I think if its Kieron and Danny in the skate off, they will save Danny. Most of the judges just don't seem to like Kieron's skating - they undermark him every week - so I don't see them saving him over Danny. Whether Kieron will survive to week 5 will all depend on how many votes he can get from the public, really - the judges won't do anything to help him.
Presuming that Hayley and Mikey are immune from a skate-off this week (which they almost certainly are), and Daniella will get a rebound vote, I see Gary, Danny and Kieron as all being at serious risk.
Gary has the advantage of being signed up for the tour though, so he will probably get yet another late slot. And obviously the judges fairly consistently overmark him - that's unlikely to change. So he's probably more likely to escape the bottom two than either of the others.