DSRPG Christmas Forecast: Review

BBC:
15:00 The Queen (including ITV1) 8.4m
*actual 8.1m, difference -0.3m
15:10 The Incredibles 6.2m
*actual 5.1m, difference -1.1m
16:55 Shrek The Halls 5.9m
*actual 5.6m, difference -0.3m
17:30 The Gruffalo 7.5m
*actual 8.8m, difference +1.3m
18:00 Doctor Who 12.5m
*actual 10.0m, difference -2.5m
19:00 Strictly Come Dancing Christmas Special 8.2m
*actual 6.8m, difference -1.4m
20:00 EastEnders 11.7m
*actual 10.9m, difference -0.8m
21:00 The Royle Family 9.6m
*actual 10.2m, difference +0.6m
22:00 Gavin and Stacey 7.5m
*actual 9.2m, difference +1.7m
22:30 Catherine Tate 6.6m
*actual 7.1m, difference +0.5m

ITV:
15:00 HM The Queen (including BBC One) 8.4m
*actual 8.1m, difference -0.3m
15:10 You’ve Been Framed at Christmas! 3.2m
*actual 2.6m, difference -0.6m
15:40 Happy Feet 3.8m
*actual 3.4m, difference -0.4m
18:00 Emmerdale 5.0m
*actual 5.2m, difference +0.2m
19:00 Coronation Street 8.0m
*actual 7.9m, difference -0.1m
20:00 All Star Mr and Mrs 4.0m
*actual 2.9m, difference -1.1m
21:00 Poirot 4.6m
*actual 3.7m, difference -0.9m

So, using this data we can see that the biggest disappointment was Doctor Who, 2.5m down on expectations.

The most impressive performance came from Gavin and Stacey, which pulled in nearly 2m extra viewers than expected.

Overall most shows underperformed compared to the panel's expectations. Accuracy was better for ITV shows compared to the BBC, especially the soaps which our predictors managed to get within 200k range on both occasions.

The Queen's speech (-0.3) was also closely in line with expectations across the two channels, as were Happy Feet (-0.4) and Shrek The Halls. (-0.3)

Well done to all our members.

Ah yes, forgot about Susan Boyle ! Emmerdale at 21 is a bit of a surprise, I would've expected it in the Top 20 at the start of the year.


01 - 18.29m - BRITAIN’S GOT TALENT (30/05/09) - ITV1
02 - 16.28m - THE X FACTOR (13/12/09) - ITV1
03 - 11.46m - CORONATION STREET (02/02/09) - ITV1
04 - 11.31m - DANCING ON ICE (22/03/09) - ITV1
05 - 11.05m - EASTENDERS (02/02/09) - BBC1
06 - 10.86m - I’M A CELEBRITY - GET ME OUT OF HERE! (21/11/09) - ITV1
07 - 10.79m - I DREAMED A DREAM - THE SUSAN BOYLE STORY (13/12/09) - ITV1
08 - 10.40m - STRICTLY COME DANCING (19/12/09) - BBC1*** Overnight
09 - 10.28m - DOC MARTIN (08/11/09) - ITV1
10 - 10.20m - THE ROYLE FAMILY (25/12/09) - BBC1 *** Overnight

11 - 10.08m - CHILDREN IN NEED 2009 (20/11/09) - BBC1
12 - 10.00m - DOCTOR WHO (25/12/09) - BBC1 *** Overnight
13 - 9.91m - JONATHAN CREEK (01/01/09) - BBC1
14 - 9.84m - COMIC RELIEF (13/03/09) - BBC1
15 - 9.76m - THE APPRENTICE (03/06/09) - BBC1
16 - 9.26m - WHITECHAPEL (02/02/09) - ITV1
17 - 9.20m - GAVIN & STACEY (25/12/09) - BBC1 *** Overnight
18 - 9.20m - KILIMANJARO: THE BIG RED NOSE CLIMB (12/03/09) - BBC1
19 - 8.80m - THE ROYAL VARIETY PERFORMANCE 2009 (16/12/09) - ITV1*** Overnight
20 - 8.80m - THE GRUFFALO (25/12/09) - BBC1 *** Overnight

Note: Duplicates removed, and corrected EastEnders rating used.

Biggest shock of the night is Gavin and Stacey. Didn't expect it to hold on to so much of its lead-in.

Pretty average night compared to previous years though. No stand-out rating like previously.

Thanks for this.

From this summary, I see I did a bit better in the RPG than I thought I had when I first saw the overnights. Phew.

So, looks like the year will finish 11-9 to BBC1, although it could be 10-10 if Ant & Dec's Christmas Show enters and knocks-out Gruffalo rather than RVS once the final numbers are in.

In terms of particular days and their respective number of entries:

Christmas Day (so called non-event) - 4
2nd February (Snow Day) - 3

Also rans:

13th December (final of the TXF final)- 2
30th May (BGT final/Cup Final/ITV's "Christmas Day") - 1

Comments, George?

Since you ask & thank you for doing so, these charts are not what tv is about in the real world. They are anorak rules (one-off specials & snow days count the same as a 15 week series of 2 hour shows, things with the same name in the title only appear once, etc, etc). This might be fine as a parlour game (to substitute for lack of fresh, interesting and fun family viewing for people over 10) for Christmas night, but dont expect tv execs to abandon business logic to win your league table.

Its the same as all these fantasy tv schedules really. In a world with no budgets, no PSB requirements, no actor or particpant constraints, where scripts always were perfect of course we could have David Jason reading the Anglia News live on Christmas night, but I doubt it will ever come to pass

The HD overnight rating for Doctor Who last night was 343,000, so a total audience of about 10.3m. Other HD ratings from yesterday:

The Queen: 117,000
The Gruffalo: 249,000
The Royle Family: 143,000
Gavin & Stacey: 125,000

DW and The Royle Family were pretty much equal in terms of total viewers.

Impressive numbers for The Royle Family and Gavin & Stacey. A bit surprised at Doctor Who, was expecting somwhere 11.5-12m and the Christmas Strictly !!!!

Tks. Rather a good "add-on" for the Gruffalo. Pedantically speaking, do these get added to the other overnights in your "top 20"s?

K

I don't think the BBC nor BARB add the HD figures onto the BBC1 ratings.

Personally, I wouldn't mind doing so. But I don't have the HD overnights to some of those other BBC programmes, such as Jonathan Creek, Wimbledon, Strictly, etc. So I think it's best to leave them out, otherwise there'd be a list with some programmes including HD, some without HD and it would be too confusing!

Excellent afternoon and night for BBC One, although, as Agent F pointed out, the shine was taken off by not having a stand out rating, like last year's W and G. The church service predictably bogged up the morning ratings, though.

Poor for Mr and Mrs, especially to be beaten by the annual screening of the "Turkey Dinner" Dad's Army episode. And Poirot was wrong for Christmas night. People don't want a pedestrian, labyrinthine detective drama for two hours on Christmas night, especially if it's one that's been out on DVD for a year.

Doctor Who down on my expectations. It was okay, but John Simm's hammy performance really put me off.

Great performance from BBC One's comedy triple bill, though. I loved The Royle Family special. So much better than last year's, I thought, and no needlessly sad Sheba-esque bits, either.

Interesting stat from DS report:


K

Ant & Dec will not get 9m. 6m would be good.

Xmas day all day share for ITV up, BBC down, despite ITV's post 20:00 performance... guess they will be pleased with that.

Based on the breakdown, here are the shares for the channels between 17:00-22:45 yesterday and in brackets are the shares for Christmas Day 2008:

BBC1: 39.1% (43.3%)
BBC2: 6.5% (5.5%)
ITV1: 19.8% (20.8%)
Channel 4: 2.9% (3.6%)
Five: 2.9% (2.3%)
Multichannel: 28.9% (24.5%)

A comfortable win for BBC1, like usual. But both of the main channels were down last night compared to last year. BBC2 and Five were up. Multichannel saw the biggest growth, up by over 4 share points!

Also Digital Spy mentions:

Last year, the All Day shares were: BBC1- 34.2% and ITV1- 16.9%. So while the gap between the pair is still big, ITV did improve overall this year.

To put it simply I think we have a lot of snobs around when it comes to ITV, but there is a catch-22 going on with ITV putting in minimal effort meaning they get minimal, if any, reward.

Next year I'd like to see ITV go for an entirely entertainment based line up, but not many of their formats are too suitable for Christmas Day - even hits like The X Factor and Britain's Got Talent, as unlike Strictly you can't really have a new competition involving ex-contestants, and a showcase probably wouldn't appeal either. Look at Susan Boyle for example - two weeks ago it got 10m or so - if they'd aired it last night, it would have been lucky to get half of that.


The only way I could see ITV rivalling the BBC is by pushing an ad-free Christmas, perhaps with an exclusive sponsor for the day. The reality is though unless such sponsor completely bankrolls the days programming, ITV as a business will make more money from less than 5m watching shows with ads than more than 10m watching shows without ads.

Doctor Who Confidential must have done well.

EastEnders on the 19th of Feb will Get really high figures as it will be promoted well and there will be a big buzz around it.
There is lots of Big shows over xmas but the 19th Feb will just be EastEnders.I think Enders will have a higher new years day with their double bill and also the return of the jacksons will give them a high figure.

Surprised at Dr who but they will have their big rating next week

BBC Three
19:00 - Doctor Who Confidential: 576,000 (2.5%)
20:00 - Top Of The Pops: 266,000 (1.2%)
21:00 - FILM: Billy Elliot: 627,000 (2.8%)
22:45 - Shrek the Halls: 290,000 (1.5%)
23:15 - Family Guy: 310,000 (2.1%)
23:35 - Family Guy: 645,800 (5.5%)
00:00 - EastEnders: 490,000 (6.3%)
01:00 - Gavin and Stacey: 230,000 (4.6%)

BBC News
09:00 - BBC News: 220,000 (3.0%)
09:30 - Review 2009: The Year in Politics: 280,000 (3.4%)
10:00 - BBC News: 250,000 (2.8%)
18:30 - Review 2009: The Year in Sport: 220,000 (1.0%)
22:00 - BBC News at Ten: 350,000 (1.6%)

ITV2
09:40 - The Xtra Factor: Best and Worst 2009 (Part 2): 330,000 (3.7%)
10:40 - The Xtra Factor: Best and Worst 2009 (Part 3): 340,000 (3.4%)
11:40 - The Xtra Factor: Best and Worst 2009 (Part 4): 350,000 (3.3%)
12:40 - The Xtra Factor: Best and Worst 2009 (Part 5): 280,000 (2.6%)
13:40 - The Xtra Factor: Winner's Story '09: 220,000 (2.0%)
15:40 - Coronation Street: 210,000 (1.4%)
16:10 - Emmerdale: 250,000 (1.6%)
16:40 - Creature Comforts: 260,000 (1.6%)
16:55 - FILM: About a Boy: 270,000 (1.3%)
19:00 - FILM: National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation: 415,700 (1.8%)
21:00 - FILM: Love Actually: 625,500 (3%)
23:40 - Coronation Street: 377,000 (4%) and 52,000 (1%)
00:40 - Emmerdale: 182,000 (3.5%) and 55,000 (1.8%)

ITV3
11:00 - FILM: Pollyanna: 240,000 (2.3%)
13:40 - FILM: Carry On Cruising: 240,000 (1.9%)
15:30 - FILM: Carry On Cowboy: 320,000 (2.0%)
17:25 - FILM: On The Buses: 407,800 (1.9%)
21:00 - FILM: Holiday On The Buses: 464,100 (2.1%)
22:50 - The Best of Benny Hill: 340,000 (2.6%)

ITV4
21:00 - FILM: Mercury Rising: 360,000 (1.7%)

E4
22:45 - The Inbetweeners: 220,000 (1.2%)

Film4
12:35 - FILM: Porridge: 280,000 (2.6%)
21:00 - FILM: Elf: 350,000 (1.6%)
22:50 - FILM: Final Destination 3: 350,000 (2.7%)

Five USA
21:00 - FILM: Christmas with the Kranks: 210,000 (1%)

Dave
17:00 - Top Gear: 210,000 (1.2%)
22:00 - QI XL: 310,000 (1.4%)
23:00 - QI XL: 240,000 (1.7%)

G.O.L.D.
11:05 - Wallace and Gromit: A Grand Day Out: 230,000 (2.2%)
11:40 - Wallace and Gromit: The Wrong Trousers: 240,000 (2.4%)
12:15 - Wallace and Gromit: A Close Shave: 250,000 (2.4%)
14:00 - Only Fools and Horses: 270,000 (2.2%)
15:20 - Only Fools and Horses: 340,000 (2.2%)
16:40 - Only Fools And Horses: 395,900 (2.2%)
18:00 - Only Fools and Horses: 300,000 (1.3%)

I wonder if numbers would have been different had Who and Enders been paired (both being dramas) and Strictly aired at 6?

I think it'd have worked better in hindsight

though I think the Strictly Christmas special is finished unless they make some big changes to re-vitalize the main series. This years competition had the least interest its ever had (largely due to the lack of big name stars) and I think the disappointing rating for the Xmas Special reflected that.

Pretty good there for Family Guy, especially at that time of night.

According to DS EastEnders peak was 11.93m (49.6%.

If i was BBC id have taken SCD out of xmas day and put it on tonight.

Id have gone for A filmor comedy then Dr who at 7 and EastEnders at 8pm.

I'm not so sure it will as it's still same old, same old, just like last night's murder in the Queen Vic.


And although we don't have the answers for ITV1, I'd definately like to see the BBC freshen up their Christmas Day schedule next year, beginning by dropping Strictly. I wonder too whether a Doctor Who special has been commissioned yet or whether they'll wait and see how it goes down in the Spring.

Added a whole load of multichannel ratings (about 50) to my above post.

Or in the place of Victoria Wood's bland christmas eve effort.