The ONLY way Chris can make the final is if...

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mikeybaby76

03-12-2009

Lalia goes this week....

...then Ricky finishes top of the leaderboard NEXT week.

This is why I think.

Next week judges score

Ricky 3
Ali 2
Chris 1

Public score

Ricky 1
Ali 2
Chris 3

The public vote means it would be Ali and Ricky in the dance off.

I assume Ali is more liked than Ricky so that is my feeling.

However if Ali tops next weeks judges leaderboard (5) it would leave Ricky (3) and Chris (4) in the dance off.... withg Chris going...

I think it is out of Chris's hands. He can only really hope.

However if he does make the 2 way final I think he WILL win..

Muinimula

03-12-2009

Or...he could work hard and try to get a higher score from the judges, like he managed this week. Just a thought.

jill1812

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by Muinimula:
“Or...he could work hard and try to get a higher score from the judges, like he managed this week. Just a thought.”

What you mean work hard, improve his dancing even more, and get through on a combination of judges score and audience votes. Ridiculous suggestion!

He was second this week the waltz is a known high scorer, I think the samba will suit him so maybe he'll do well.

What name??

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by Muinimula:
“Or...he could work hard and try to get a higher score from the judges, like he managed this week. Just a thought.”

What a silly thought. They can't introduce a silly dance to suit his mugging every week.

thenetworkbabe

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by mikeybaby76:
“Lalia goes this week....

...then Ricky finishes top of the leaderboard NEXT week.

This is why I think.

Next week judges score

Ricky 3
Ali 2
Chris 1

Public score

Ricky 1
Ali 2
Chris 3

The public vote means it would be Ali and Ricky in the dance off.

I assume Ali is more liked than Ricky so that is my feeling.

However if Ali tops next weeks judges leaderboard (5) it would leave Ricky (3) and Chris (4) in the dance off.... withg Chris going...

I think it is out of Chris's hands. He can only really hope.

However if he does make the 2 way final I think he WILL win..”

Chris is only dependant on chance in the same way as Ali and Ricky also have no control of their destiny either. They can outscore Chris by miles and each other by any amount in any order but who gets ino a dance off is determined by the order of the public vote however big or small the differences are. that order may have nothing to do with what they do - Ricky's fans will probably vote more this week for example. Doing well with the public vote can even have the opposite to intended effect if you end up in he dance off with the other good dancer. Laila's chances are also made more difficult than they should be by the fact that she can dance much better than Chris and still go home.

Vic

03-12-2009

Oh great so now Laila is some kind of sacrificial lamb in the Hollins to win at all costs masterplan?

I actually quite like Chris and Ola but I'm going rapidly off them reading some threads on here! Can't we just leave it all up to fate and the voting public?

mikeybaby76

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by Vic:
“Oh great so now Laila is some kind of sacrificial lamb in the Hollins to win at all costs masterplan?

I actually quite like Chris and Ola but I'm going rapidly off them reading some threads on here! Can't we just leave it all up to fate and the voting public? ”

Vic, I DONT want him to win.. I want Ali and Brian to win all the way!! If it was a dance comp they would take it!! I just hope the rest of us back her too..

Chris winning would be bad news.. he is ok but id say the 6th best dancer out of all of them.. and he grates on me so much!! I much prefer he goes this week to be honest!!

Passoa

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by mikeybaby76:
“Vic, I DONT want him to win.. I want Ali and Brian to win all the way!! If it was a dance comp they would take it!! I just hope the rest of us back her too..

Chris winning would be bad news.. he is ok but id say the 6th best dancer out of all of them.. and he grates on me so much!! I much prefer he goes this week to be honest!!”

Actually if it was a dance comp Ricky would win....

Ricky has got it a lot harder as male celeb yet is at the same level as Ali (if not better).

Ali's latin just isn't up to scratch, and the shaky arm in ballroom is offputting.

That said, Ricky keeps making mistakes which is his weak link.

Showdance wise, I'd put my money on Ricky's being FAR more entertaining and spectacular than Ali's.

gig-ge-dy

03-12-2009

I wouldn't say it's the only way. Looking at how some people have 'guessed' public voting over recent weeks, it wouldn't be a complete surprise to see the public vote this Saturday look like:

Chris - 4
Laila - 3
Ali - 2
Ricky - 1

If the judges then score, entirely possibly:

Ricky - 4
Ali - 3
Laila - 2
Chris -1

Everybody would have 5 points and because Laila and Chris came higher in the public vote, the DO would be Ali vs Ricky. That would take him to the semi, with a much better chance of making the final.

mossy2103

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by Muinimula:
“Or...he could work hard and try to get a higher score from the judges, like he managed this week. Just a thought.”

No, that's far to sensible and credible a solution.

ESPIONdansant

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by gig-ge-dy:
“I wouldn't say it's the only way. Looking at how some people have 'guessed' public voting over recent weeks, it wouldn't be a complete surprise to see the public vote this Saturday look like:

Chris - 4
Laila - 3
Ali - 2
Ricky - 1

If the judges then score, entirely possibly:

Ricky - 4
Ali - 3
Laila - 2
Chris -1

Everybody would have 5 points and because Laila and Chris came higher in the public vote, the DO would be Ali vs Ricky. That would take him to the semi, with a much better chance of making the final.”

How much would I enjoy seeing the judges faced with this scenario!

trevvytrev21

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by ESPIONdansant:
“How much would I enjoy seeing the judges faced with this scenario!”

Would love it! Judges would be split I reckon and Len would decide - think he'd keep Ali.

melbatb

03-12-2009

Though couldn't Laila be in the dance off with Ricky, and as she will be dancing her ballroom she could possbly be better than Ricky - especially of he makes one of his usual mistakes! It is not likely but it could happen!

gig-ge-dy

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by ESPIONdansant:
“How much would I enjoy seeing the judges faced with this scenario!”

Well, the ironic thing for Chris fans is that their easier way to actually get him to the final is to hope for him to be bottom of the judges leaderboard this Saturday... which I doubt many tuning in on the night will actually be hoping for.

If he comes above Laila with the judges, I think Laila will be almost certain to go. If she comes third with the judges though and Chris fans also tactically throw some votes her way, could just be down to which order the judges place Ricky and Ali. Get it wrong and they could easily end up with the big, non-appreciation thread stylee, Rapid vs Vapid dance-off.

CaptainSensible

03-12-2009

I think I'm missing something here; if Chris & Ola are getting the most votes from the public, then they will be in the final regardless of how the judges score them.

DavidJames

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by Muinimula:
“Or...he could work hard and try to get a higher score from the judges, like he managed this week. Just a thought.”

Silly idea.

Next you'll be suggesting that the judges award scores based on dance performance.

DavidJames

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by ESPIONdansant:
“How much would I enjoy seeing the judges faced with this scenario!”

What, having to allow a good dancer to go at the expense of a bad one.

Yeah. That'd be a laugh a minute, that one.

gig-ge-dy

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by CaptainSensible:
“I think I'm missing something here; if Chris & Ola are getting the most votes from the public, then they will be in the final regardless of how the judges score them.”

That's what most of the public probably expect also, since it's the intuitive thing to think. The scoring system actually doesn't guarantee that, however. The maths has been done to death on other threads. If you don't wanna check them, summary of how person who tops public poll in a semi can get kicked out:

JUDGES SCORES
X = 3
Y = 2
Z = 1

PUBLIC VOTE
Z = 3
X = 2
Y = 1

Combined scores: X=5, Y=3, Z=4

X goes through to the final, and the public vote winner Z goes in to a dance-off with Y. Z came bottom with the judges first time around, so would be favourite to get kicked from the DO.

Robert Romarin

03-12-2009

Because of the slightly higher weight given to the public vote, the televote winner cannot finish bottom overall...but can finish second bottom.

The DO brings with it the possibility of the televote winner being eliminated.

fatskia

03-12-2009

The judges can manipulate Chris out of it, if they know the order of public popularity (which they probably do). They can do the same with any of the contestants.

eg.
Judges
Ali 4
Laila 3
Ricky 2
Chris 1

Public
Chris 4 + 1 = 5
Laila 3 + 3 = 6
Ali 2 + 4 = 6
Ricky 1 + 2 = 3

Dance off Ricky and Chris, with Chris going.

gig-ge-dy

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by fatskia:
“The judges can manipulate Chris out of it, if they know the order of public popularity (which they probably do). They can do the same with any of the contestants.

eg.
Judges
Ali 4
Laila 3
Ricky 2
Chris 1

Public
Chris 4 + 1 = 5
Laila 3 + 3 = 6
Ali 2 + 4 = 6
Ricky 1 + 2 = 3

Dance off Ricky and Chris, with Chris going.”

Laila above Ricky? Hehe, be like watching their faces drinking cockroach shakes as they handed out the scores.

Icarus17

03-12-2009

Originally Posted by Vic:
“Oh great so now Laila is some kind of sacrificial lamb in the Hollins to win at all costs masterplan?

I actually quite like Chris and Ola but I'm going rapidly off them reading some threads on here! Can't we just leave it all up to fate and the voting public? ”

Eh? Are Chris and Ola adopting multiple identities and posting on all those threads? If so, you have a point; if not, you might as well go off them because of the dreadful weather we've had over the last month. I agree with you that the threads are getting very, very tedious indeed, but there's a simple solution to that: don't read them. Well, not all of them at any rate.

Bonnie96

04-12-2009

Whoever ends up bottom of the leaderboard has all these chances to avoid the Dance Off

Code:

4+1=5   3+2=5   2+3=5  1+4=5    LB Top+2nd DO
4+4=8   3+1=4   2+2=4  1+3=4    LB 2nd+3rd DO
4+3=7   3+1=4   2+2=4  1+4=5    LB 2nd+3rd DO
4+1=5   3+3=6   2+2=4  1+4=5    LB Top+3rd DO
4+3=7   3+2=5   2+1=3  1+4=5    LB 2nd+3rd DO
4+2=6   3+1=4   2+3=5  1+4=5    LB 2nd+3rd DO

Ties:

4 4 4 3
4+1=5   4+2=6   4+3=7  3+4=7    LB 2/3 tied Top DO
4+1=5   4+2=6   4+4=8  3+3=6    LB 2/3 tied Top DO

4 4 3 3
4+1=5   4+2=6   3+3=6  3+4=7    LB 2/2 tied Top DO

4 4 3 2
4+1=5   4+2=6   3+3=6  2+4=6    LB 2/2 tied Top DO
4+1=5   4+3=7   3+2=5  2+4=6    LB 1/2 tied Top + 2nd DO
4+1=5   4+4=8   3+2=5  2+3=5    LB 1/2 tied Top + 2nd DO
4+2=6   4+3=7   3+1=4  2+4=6    LB 1/2 tied Top + 2nd DO

4 3 3 2
4+1=5   3+2=5   3+3=6  2+4=6    LB Top + 1/2 tied 2nd DO
4+1=5   3+4=7   3+2=5  2+3=5    LB Top + 1/2 tied 2nd DO
4+2=6   3+1=4   3+3=6  2+4=6    LB Top + 1/2 tied 2nd DO
4+3=7   3+1=4   3+2=5  2+4=6    LB 2/2 tied 2nd DO
4+4=8   3+1=4   3+2=5  2+3=5    LB 2/2 tied 2nd DO

4 3 2 2
4+1=5   3+2=5   2+3=5  2+4=6    LB Top + 2nd DO

KipsKaz

04-12-2009

This thread pretty much sums up for me the whole problem with Strictly now. It's got very little to do with the dancing. Why have a 'try to save Chris' thread before he's even danced on Sat?

Personally, I don't believe there are any conspiracies to save or get rid of certain couples. I just think the judges see things from a different perspective (ie dancing). Yes I think they do perhaps over mark sometimes, but generally I think they've got the leaderboard positioning right most weeks.

Can we just ditch the dancing next year?

tonydancer

04-12-2009

If Chris is to go, it'll be in a 3-person semi-final next week, provided that it's Laila voted out this week, and the judges know who is higher in public voting, Ali or Ricky. This doesn't even have to the result of a BBC conspiracy, but of the judges' inside knowledge picked up over the weeks - or even via Arlene and her contacts at the Sun.

That person will then collect 3 judges' + 2 public points =5

Chris and the other one then have 4 & 3 points respectively, and it's all over for him bar the shouting.

But on another thread it's being claimed that Chris got 40% more votes than anyone else last week. I think the BBC might be fearing a mass switch-off, and would therefore be prepared to let him reach the final, and so certainly win the title.

All they have to do to achieve that is let everyone through this week and so create a 3-person final. All Chris has to do is amass more judges points than Laila next week, not too tall an order.

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