Based on the footage of what we have seen throughout the week and on ITT tonight - can posters post their predictions of what the judges leaderbaord is going to look like - and the scores they think- realistically that each couple will get for each dance tomorrow

Ricky
Chris
Ali

What scores for each dance

I honestly have no idea. Can't even guess!

I predict there will be a point or two between Chris & Ali though.

We havn't seen much at all of Ricky or Ali's dances. The spin has been that Ricky has something good but we havn't seen much of it. The Ali spin has been the old stuff that she needs to get over her nerves and shyness. We havn't actually seen her dance full on, we don't know if she has already solved the problem or can and they wouldn't show her lifts even if they showed the rest. She has the dances with potentially the most wow factor but we havn't seen any wow bits. Ricky has more recognisable music for his AT so will the bloke deciding the music decide again?

If the judges continue along those lines of spin regardless of the dances Ricky will top the board. If Ali isn't strikingly better they can claim that anyway. If Ricky gets lost or Ali pulls out the two dances on the night with most wow the judges will probably follow. Chris regardless of what he does will have to be made to look as if he belongs so he probably won't be that far behind unless they don't care any more.

Not sure what the judges feel about Ricky or Ali. Its embarassing if your best male dancer ever doesn't make the final but more so if he loses to Chris and their marks are ignored. Ali beating Ricky even if he has more marks also sends out a negative message about the judges. Len is pro bloke but easily upset, Bruno finds both failing to meet his expectations, Craig likes difficulty and performance but penalises errors and which way the female judges go depends who gets what right and what Alesha thinks of first.

ATs I think will go:
Ali
Ricky
Chris

The other dance will go:
Ricky
Ali
Chris

I can't decide whether Ali or Ricky will top the leaderboard overall, but I think there will only be one or two marks in it. And I think Ricky will go home...

Hi Footygirl havent seen you for a while.

I think this is going to be a fascinating one and so much less stressfull knowing that what will be will be and the judges really have very little say.

Ricky should do well at both his dances but ofcourse he can be unpredictable with mistakes. However the judges know that he isnt winning the popularity contest and are likely to want to given him as mush help as they can so put him at the top.

I just dont think Ali has a smouldering passionate AT in her and really its time she was marked down on this....her AS is likely to be very good so ok and good dances means second.

I think Chris might dance the best he ever has......I loved his Rumba in week 1 and I cant see why it would be any different and I hope the AT will be fab despite the dodgy music. Even if he dances really really well I expect him to get fewer marks than the other two

So Ricky/Ali/Chris with the voting going in reverse order and them all on 4s so Ricky goes home.

good analysis Jan. I agree, although at this stage I cant see Ricky making mistakes

I had another think about this and I think nerves are going to play a big part tonight. Chris has nothing to be nervous about, not because he thinks he has got it in the bag but because he has got nothing to loose, he never expected to be here at this stage anything else is a bonus. Ali suffers with nerves anyway so I can see her being worse tonight.

If that's the case Ali could go home

i agree with this to an extent, Chris said on ITT that he almost doesn't get nervous anymore, he just enjoys it, especially as there is a good chance it could be his last dance. I still think the order will be Ricky/Ali/Chris though. I can see it being like last week, Ricky was 9 points clear of Ali in the end.

I reckon the judges will vote

Ricky
Ali
Chris

but what the outcome of the popular vote will be will decide it. If as seems likely Chris gets the highest share of the popular vote, then he's likely to get through to the final. If the voting public decide that he's been great but now it's time for the best dancers to compete, then he'll be out.

Here some the 40s! Oh, 50s!

ATs
Cola 38 or 39
Ali (an overmarked) 47
Ricky 45

Waltz Ricky 49 or 50
AS Ali 50
Rumba Chris 43

Combined
Ali 97
Ricky 94
Chris 82

BUT Chris could get some higher scores than I predict because the judges won't want it to look as if their least favourite by some margin may win with the public and thus make them seem fools since they are so evidently unappreciative!

I love Cola so I'd happily give them extra marks for performance and put them top of any leaderboard but IRL they will be bottom.

I'd guess that Ricky will top the leaderboard because they judges have a history of giving the waltz full marks unless the dancers really mess up and the AT will be full of tricks. My gut instinct as well is that the judges and the show are (unwillingly) willing to lose Ali to keep Ricky, if they have to choose.

I don't think the judges care that much about public opinion - Lisa was not as popular as other people they saved her over and they didn't care. They tend to blame the public rather than try and fit in with them, imo. I think Chris will be the lowest unless one of the others has a crisis.

(I think it will be interesting to see if Chris is not nervous tonight - up until tonight he's had nothing to lose but after last week he is clearly favourite according to the media. He'd be made of very strong stuff indeed if he could ignore all that's been said this week. I wouldn't blame him if nerves did get to him with 2 tough dances. To me it's Ricky who's got nothing to lose and could finally maybe show us some fire.)

Barring a miracle or a complete dance disarster by Ali, the judges will have

Ricky 3
Ali 2
Chris 1

and the public will vote

Chris 3 +1 =4
Ali 2 + 2= 4
Ricky 1 +3 = 4

And Ricky will leave on the basis of the least public vote

overall I think

Ricky
Ali
Chris

No clue who'll be out tonight though. I guess Ricky, unless his support has suddenly grown.

Not 100% sure on the top two, i imagine it will be a close call between Ali & Ricky for top spot, with Chris scoring lowest with the judges.

[quote=jtnorth;37231505]
I don't think the judges care that much about public opinion - Lisa was not as popular as other people they saved her over and they didn't care. They tend to blame the public rather than try and fit in with them, imo.
/QUOTE]

I don't believe the judges should try and second guess what the public will think. The whole point of having judges is to get a different perspective on the dancers from the one the public has. If the judges just score/vote based on what they think the public wants, they may as well not be there.

As to the OPs original question, not sure of the points, although I think we may well see Ricky and Ali scoring in the high 40s for both dances with Chris scoring in the mid 40s. I think the judges scores will be fairly close, but with the couples separated by a few points to reflect who they think was best and worst. By this stage the judges don't need to score anyone very low because it makes no difference what the points gap is, so I think they will probably leave the 1-6 (probably 7 too except for Craig!) paddles at home.
I think, like lots of other people, it will be
Ricky
Ali
Chris
on the judges leaderboard and the public will turn that round with Ricky to go.
As Natalie Cassidy said "I think it'll be Ricky, but I don't want it to be".

Ricky
Ali
Chris

Same is its always been in the judges scores, why should tonight be any different?