Sorry to quote your post selectively, but I've got to dash off to work in a sec....
Originally Posted by Anorax:
“I find it hilarious to read that people thought 3G was going to be an amazing smash overnight and that they are now surprised that it hasn't been.”
My view is more that, because of the auction system that caused the telecoms companies to spend billions on licences instead of investment, it has not been as much of a success as it might otherwise have been. (I'm not
quite as cynical as nobbynolan in believing that
none of that licence money would have gone into investing in 3G.)
Quote:
“I also find it hilarious to read that people think 3G is going to "flop" and we are going to carry on using 15-year old technology (2G). You need to accept the fact that the consumer isn't driving the market, the industries are.”
It's a two-way street. The industries won't act alone if it's going to lose them lots of money. The market is more of a donkey than an automobile, and doesn't always go the way industry might want it to.
Quote:
“10 years ago there will have been a whole pile of people clutching their heavy 1G phones saying "What do I want one of those digital things for? I can do all I need to do on my analogue phone! Roaming? What use is that to me? I dont want to make calls when I'm on holiday! Text messages? What the bugger are they all about! 5p to send 160 letters? It's almost cheaper to write a letter!"”
I'm not so sure. There was a whole pile of people asking why they got so much "hiss" on a phone call, and not much later they were worried about their phone getting cloned. Okay, I didn't get a phone until 1997, but IIRC cloning was already known about then, and there was no question of my getting an analogue phone.
Quote:
“It will take time. But it will happen! I'll tell you one thing for free; you will not have a 2G phone in 7 years. Maybe even 4!”
Unless they're planning on shutting down the 2G transmitters, I'll be surprised. 3G coverage is still patchy and the telecoms companies are too broke to achieve anything like the coverage of 2G in seven years, let alone four. My belief is that many customers will skip 3G altogether, and go on to whatever comes after that.