Originally Posted by Score:
“The reason why people have been upping their predictions is simple, as I don't think anyone expected Five to be pushing it so much. It's been very heavily advertised, more than anything I can remember on Five (more than FlashForward) and therefore 2.5m seems a perfectly reasonable number to expect of it. If you want to lower your expectations so that you can lavish praise all over it whatever it gets tomorrow morning then feel free to, but if it is below 2m then soemthing has gone wrong.”
FlashForward had a very similar marketing campaign across other TV channels, billboards, the internet, etc. But it's far easier to draw in viewers for imported drama.
As for me, I'm not lowering my expectations at all. I've been consistent all week in saying that anything above 1.5m would make this a success. I stand by that. And I will only "lavish praise" as you put it if I feel its justified.
Originally Posted by Score:
“It will appeal to a totally different audience to ITV's much older skewing dramas and it has a half hour head start on them. Nothing else on against it can be classed as significant competition for it. It will also have a ~2m lead in (Nemo will probably peak at above 2m by the end but lets be conservative) so a drop from its movie lead in would be poor considering the amount of hype it's had.”
Corrie is always significant competition. Admittedly it doesn't and never will match the younger more attractive viewer profile of EastEnders, but it's still fairly broad in the audience it attracts as one of the most popular shows in the country and therefore has the potential to hurt DSB whilst it is on.
Nemo will rate well but again you can't compare how well movies rate on Five compared to everything else. Movies, sport, factual ent and US drama are examples of areas in which Five already secures big audiences on a regular basis. The same cannot be said for light entertainment. So although it would be lovely if it was to build on its lead-in, it's largely irrelevant. Nemo won't be there to prop it up next week anyway.
Originally Posted by Score:
“The reason why the two reality shows you've mentioned only debuted with 1.2m is because they were crap and unoriginal, and it was obvious from the marketing, which is the complete opposite of DSB's marketing which makes it look fun and fresh.”
With respect, that is your opinion. In the industry Back To Reality was regarded as a well made programme, and its under performance was put down to the fact that it started just a week after I'm a Celebrity had finished. The same can't be said about The Farm, which was much less popular with viewers and critics alike. However it did develop something of a cult following.