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Is it all over for Laila?
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daziechain
04-12-2009
If it is a Chris and Laila final .. then frankly it will be the worst final of all ... containing two very mediocre dancers.
Usually, even when there is one public favourite who has got through mostly on charm ... there is also one who has displayed the most dancing talent and has been consistent.

Chris and Laila's average score for the competition is around 28!! Ricky has never received a score of under 30 and Ali received her lowest score of 29 once, they have both averaged scores in the mid 30's.

To have a final without Ali or Ricky would be like considering a final without Alesha, Jill, Rachel or Natasha .. it's just potty for a dancing comp.
Vic
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by -Sid-:
“What's this known poor voter appeal you mention regarding Laila?

She escaped the dance-off last week despite being second from bottom on the leaderboard and the week she and Anton finished last with their Jive.

I'd say they are a fairly popular couple (although not as well liked as Chris & Ola).

Also, as an audience member who has voted for Laila, I didn't feel at all resentful about her trip to Morocco. She had made a prior work commitment (just as most of the celebrities have) and it didn't seem to hinder her performance.”

100% what he just said!

Plus if she has this amazingly poor vote then you can but guess what Ricky W and Nat C got!!

Just because she appears to have about 6 supporters on this forum does not mean that's it for the whole voting public!

As for her trip to Morocco, it was one day, regardless of what the press said. Anton made it quite clear they missed one day...big whoop loads of the celebs have had to miss a day through their schedule!
Strictly_Irish
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by -Sid-:
“Well I'm a big fan of Laila's.

She and Anton seem very close now and her attitude has totally transformed. She sounded very upbeat in the latest training clips and I hope she can do herself justice come Saturday.”

Agree!

Being in the dance off made people realise she's not safe and also it seems to have changed her attitude.
-Sid-
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by soulmate61:
“30 hours, then the answer.

Bookies current elimination prices:

8/15 - Laila
7/2 - Chris
9/1 - Ricky
10/1 - Ali”

I'm not questioning your predictions, I'm questioning your reasoning behind them.

If Laila leaves this weekend, I suspect it will have more to do with her placing on the leaderboard and the outcome of the dance-off than her popularity with the public or some photo shoot in Morocco.

The reason the format of the show was changed two years ago was so that the judges could over-ride public opinion in these sorts of situations.

Originally Posted by daziechain:
“If it is a Chris and Laila final .. then frankly it will be the worst final of all ... containing two very mediocre dancers.
Usually, even when there is one public favourite who has got through mostly on charm ... there is also one who has displayed the most dancing talent and has been consistent.

Chris and Laila's average score for the competition is around 28!! Ricky has never received a score of under 30 and Ali received her lowest score of 29 once, they have both averaged scores in the mid 30's.

To have a final without Ali or Ricky would be like considering a final without Alesha, Jill, Rachel or Natasha .. it's just potty for a dancing comp.”

A good final will include the most entertaining couples.

Usually, the better dancers also tend to be the most watchable dancers (Alesha, Jill, Rachel and so on).

This year, however, there is a feeling that whilst Ali and Ricky might have scored more highly overall, they might not be as enjoyable to watch as Chris (certainly) and Laila (probably) amongst the majority of viewers.
tabithakitten
04-12-2009
Laila's vote seems quite unpredictable. She seemed to be sailing along nicely, avoiding the dance off despite some low/middling positions on the leaderboard in Latin weeks. Then she had rumbagate, in which she was saved probably, in no small part, due to sympathy in addition to a decent following built up over the previous weeks.

She ended up in the dance off the week of the waltz but all we know from that is that Natalie, Chris and Ali got more votes than she did that week but we also know that Laila managed to overturn Natalie's advantage last week, we can guess that nobody is having much success with the Cola bandwagon, we know she can beat Ricky in the vote so that leaves Ali.

We know Ali beat Laila a couple of weeks ago but we also know that Laila has beaten Ali (all public vote of course) in the past.

It's anyone's guess where Laila is in the standing but she could, quite conceivably be second with the public this week. That might, or might not be enough to avoid the dance off depending on the judges' scores. (God that's decisive!)
-Sid-
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by tabithakitten:
“Laila's vote seems quite unpredictable. She seemed to be sailing along nicely, avoiding the dance off despite some low/middling positions on the leaderboard in Latin weeks. Then she had rumbagate, in which she was saved probably, in no small part, due to sympathy in addition to a decent following built up over the previous weeks.

She ended up in the dance off the week of the waltz but all we know from that is that Natalie, Chris and Ali got more votes than she did that week but we also know that Laila managed to overturn Natalie's advantage last week, we can guess that nobody is having much success with the Cola bandwagon, we know she can beat Ricky in the vote so that leaves Ali.

We know Ali beat Laila a couple of weeks ago but we also know that Laila has beaten Ali (all public vote of course) in the past.

It's anyone's guess where Laila is in the standing but she could, quite conceivably be second with the public this week. That might, or might not be enough to avoid the dance off depending on the judges' scores. (God that's decisive!)”

When you put it like that, it's all quite exciting!
TylerTango
04-12-2009
I thought Laila's training looked the best.. but maybe that's just my blind bias.
fancynancy
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by -Sid-:
“When you put it like that, it's all quite exciting!”

Originally Posted by TylerTango:
“I thought Laila's training looked the best.. but maybe that's just my blind bias.”

I think maybe we're underestimating the Anton vote, too - or at least its potential to take Laila and Anton further than some might expect. Whilst he's not exactly flavour of the month on the boards - for a variety of reasons - it may well be that various controversies have completely whistled past the general viewing publics' earholes. I'm not just referring to Wotsitgate, either - Anton has been resoundingly derided for his lack of Latin flair, shall we say - but does the average viewer concur with that? I doubt it somehow.

Anton has a good deal more visibility on TV than any of the other pros - in fact, probably more than all the other pros put together - and he also has the advantage of appearing in Hole In The Wall less than an hour before SCD starts transmission. Plus, whether I, you, we ( ) like it or not, one has to suspect that he's popular with at least some ladies of a certain age. And that's not to denigrate that particular part of SCD's demographic - they've got as much right to like whoever it is they like for whatever reason it is they like them.

And yes, I am part of that demographic. And no - I don't fancy Anton.
TylerTango
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by fancynancy:
“I think maybe we're underestimating the Anton vote, too - or at least its potential to take Laila and Anton further than some might expect. Whilst he's not exactly flavour of the month on the boards - for a variety of reasons - it may well be that various controversies have completely whistled past the general viewing publics' earholes. I'm not just referring to Wotsitgate, either - Anton has been resoundingly derided for his lack of Latin flair, shall we say - but does the average viewer concur with that? I doubt it somehow.

Anton has a good deal more visibility on TV than any of the other pros - in fact, probably more than all the other pros put together - and he also has the advantage of appearing in Hole In The Wall less than an hour before SCD starts transmission. Plus, whether I, you, we ( ) like it or not, one has to suspect that he's popular with at least some ladies of a certain age. And that's not to denigrate that particular part of SCD's demographic - they've got as much right to like whoever it is they like for whatever reason it is they like them.

And yes, I am part of that demographic. And no - I don't fancy Anton. ”

Well as long as Laila gets through this week I don't care! Lol. I'm DYING to see their Argentine Tango...
-Sid-
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by fancynancy:
“I think maybe we're underestimating the Anton vote, too - or at least its potential to take Laila and Anton further than some might expect. Whilst he's not exactly flavour of the month on the boards - for a variety of reasons - it may well be that various controversies have completely whistled past the general viewing publics' earholes. I'm not just referring to Wotsitgate, either - Anton has been resoundingly derided for his lack of Latin flair, shall we say - but does the average viewer concur with that? I doubt it somehow.

Anton has a good deal more visibility on TV than any of the other pros - in fact, probably more than all the other pros put together - and he also has the advantage of appearing in Hole In The Wall less than an hour before SCD starts transmission. Plus, whether I, you, we ( ) like it or not, one has to suspect that he's popular with at least some ladies of a certain age. And that's not to denigrate that particular part of SCD's demographic - they've got as much right to like whoever it is they like for whatever reason it is they like them.

And yes, I am part of that demographic. And no - I don't fancy Anton. ”

You raise a valid point nancy.

I'm sure Anton has a very large and loyal fanbase that has been itching for him to get a half decent partner so that they can get fully behind him.

And they are making the most of it!
Bonnie96
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by -Sid-:
“When you put it like that, it's all quite exciting!”

It really is anybody's game.

No matter what the Judges Scores are they will be translated to 1-4 and the same with the Public Vote, therefore maximum 8 and minimum 2 overall.

Thousands of Public Votes might just as well be 6 in total (3, 2, 1 and 0 for one poor, unappealing couple - using whatever criteria the fickle GBP choose ).

The entire GBP does not get together and decide on voting strategy, and there are multiple permutations for any one of the 4 leaderboard positions to go through unscathed.

Saturday's show will be as it should - hopefully a cliffhanger till the very end.

'It ain't over till the fat lady sings' (bet you didn't know they'd booked me - eh? )
-Sid-
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by Bonnie96:
“It really is anybody's game.

No matter what the Judges Scores are they will be translated to 1-4 and the same with the Public Vote, therefore maximum 8 and minimum 2 overall.

Thousands of Public Votes might just as well be 6 in total (3, 2, 1 and 0 for one poor, unappealing couple - using whatever criteria the fickle GBP choose ).

The entire GBP does not get together and decide on voting strategy, and there are multiple permutations for any one of the 4 leaderboard positions to go through unscathed.

Saturday's show will be as it should - hopefully a cliffhanger till the very end.

'It ain't over till the fat lady sings' (bet you didn't know they'd booked me - eh? )”

lol Awwww don't say that!

I must admit, I'm now very excited about tomorrow night. Not sure I can bear to lose one of my favs two weeks on the trot though

Are you leaning towards one couple or the other yet?
fancynancy
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by -Sid-:
“You raise a valid point nancy.

I'm sure Anton has a very large and loyal fanbase that has been itching for him to get a half decent partner so that they can get fully behind him.

And they are making the most of it!”

And quite possibly there are others outside of those that comprise his fanbase who, if push comes to shove, might just vote for Anton out of sentimental reasons. There must be thousands of loyal viewers who've watched SCD from Series 1 who see Anton as a quintessence of SCD, and if he gets within sniffing distance of the final, will vote for him for that reason.
-Sid-
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by fancynancy:
“And quite possibly there are others outside of those that comprise his fanbase who, if push comes to shove, might just vote for Anton out of sentimental reasons. There must be thousands of loyal viewers who've watched SCD from Series 1 who see Anton as a quintessence of SCD, and if he gets within sniffing distance of the final, will vote for him for that reason.”

I do think there's more affection for the original Strictly pros and a desire to see them win (epsecially if they have a history of being knocked out early).
fatskia
04-12-2009
Its an unfortunate side effect of the dance-off and two dances that it pays to have one good dance.

If Anton is smart, he will make sure they have a really good American Smooth. If they do end up in a dance off with Ricky, they will probably have to go against Ricky's Foxtrot (unless the judges do an 'Austin' on him and score the CCC higher.)

There is a chance that Laila might out-dance Ricky in the dance off. It would be interesting to see what the judges did then.
soulmate61
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by -Sid-:
“
I'm not questioning your predictions, I'm questioning your reasoning behind them.
”

This forum's best-liked and least-liked forums paint a consistent picture of Laila's popularity. Some would say 1,500 diehard fans do not represent 8 million casual viewers. For some reason they will not dismiss the same forum trends about Ricky.

When Bruce announces the safe couples "in no particular order" he reads from a list obtained with great speed from the computerised counting agency, a list quickly copied many times for Tess, the band leader, TV control etc etc. If the list came over in descending order of votes it is questionable how much time there is to aggregate votes with marks, then to randomise the order to produce an announcement list. Shrewd observers in past years have noticed the known high pollers (as opposed to high scorers) were often announced first -- not every week.

Laila even when she is saved, tends to be announced towards the end.

Many straws in the wind, but that is all we shall get. The bookies have put their good folding money where their mouth is, but we shall see in 26 hours. There is many a slip between the cup and the lip. The last shock exit at the 4-man stage was Austin and Erin, the last shock at the 3-man stage was Gethin and Camilla. Before that it was Emma and Darren, but that was the year before dance-offs.
Bonnie96
04-12-2009
deleted - double post
Bonnie96
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by -Sid-:
“lol Awwww don't say that!

I must admit, I'm now very excited about tomorrow night. Not sure I can bear to lose one of my favs two weeks on the trot though

Are you leaning towards one couple or the other yet?”

You and me, Sid - only you and me lol

I'm tending to favour Laila and Anton for some inexplicable reason.
I think it might be Laila's exotic versus Anton's ordinariness without being overpowering that appeals plus, when she tries she can at least dance to a more than average level.
-Sid-
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by Bonnie96:
“You and me, Sid - only you and me lol

I'm tending to favour Laila and Anton for some inexplicable reason.
I think it might be Laila's exotic versus Anton's ordinariness without being overpowering that appeals plus, when she tries she can at least dance to a more than acceptable level.”

Anytime gorgeous

And I'm very pleased to hear you've been won over by Beauty and her Beast (a touch harsh but you know what I mean!).
Bonnie96
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by -Sid-:
“Anytime gorgeous

And I'm very pleased to hear you've been won over by Beauty and her Beast (a touch harsh but you know what I mean!).”

Absolutely!

Got the t'shirt.....etc

p.s. Did you notice the pic they used of Laila on ITT last night for the finishing school vid?

Gorgeous or wot? That's where the exotic comes in
soulmate61
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by Bonnie96:
“
I'm tending to favour Laila and Anton for some inexplicable reason.
I think it might be Laila's exotic versus Anton's ordinariness without being overpowering that appeals plus, when she tries she can at least dance to a more than average level.”

Last year Cheri was exotic and James was down-to-earth. Cheri's rumba then foxtrot caused a sensation. This year Laila did a very good foxtrot very early, but somehow unlike Cheri this did not capture public imagination. That furious P*** row really did not help perceptions of partnership harmony.

But good luck to all champions of lost causes -- you may need it.
Ignazio
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by fatskia:
“Its an unfortunate side effect of the dance-off and two dances that it pays to have one good dance.

If Anton is smart, he will make sure they have a really good American Smooth. If they do end up in a dance off with Ricky, they will probably have to go against Ricky's Foxtrot (unless the judges do an 'Austin' on him and score the CCC higher.)

There is a chance that Laila might out-dance Ricky in the dance off. It would be interesting to see what the judges did then.”

I noticed in Ricky's training clips that the FT does seem to expose his pigeon toes. Craig RH will zone in on that - although from what I've read, the condition is down to a football injury, so perhaps it's harsh to hold it against him.
Bonnie96
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by soulmate61:
“Last year Cheri was exotic and James was down-to-earth. Cheri's rumba then foxtrot caused a sensation. This year Laila did a very good foxtrot very early, but somehow unlike Cheri this did not capture public imagination. That furious P*** row really did not help perceptions of partnership harmony.

But good luck to all champions of lost causes -- you may need it. ”

I loved Cherie and James last year but her time came purely because 'classy' was her thing.
If it had been all glamourous ballroom, she'd have won before the rest were halfway through the competition

I like what I like because I like it
As I've said before, my winner had to withdraw so I'm just enjoying what I can of the show, but the passion has gone for me this year.
Tango Trish
04-12-2009
Originally Posted by daziechain:
“If it is a Chris and Laila final .. then frankly it will be the worst final of all ... containing two very mediocre dancers.
Usually, even when there is one public favourite who has got through mostly on charm ... there is also one who has displayed the most dancing talent and has been consistent.

Chris and Laila's average score for the competition is around 28!! Ricky has never received a score of under 30 and Ali received her lowest score of 29 once, they have both averaged scores in the mid 30's.

To have a final without Ali or Ricky would be like considering a final without Alesha, Jill, Rachel or Natasha .. it's just potty for a dancing comp.”

Didn't Ricky and Natalie only get 29 either last week or one before I remember Natalie saying "thats our first score under 30"
sueh21
04-12-2009
There is a chance that Laila might out-dance Ricky in the dance off. It would be interesting to see what the judges did then.[/quote]

I don't believe that the judges would do anything but pick Ricky in that scenario,unfortunately.He has very obviously been their favourite from early on.
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