Kieron might have a chance if he gets to the final, but if he's in the bottom two at all before then, I think he'll go, because he doesn't have the support of the judges. It'll depend on the public support for him up to the final, and while he might be topping the DS poll (and being bottom in the 'anti' DS poll) at the moment, as we all know that doesn't normally reflect the real world (sadly!)
Hayley I suspect won't have enough public support to win, especially once the 'anti' votes start to come into play. She'll make the final though.
Mikey could well win if he makes the final - it depends whether his fans are dedicated enough to continue vote for him, and vote for him multiple times. I don't think he'll get much support outside his existing fanbase though, but they might well be enough.
Gary doesn't exite enough people to win. He might make the final though, with the judges / producers support.
Danny doesn't seem to have much of a fanbase, so the only way he could get somewhere is if he continues to improve dramatically. Still don't see him finalling, let alone winning.
Daniella could win. If it comes down to her and Hayley, she surely will. But clearly this week demonstrated she's not a dead cert by any means. The fact that she's not on the tour means the show won't be doing her many favours, I suspect.
I'd
love it if Kieron and Brianne could win

, but I still think probably the most likely is Mikey.