Been looking at how ITV's Christmas Day shows which go up against EastEnders do compared to their usual series ratings (officials):

2006- Doc Martin had 5.9m on Xmas Day. The series earlier in the year averaged 8.7m. So the loss was 32%.

2006- TV Burp had 3.7m on Xmas Day. The series earlier in the year averaged 5.0m. So the loss was 26%.

2007- Dancing on Ice had 5.7m on Xmas Day. The series earlier in the year averaged 8.9m. So the loss was 36%.

Roughly, the programmes have lost about 30%. Earlier this year, the series of Mr & Mrs averaged 4.7m. Using the ~30% rule, the estimate for Xmas Day would be 3.3m. Bear in mind that these are the officials, so the overnight figure could be <3m.

Mr and Mrs isn't even that popular, and the 4.7m average from earlier this year is inflated by that big rating it had on BGT night. Without that, the average would have been 4.4m. Also, it tends to rate worse after 8pm based on past ratings. It was a poor choice from ITV to put it on Christmas Day. I know they don't want to put the effort in, but they still could have chosen something more popular which is also cheap!

Merry Christmas everyone!

I only stayed with VW for the full hour because it was VW. No doubt others will also, but casual viewers won't have. I still think a large audience will have tuned in at 9pm for this and it's a question of how many stayed with it & for how long.

I think low 6m's is best she can hope for, but could be less if the ratings really fell off a cliff. Where would they go though? It was a poor night's viewing, would people want to endure the misery of Taggart on Christmas Eve? And the other channels gave up.

Predictions:

EE 9.0m
My Family 5.1m
Victoria Wood 6.4m
QI 4.7m
Apollo 3.8m
Impressions 3.5m

Emmerdale 6.2m
Corrie 7.8m
Taggart 4.0m
Christmas with the Troops 1.8m

Not a great night in ratings (or, indeed, any) terms...

Do you think EastEnders will be over 10 million on xmas day? I'm predicting 9.5 tops. Surprised everyone has predicted so high in the ratings prediction game it only had 10m last year!

I was embarrassed by VW so I turned it off. Thank god that wasn't on xmas night it could've collapsed what should be a day of good entertainment and high ratings on the Nation's favourite channel!

It's as though ITV gave up for the hour. Emmerdale, Coronation Street and Poirot should do respectably (well, Poirot may just tip 4m), but what were they thinking with Mr. and Mrs???

I wish they had risked Ant and Dec's Christmas Show on the night itself. After the history of light entertainment on Christmas Day it would've been really interesting to see how it'd do.


I think you may be underestimating My Family and Victoria Wood. Poor they may have been, but I can see many people sticking with it simply because they wanted something light hearted on Christmas Eve. I think My Family'll do well especially. May see a drop off at 8.30pm though, as people gave up and switched to watch Coronation Street.

It was against Dancing on Ice last year. This year it's Mr and Mrs. I think the opposition could decide it's final figures.

I've predicted 10.8m on the ratings game, which is quite a conservative prediction. I definitely could see it getting 11-12m considering it's up against poor competition.

But the Strictly lead-in won't be as good as previous years, when it's had Doctor Who and Wallace & Gromit before it. Also the 1 hour episodes are a bit of an unknown quantity. Will people tune in right from the start or the final few mins?

It really should be getting over 10m on Christmas Day, though. It had 9.7m just a couple of days ago!

I think it'll do well. Bigger storyline this year as well, plus weaker competition.

2004 and 2005 were both hour longs do you know how they rated?

What was the big Christmas storyline in EastEnders last year? I think I'm right in saying it was Mitchell-focused, but otherwise I'm blank...

Two years ago was Max/Stacey/Bradley which was a huge episode - and well done too IMO.

has it had a lot of promotion in the mags and papers because that is often a deciding factor? I don't buy them.

I know the bbc have a trailer but that only started airing a week ago as far as I know.

wasnt it the paternity test results in the xmas cracker. Bit shit really but I loved Suzy's little rant at the Mitchells.

It was the revelation that Jack had fathered Roxy's baby... not the most exciting of Christmases. Looks much better this year.

Ah right, thanks. Most people get a toy car in a cracker...

As it's now the day itself: Merry Christmas everyone.

Just looked on BARB... In 2004, it had 12.82m which was the most watched programme of the day. It was up against Midsomer Murders which had 6.9m (really good rating for ITV).

In 2005, EE had 10.60m once again the most watched programme. It was up against Booze Cruise which had 4.38m.

So, mixed results. Oddly, EE performed better against the stronger competition. I can't remember if the storyline was better in 2004 or not. But generally, it seems like nearly all 2005 Xmas Day ratings for BBC1 were down compared the year before.

I dunno what we can make of the hour long episodes from those ratings. Depends a lot on the storyline, I suppose.

EastEnders Christmas 2004 was when Dennis had to choose between Zoe and Sharon.

EastEnders Christmas 2005 was Alfie and Kat's happy departure after a will they/won't they moment.

Yes, Merry Christmas ratings geeks. Hope Santa gives you what you hope for (no, not a BARB box) xxx

From the reaction on DS, it looks like the BBC made an astute decision taking Victoria Wood off Christmas Day. It seems pretty obvious they were planning to air it on the big day with Gavin and Stacey / QI / Catherine Tate on Christmas Eve. Not sure if quality will effect ratings all too much, but I'm certainly not expecting more than 5.5m for My Family and 7m for Victoria Wood now.

Hope everyone on the Ratings Thread has a very Merry Christmas. See you all on the thread over the next couple of days as the family finally gets a little too much.

Hopefully I will be unwrapping a BARB supscribition worth nearly £7,000. Im sure Santa knows I have been a good boy this year.

Merry Christmas everyone - hope Santa is good to you all. Unfortunately for me, I don't think the big guy writes politics dissertation, so I'll have to make do with what I get.

I look forward to Boxing Day on here when Doctor Who gets an average of 18.3m

At this very moment, the following Christmas Eve shows are in the top 10 on IPlayer,

#1 EastEnders
#2 QI
#3 My Family
#4 Live At the Apollo

.... Victoria Wood nowhere to be seen in the top 10!

So with all the British television debate about Christmas, how fussed are our cousins across the pond? Well, this is what they are showing tomorrow night:

ABC
5.00 NBA Basketball
8.00 Pirates of the Carribbean: Dead Man's Chest
10.00 Local Programming
11.30 Nightline
12.00 Jimmy Kimmel Live

CBS
8.00 Ghost Whisperer
9.00 Medium
10.00 Numb3rs

I think they're all repeats

FOX
8.00 - 10.00 Til Death

NBC
8.00 NBC Specials: Saturday Night Live Presents - A Very Gilly Christmas
10.00 The Jay Leno Show
11.34 The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien

I shall never complain about the license fee ever again.

24.12.09

BBC ONE
Shrek 2 6.1m / 31.1%
Eastenders 8.1m / 34.3%
My Family 5.8m / 24.4%
Victoria Wood 6.8m / 29.%

ITV1
Emmerdale 5.8m / 24.9%
Corrie 7.8m / 31.1%
Taggart 4.1m / 17.4%

Five
A Christmas Carol 1.3m / 5.6%
Heads or Tails 0.6m / 3.1%

Thank you very much dubsj - Merry Christmas. Oh dear for Emmerdale! I fear for them tonight... Shrek 2 did well. Disappointing for EE and Coronation Street though, where were the viewers? Victoria Wood did well, Taggart did OK.

Victorian Farm on BBC Two @ 8pm: 2.7m / 11.4%

Eastenders on BBC THREE: 1.1m