy can't win !!!! |
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#101 |
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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It is possible for any one to get through to the final. The reason being, if it is not possible for someone to be saved from a dance off then we have the same situation as last year with Tom. The whole situation with new tie votes system and an extra judge was brought it - at considerable cost - to ensure that the public COULD save someone, if they vote enough for them, obviously.
So, Cola might not win but they can - whatever the judges do. Otherwise we have Votegate all over again. What the rules do now is just not make it impossible for the third placed judges contestant to avoid a dance-off. They can mathematically avoid the dance-off. But that's not quite the same thing as saying if the public give them 90%+ of votes they'll be in the final. The judges can still vote their leaderboard in such a way that the public vote counts for nothing, and the public favourite gets kicked by them in a dance-off. |
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#102 |
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Join Date: Jan 2008
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I'm beginning to think that this thread is reminiscent of Lord Haw Haw in WW2.
"Indigo calling, Indigo calling; your man is surrounded by superior dancers - give up now before he is totally humiliated." |
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#103 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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But this is what happened last year.
We had a potential two person final. It was not possiblefor the public to save one person from the dance off and so there was, understandably, uproar. I quite agree a judges fave will be there too and I cannot ever see it being Laila and Chris, for that reason. However, if either are topping the public vote I cannot see under the 'new clean honest 2009 BBC scoring system' that the top scoring celeb (whomever it is) won't get through. Yes, the judges get two chances so it is tough. This popular person is going to have to top the public vote every week now unless they are high on the score board. I've not done any maths just taken the simple fact that the BBC have changed things with professional advice to ensure the public can influence the dance off. If a situation reoccurs where the judges have scored and the public vote means nothing that is exactly the same as the Votegate position last year. I can understand the BBC getting it wrong again as they are rubbish at forseeing things, but not if they have had professional advice. |
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#104 |
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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I'm beginning to think that this thread is reminiscent of Lord Haw Haw in WW2.
"Indigo calling, Indigo calling; your man is surrounded by superior dancers - give up now before he is totally humiliated." If Z's most popular with your audience, it's not a good idea to leave a system in place where Z doesn't make the final, unless you seriously want to rebrand the concept behind your show in future years. |
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#105 |
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Join Date: Nov 2006
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Okay I'm feeling a bit thick here because based on what we know so far - i.e. it looks like Chris is at the top of the public vote and Ricky is at the bottom - I think Chris has a decent chance of making a two couple final.
If Chris is at the top of the public vote and Ricky is at the bottom, surely some of the most likely outcomes will be - Ricky & Natalie 3 + 1 = 4 points Ali & Brian 2 + 2 = 4 points Chris & Ola 1 + 3 = 4 point - so the dance off will be between Ricky & Ali because the public vote will prevail and Chris will be in the final. or Ricky & Natalie 3 + 1 = 4 points Ali & Brian 3 + 2 = 5 points Chris & Ola 2 + 3 = 5 points - so the dance off will be between Ricky & Ali because the public vote will prevail and Chris will be in the final. Ali & Brian 3 + 2 = 5 points Ricky & Natalie 3 + 1 = 4 points Chris & Ola 2 + 3 = 5 point - so the dance off will be between Ricky & Ali because the public vote will prevail and Chris will be in the final. It is late so please tell me what am I missing here?
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#106 |
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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Quote:
But this is what happened last year.
We had a potential two person final. It was not possiblefor the public to save one person from the dance off and so there was, understandably, uproar. I quite agree a judges fave will be there too and I cannot ever see it being Laila and Chris, for that reason. However, if either are topping the public vote I cannot see under the 'new clean honest 2009 BBC scoring system' that the top scoring celeb (whomever it is) won't get through. Yes, the judges get two chances so it is tough. This popular person is going to have to top the public vote every week now unless they are high on the score board. I've not done any maths just taken the simple fact that the BBC have changed things with professional advice to ensure the public can influence the dance off. JUDGES TABLE X - 3 Y - 2 Z - 1 PUBLIC VOTE Z - 3 X - 2 Y - 1 Totals: X = 3 + 2 = 5 Y = 2 + 1 = 3 Z = 1 + 3 = 4 X automatically goes to the final. DO is Y vs Z. Z tops the public vote - judges kick out Z in the dance-off. Public favourite is gone. That's as impartial as I can do it. :=D |
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#107 |
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Well, that's almost true. In a three couples standard final, the public will be guaranteed to get their favourite to the final. It's not true when the final is only two couples, cos the judges get two bites at the cherry in a three-person semi.
What the rules do now is just not make it impossible for the third placed judges contestant to avoid a dance-off. They can mathematically avoid the dance-off. But that's not quite the same thing as saying if the public give them 90%+ of votes they'll be in the final. The judges can still vote their leaderboard in such a way that the public vote counts for nothing, and the public favourite gets kicked by them in a dance-off. If the semi final is Chris, Ali and Ricky then it is more likely than not that Chris will be 3rd on the leaderboard because he is the weakest dancer of those 3. Would you prefer that the judges do not score based on ability? |
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#108 |
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Join Date: Jan 2008
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Here's the maths for you where public favourite gets kicked out in a three person semi:
JUDGES TABLE X - 3 Y - 2 Z - 1 PUBLIC VOTE Z - 3 X - 2 Y - 1 Totals: X = 3 + 2 = 5 Y = 2 + 1 = 3 Z = 1 + 3 = 4 X automatically goes to the final. DO is Y vs Z. Z tops the public vote - judges kick out Z in the dance-off. Public favourite is gone. That's as impartial as I can do it. :=D i.e. X+Y. X+Z. Y+Z. Nothing is certain. |
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#109 |
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Join Date: Oct 2007
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Here's the maths for you where public favourite gets kicked out in a three person semi:
JUDGES TABLE X - 3 Y - 2 Z - 1 PUBLIC VOTE Z - 3 X - 2 Y - 1 Totals: X = 3 + 2 = 5 Y = 2 + 1 = 3 Z = 1 + 3 = 4 X automatically goes to the final. DO is Y vs Z. Z tops the public vote - judges kick out Z in the dance-off. Public favourite is gone. That's as impartial as I can do it. :=D |
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#110 |
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Join Date: Oct 2005
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Yes, I can see that now. Thanks.
I'm thinking of what was said re:Tom. Of course there was *no way* he could be saved from the DO whereas in your situation had the public votes been mixed differently then, yes, the public can technically influence the dance off. Iam with you now. Saying the judges can ensure the result they want assumes they know the public voting order though, and that's not necessarily going to be the case with a quarter and a semi where new voters come out of the woodwork - especially if someone pulls a performance like Ramps' Argentine Tango out of the hat. There is also less likely to be colusion on scores with Darcey Bussell involved. I am damn sure she will vote exactly the way she feels. I also think she is likely to have an influence on floating voters of which there are many at these later stages. We've all got pretty used to taking some of the judges with a pinch of salt but I don't think we'll feel the same about her. |
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#111 |
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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Depending on the judges and the publice the permutations can put any one of three in the dance off.
i.e. X+Y. X+Z. Y+Z. Nothing is certain. I think the point of this thread though is that, as can be seen by some posts, a lot of the audience are under the impression that whoever tops the public vote will make the final. They just assume that it must be so, cos it's such an obvious idea to them ... cos that's the concept of the show. The system when you drop to a two couple final, and a three couple semi, means though that you can get 99% of the public vote and still not make the final. The summary being, the scoring system is mathematically all fair and square and above board. But from a production POV, leaving in place a situation where there's ANY possibility that your audience favourite doesn't make your final is a total disaster for the concept on which your show and its ratings are built. |
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#112 |
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So can some tell me what I am missing as I asked nicely in my post #105?
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#113 |
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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So can some tell me what I am missing as I asked nicely in my post #105?
![]() ![]() What production should be worried about is that more than one of those permutations can see their audience favourite not make the final. They should have created a system where there is NO permutation where audience favourite doesn't make the final. They have that in the case of a four-person semi ... but not when it drops to three in the semi. Things go wrong for them in the way the judges score the semi and a few people are gonna be on the way to producing for BBC4 rather than primetime Saturday night BBC1.
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#114 |
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Join Date: Nov 2006
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There are lots of permutations possible - you're right.
![]() What production should be worried about is that more than one of those permutations can see their audience favourite not make the final. They should have created a system where there is NO permutation where audience favourite doesn't make the final. They have that in the case of a four-person semi ... but not when it drops to three in the semi. Things go wrong for them in the way the judges score the semi and a few people are gonna be on the way to producing for BBC4 rather than primetime Saturday night BBC1. ![]()
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#115 |
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Join Date: May 2008
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I'd question whether Austin Healey was ever favourite. I suspect Tom, like Mark Ramprakash, was always the audience favourite. The crunch from a production POV comes at semi-final stage ... of course, in earlier rounds you will lose people who came higher on the public vote than the other DO contestant all the time - a helluva lot of weeks that will be the case. Austin went in the QFs iirc. And I'm sure you were right at that point he would have been more popular than Lisa. But the public still had Tom left.
The producer's nightmare is the person who wins the semi public vote not making the final. I don't think that's ever happened - and for a show that relies on audience participation for a large slice of its audience, it shouldn't ever happen. The personalities don't really come in to it. The show's been tailored now to make sure, in normal circumstances, that it has more dance credibility ... three couple finals - effectively, two judges picks and a crumb of one place no matter what for audience favourite. If you go to two couples final and the audience doesn't get its crumb, you're in serious trouble ratings wise not just for that year, but for future years. The concept is the judges have their say and 'you, the public' have your say. The moment that becomes only 'you, the public, might sometimes have a say', you're in big trouble in terms of keeping your show primetime 8million+ territory. Also, although there was that almighty cock up with the judges scores last year, it was quite clear that the judges wished to score Rachel and Lisa ahead of Tom. Had they not tied the score, it's quite possible he may have gone out despite being the public's favourite. Do you think the tied score and the ensuing debacle was deliberate to get Tom through or do you think the producers hadn't thought that one out properly? Again, I'm not suggesting anything - just interested. |
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#116 |
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Join Date: Dec 2006
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Which is why we have got to do something now - drive the point home to the Beeb that if they don't make it a three couple final it is a pointless viewer vote as the judges will decide the finalists.
If necessary we tell the that unless it is a three couple final and made clear that is the case we will get OFCOM involved |
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#117 |
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Join Date: Dec 2008
Posts: 7,654
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Quote:
There are lots of permutations possible - you're right.
![]() What production should be worried about is that more than one of those permutations can see their audience favourite not make the final. They should have created a system where there is NO permutation where audience favourite doesn't make the final. They have that in the case of a four-person semi ... but not when it drops to three in the semi. Things go wrong for them in the way the judges score the semi and a few people are gonna be on the way to producing for BBC4 rather than primetime Saturday night BBC1. ![]() Couple B : 3 (judges) + 3 (public) = 6 Couple C : 2 (judges) + 1 (public) = 3 Couple D : 1 (judges) + 4 (public) = 5 C vs D in the dance-off : D goes home. |
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#118 |
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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So you don't think that Gethin won the vote in series 5 then? He was the only semi finalist never to have been in a dance off. I'm not trying to advance the cause one way or the other here - just curious.
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Also, although there was that almighty cock up with the judges scores last year, it was quite clear that the judges wished to score Rachel and Lisa ahead of Tom. Had they not tied the score, it's quite possible he may have gone out despite being the public's favourite. Do you think the tied score and the ensuing debacle was deliberate to get Tom through or do you think the producers hadn't thought that one out properly? Again, I'm not suggesting anything - just interested.
![]() The changes they made to the rules for this year must have looked great from a production POV. Effectively giving the judges two picks for a final does add more dancing credibility to the final. The public do still 'almost always' (EDIT - after Monkseal's maths) get to have their favourite in the final too. Everybody's happy. I'm sure the meeting went real well that decided it. Problem is, again they didn't examine all scenarios. Their new 'everybody happy' system only works if the final is three couples. Drop to two and suddenly you got the problem that your audience favourite has the possibility to get the semi-final chop ... omg, the judges got too much potential power suddenly again. ^^ Maybe again, they'll just try to wing it and come up with something on the fly if worst case scenario materialises ... eg, announcing cos it's only two couples in final, we've decided no DO for semi and top combined judges/public score goes through. Or maybe, they'll just let what will be, be ... even if their worst case scenario emerges. Wouldn't envy them their jobs in future years if they do though. A primetime reality TV show built on public involvement where the public can reach the conclusion it's not worth voting cos you might not even get your favourite to the final will certainly have its work cut out.
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#119 |
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Couple A : 4(judges) + 2 (public) = 6
Couple B : 3 (judges) + 3 (public) = 6 Couple C : 2 (judges) + 1 (public) = 3 Couple D : 1 (judges) + 4 (public) = 5 C vs D in the dance-off : D goes home. |
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#120 |
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Join Date: May 2008
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I honestly don't know the numbers on that. But since that was a year where production were blessed with big 'crossover' contestants - by that I mean people who both the purists and the public like - I'd guess it would have been a close call and fluid public vote from week to week. Just my guess. I get the feeling that both Alesha and Matt Di Angelo had strong public followings. Even with a two couple final, I doubt that was a year that caused many sleepless nights on the production side. I'd be surprised if there was one clear public favourite week to week, but three or so very strong camps of support.
I think they hadn't thought it out properly and were just merrily moving on through. I think they would have realised the error of their ways and done the same thing to the rules for future years even if Tom hadn't topped the public vote btw, once they realised what the judges making first and second tied did ... but I'm sure as hell Tom topping the public vote added an extra sense of panic to the equation on the night. ![]() The changes they made to the rules for this year must have looked great from a production POV. Effectively giving the judges two picks for a final does add more dancing credibility to the final. The public do still 'almost always' (EDIT - after Monkseal's maths) get to have their favourite in the final too. Everybody's happy. I'm sure the meeting went real well that decided it. Problem is, again they didn't examine all scenarios. Their new 'everybody happy' system only works if the final is three couples. Drop to two and suddenly you got the problem that your audience favourite has the possibility to get the semi-final chop ... omg, the judges got too much potential power suddenly again. ^^ Maybe again, they'll just try to wing it and come up with something on the fly if worst case scenario materialises ... eg, announcing cos it's only two couples in final, we've decided no DO for semi and top combined judges/public score goes through. Or maybe, they'll just let what will be, be ... even if their worst case scenario emerges. Wouldn't envy them their jobs in future years if they do though. A primetime reality TV show built on public involvement where the public can reach the conclusion it's not worth voting cos you might not even get your favourite to the final will certainly have its work cut out. ![]() I'd guess the problem would arise if (as has been rumoured) Chris is significantly ahead in the public vote and those behind him are less than popular. That was probably the case with Tom last year and, in that respect, the tied vote may well have been a blessing in disguise (if what you say about production values is true) because it meant that they had to guarantee Tom a place in the final whereas he wouldn't have had that (given the standard of his dancing on the night) if the scores hadn't been tied. Interesting. |
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#121 |
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Join Date: Nov 2009
Posts: 276
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Can someone please send this thread to the bbc strictly twitter feed
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#122 |
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Join Date: Aug 2009
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Ah, so you reckon it's not a problem if the public's favourite on the night (or even over the whole/most of the series) goes out before the final provided that the voting is reasonably close. I think there's a good chance that Gethin did top the vote on the semi final night and quite possibly finished ahead of the others most other weeks too, but I agree that Alesha and Matt also probably had good banks of support so the production team wouldn't have been too disheartened with the (more marginal) favourite going out as they were still pretty much guaranteed a decent final audience/vote whatever the result.
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I'd guess the problem would arise if (as has been rumoured) Chris is significantly ahead in the public vote and those behind him are less than popular. That was probably the case with Tom last year and, in that respect, the tied vote may well have been a blessing in disguise (if what you say about production values is true) because it meant that they had to guarantee Tom a place in the final whereas he wouldn't have had that (given the standard of his dancing on the night) if the scores hadn't been tied.
Interesting. Your scenario of someone being way ahead of everybody else is the real disaster lying in wait ... and, as Monkseal bothered to do the maths better than me, there is even a small mathematical possibility that person could still get kicked in a 4 couples semi. If you don't devise a system to prevent a scenario like that, you're relying on luck alone to protect you from serious ratings problems. If you play public involvement TV, people expect something for their pennies. You don't have to give them a whole loaf, but you sure as hell better make sure you give them at least a crumb. Take that away and future ratings game over. |
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#123 |
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Join Date: Apr 2004
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I shall continue to vote for Chris and Ola regardless as I think they do stand a reasonable chance of winning also they have entertained and I've really enjoyed watching them.
To be perfectly honest if it was a Ricky and Ali final viewing figures would diminish,they've had weeks now to try and transfer some personality on to the dance floor ,but it's just not happened and their performances are dull...let's face it I'm not the only one with that view,we all read the forums. Chris and Ola's charleston on Saturday was brilliant it epitomised the essence of what Strictly is all about. Ellie |
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#124 |
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Join Date: Jul 2003
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in a two person final the judges decide who the finalists are.
No matter how much you vote for Chris if they want a Ricky and Ali final under current rules that's what they'll get. In my opinion this is what they want so not really worth voting unless the rules change. In an ideal world the dancers would solve it because one would do better and the votes would follow but the votes are based on all sorts of unrelated factors so the result can be perfectly random. |
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#125 |
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Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 34,226
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There are lots of permutations possible - you're right.
![]() What production should be worried about is that more than one of those permutations can see their audience favourite not make the final. They should have created a system where there is NO permutation where audience favourite doesn't make the final. They have that in the case of a four-person semi ... but not when it drops to three in the semi. Things go wrong for them in the way the judges score the semi and a few people are gonna be on the way to producing for BBC4 rather than primetime Saturday night BBC1. ![]() The rules are the same throughout. Its entirely possible that someone leading the polls can go any week. It can happen in the SF too but only if you are the worst performer there. Thats because you need to perform relatively well too. Not being the worst seems a reasonable requirement to be assured of staying. The whole point of the dance off was to stop the public vote alone determining both finalists because they had the experience of one sided finals that were terrible and finals where the best dancers didn't get into the final. The idea that popularity alone should get you to the final where it will probably carry you to the win is just a recipe for a pointless final and if you don't win it just highlights that the votes that got you there meant not a lot. |
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