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Chris v Laila

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Technophiles

05-12-2009

Originally Posted by MARTYM8:
“If Laila goes tonight and Ali tops the judges vote next week Chris is out. No matter how much he wins the public vote by!

Terrrible - but its true. Only way Chris can win now is if its an Ali vs Ricky bottom two this evening. So if you are a Chris fan and want him to win you need to vote for Laila tonight as she needs to beat Ali in the public vote for Chris to win the competition.

Crazy - but that's the disgraceful system this show has!”

No. If in an Ali/Chris/Ricky semi-final, the public vote runs exactly opposite to the judges' scores then Chris will go through.

From the perspective of Chris fans, if he is at the bottom of the leaderboard in the semi, you should want the least popular dancer to top the judges' leaderboard. The problem with that is, no-one knows whether Ali or Ricky is more popular.

Ali has been in the dance-off once, but since then she's been marked quite highly so it's not clear whether it's the public or judges that have saved her from the dance-off. Similarly Ricky has only been in the dance-off once and it is typical for a celeb to get increased public support after being in the dance-off (their fans start to vote for them, or increase the number of votes they give).

You can't just assume that Ali is more popular than Ricky, there's no evidence for that other than forum polls which represent the opinions of only a small section of the voting viewers.

Starpuss

05-12-2009

Originally Posted by Technophiles:
“
You can't just assume that Ali is more popular than Ricky, there's no evidence for that other than forum polls which represent the opinions of only a small section of the voting viewers. ”

I suspect that Ricky is more popular than Ali. The poll on here does not necessarily reflect the genneral publics opinion. From talking to people I have met Ricky is very popular

samitza

05-12-2009

I think the public vote will save Chris this week, so it will be Laila in the DO with either Ricky or Ali, I think probably Ali but it depends how much the judges decide to overmark her this week to ensure she is top of the leaderboard.

Apricot

05-12-2009

Originally Posted by samitza:
“I think the public vote will save Chris this week, so it will be Laila in the DO with either Ricky or Ali, I think probably Ali but it depends how much the judges decide to overmark her this week to ensure she is top of the leaderboard.”

With a Samba and a Tango?

I can't see her being top tonight. I really like Ali and would love to see her in the Final with Ricky but I fear the rigid Tango will highlight the shaking left elbow and hand. Fingers crossed she has overcome this.

Vivacious Lady

05-12-2009

Ok, I wasn't going to get into this speculating but I've no willpower it seems

From a theoretical viewpoint (rather than the merits of the various dancers) I'd have thought that the best result for Laila and Chris this week would have been a tie somewhere on the leader board. In that scenario, the audience vote becomes more significant.

Of course it happened a lot last year under the old scoring system which favoured the judges' vote, but probably won't happen this year now that it has been revised.

Technophiles

05-12-2009

Originally Posted by Vivacious Lady:
“Ok, I wasn't going to get into this speculating but I've no willpower it seems

From a theoretical viewpoint (rather than the merits of the various dancers) I'd have thought that the best result for Laila and Chris this week would have been a tie somewhere on the leader board. In that scenario, the audience vote becomes more significant.

Of course it happened a lot last year, but probably won't happen this year. ”

Yeah a tie would benefit Chris and Laila but I don't think that'll happen this year.
Don't remind me of last year... If only Len hadn't given Rachel an 8 for her 2nd American Smooth... tie broken, Tom out and Rachel takes the trophy. I'm not bitter

Bonnie96

05-12-2009

Last year, the final leaderboard for week 12 was:

Rachel & Vincent 4
Tom & Camilla 3
Lisa & Brendan 2
Austin & Erin 1

Austin & Lisa were in the Dance Off and these are all (I think!) the possibilities for that to have happened adding the Phone vote:

Code:

4+4=8 3+3=6 2+2=4 1+1=2   3rd+Bottom DO
4+4=8 3+3=6 2+1=3 1+2=3   3rd+Bottom DO
4+4=8 3+2=5 2+1=3 1+3=4   3rd+Bottom DO
4+3=7 3+4=7 2+1=3 1+2=3   3rd+Bottom DO
4+3=7 3+4=7 2+2=4 1+1=2   3rd+Bottom DO
4+2=6 3+4=7 2+3=5 1+1=2   3rd+Bottom DO
4+2=6 3+4=7 2+1=3 1+3=4   3rd+Bottom DO
4+2=6 3+3=6 2+1=3 1+4=5   3rd+Bottom DO
4+1=5 3+4=7 2+2=4 1+3=4   3rd+Bottom DO

If Ricky & Ali are placed 1st & 2nd on the leaderboard, the only permutation for Chris and Laila to go through is:

Code:

4+1=5   3+2=5  2+3=5  1+4=5    Top+2nd DO

(reversed leaderboard)

Or possibly in ties:

Ricky & Ali always ranked at the top.
(it's getting complicated now

)

Code:

4 4 4 3                                      
4+1=5   4+2=6   4+3=7  3+4=7    2/3 tied Top DO
4+1=5   4+2=6   4+4=8  3+3=6    2/3 tied Top DO

4 4 3 3
4+1=5    4+2=6   3+3=6  3+4=7   2/2 tied Top DO    

4 3 3 3
4+1=5    3+2=5   3+3=6  3+4=7   Top + 1/3 tied Bottom DO
4+2=6    3+3=6   3+4=7  3+1=4   Top + 1/3 tied Bottom DO 

4 4 3 2
4+1=5    4+2=6   3+3=6  2+4=6   2/2 tied Top DO 

4 3 3 2
4+1=5    3+2=5   3+3=6  2+4=6   Top + 1/2 tied 2nd DO 
4+1=5    3+4=7   3+2=5  2+3=5   Top + 1/2 tied 2nd DO
4+2=6    3+1=4   3+3=6  2+4=6   Top + 1/2 tied 2nd DO

4 3 2 2
4+1=5    3+2=5   2+3=5  2+4=6   Top + 2nd DO

It's still anybody's game though

All the permutations are here

Vivacious Lady

05-12-2009

Of course, it could be argued that a tie would benefit producers in that it would demonstrate that they had reformed the voting system is such a way to give more weight to the paid audience vote.

So if that happens we would have another good conspiracy theory to add to the million others.

soapgirlhere

05-12-2009

My prediction of tonight:

Scores
1) Ali & Brian = 4
2) Ricky & Natalie = 3
3) Laila & Anton = 2
4) Chris & Ola = 1

Public Vote (This is harder to predict but here goes...)
1) Chris & Ola = 4
2) Ali & Brian = 3
3) Laila & Anton = 2
1) Ricky & Natalie = 1

So Over all
1) Ali & Brian = 7
2) Chris & Ola = 5
3) Laila & Anton = 4
= Ricky & Natalie = 4

So Ricky & Laila in DO, Laila leaving.

I am probably completely wrong. And I for one hope Laila is amazing tonight and proves she can dance latin well.

TylerTango

05-12-2009

I honestly think Ali will be crap tonight. She's got two dances that require a really strong and engaging performance. Maybe I'm wrong.. but meh.

Technophiles

05-12-2009

Originally Posted by TylerTango:
“I honestly think Ali will be crap tonight. She's got two dances that require a really strong and engaging performance. Maybe I'm wrong.. but meh.”

I think she'll still score higher than Chris and Laila though, but will be eliminated over Ricky in the dance-off.

TylerTango

05-12-2009

I think Laila's American Smooth has the potential to be the best Ballroom dance of the night apart from MAYBE Ricky's. Even Brian complimented it...

MARTYM8

05-12-2009

Originally Posted by Technophiles:
“No. If in an Ali/Chris/Ricky semi-final, the public vote runs exactly opposite to the judges' scores then Chris will go through.
”

Yes - but how are Chris fans supposed to control who finishes second or third. They cannot - so Chris voters won't be able to save Chris even if he wins 99% of the vote as he cannot avoid the dance of!

Bruce and Tess should really be honest next week and say if you want to save Chris vote for him but make sure you also vote for the person second in the judges vote so you end up with a 3 way tie and Chris makes the final because he has topped the public vote.:yawn:

Too complicated for words - let's just have a 100% public vote!

Bonnie96

05-12-2009

Well it's official then - the leaderboard has to be reversed for both Laila and Chris to go through - a real shame because I thought the AS had the potential to be mind blowing - but at least we'll find out the way the public are voting.

Still clutching at straws but Tess repeated more than usual about 1 couple definitely going home.......?

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