Does anyone know whether any of housemates birthdays are during BB??? Hope so lots of booze 
Any HM's have a birthday while theyre in the house?
Quick calculation shows that for 10 weeks it would be evens money if there were just 4 in the house. With 12 in the house I think the odds are 0.084 (about 25:2 against).
I think, also, the chances of 12 people sharing the exact same birthday are about 5:1 against.
I think, also, the chances of 12 people sharing the exact same birthday are about 5:1 against.
Originally Posted by klunk:
“About a 1 in 14 chance of it happening, I make it. Unlikely, but not that unlikely.”
“About a 1 in 14 chance of it happening, I make it. Unlikely, but not that unlikely.”
The odds of two people sharing the same birthday in a group of 23 people is 50/50, apparently. Not sure about the odds of 12 people not having a birthday in a 10 week period, though. Sorry
71 days in the house, so the probability of any housemate having a birthday during that period is 71/365. And the probability of them not having a birthday is 294/365.
Multiply that by itself twelve times for the twelve housemates and you get...
417030640378345864542952820736/5591320323850160818242431640625
...or, 0.075 to three decimal places. A 7.5% chance then. About 1 in 13.4, if you prefer.
Of course, this doesn't take into account leap years, but I think it's probably close enough...
Multiply that by itself twelve times for the twelve housemates and you get...
417030640378345864542952820736/5591320323850160818242431640625
...or, 0.075 to three decimal places. A 7.5% chance then. About 1 in 13.4, if you prefer.
Of course, this doesn't take into account leap years, but I think it's probably close enough...
Originally Posted by Mister Al:
“71 days in the house, so the probability of any housemate having a birthday during that period is 71/365. And the probability of them not having a birthday is 294/365.
Multiply that by itself twelve times for the twelve housemates and you get...
417030640378345864542952820736/5591320323850160818242431640625
...or, 0.075 to three decimal places. A 7.5% chance then. About 1 in 13.4, if you prefer.
Of course, this doesn't take into account leap years, but I think it's probably close enough...”
“71 days in the house, so the probability of any housemate having a birthday during that period is 71/365. And the probability of them not having a birthday is 294/365.
Multiply that by itself twelve times for the twelve housemates and you get...
417030640378345864542952820736/5591320323850160818242431640625
...or, 0.075 to three decimal places. A 7.5% chance then. About 1 in 13.4, if you prefer.
Of course, this doesn't take into account leap years, but I think it's probably close enough...”
It does make a slight difference if you include leap years. Just change the lower commen denominator to 365.25
Therefore the chances of no HM's having a birthday in the house reduces to 7.4%
Pedantic .... moi ?
Originally Posted by afcbfan:
“The odds of two people sharing the same birthday in a group of 23 people is 50/50, apparently. Not sure about the odds of 12 people not having a birthday in a 10 week period, though. Sorry”
“The odds of two people sharing the same birthday in a group of 23 people is 50/50, apparently. Not sure about the odds of 12 people not having a birthday in a 10 week period, though. Sorry
”
Actually the chances of two people in a room full of 23 people sharing the same birthday is 51%, therefore more than 50:50
The chances of the big brother housemates sharing the same birthday (12 people) is approx 18% or close enough to 1 in 5
Originally Posted by Exocet:
“The chances of the big brother housemates sharing the same birthday (12 people) is approx 18% or close enough to 1 in 5”
“The chances of the big brother housemates sharing the same birthday (12 people) is approx 18% or close enough to 1 in 5”
Actually, the chances of twelve people all sharing the same birthday is 1 in 5591320323850160818242431640625.
Maybe you meant the chances of two people out of twelve sharing a birthday, in which case the chances are (again assuming a 365 day year)...
102344010566252155325086877/612747432750702555423828125
...or 16.7%. Much closer to 1 in 6 than to 1 in 5.
I'll out-pedant the lot of you!
(Oh, and Carol who? Didn't she only get a Third or something...?)
Originally Posted by Mister Al:
“Actually, the chances of twelve people all sharing the same birthday is 1 in 5591320323850160818242431640625.
Maybe you meant the chances of two people out of twelve sharing a birthday, in which case the chances are (again assuming a 365 day year)...
102344010566252155325086877/612747432750702555423828125
...or 16.7%. Much closer to 1 in 6 than to 1 in 5.
I'll out-pedant the lot of you!
(Oh, and Carol who? Didn't she only get a Third or something...?)”
“Actually, the chances of twelve people all sharing the same birthday is 1 in 5591320323850160818242431640625.
Maybe you meant the chances of two people out of twelve sharing a birthday, in which case the chances are (again assuming a 365 day year)...
102344010566252155325086877/612747432750702555423828125
...or 16.7%. Much closer to 1 in 6 than to 1 in 5.
I'll out-pedant the lot of you!
(Oh, and Carol who? Didn't she only get a Third or something...?)”
Yes that's what I meant ... remind me not to play Black Jack against you - I bet your a cardcounter
If you're going to start nitpicking, what about the fact that birthdays are not evenly distributed throughout the year? I'll expect a new calculation, taking this into account, on my desk first thing Monday morning 
.
.
Originally Posted by klunk:
“If you're going to start nitpicking, what about the fact that birthdays are not evenly distributed throughout the year? I'll expect a new calculation, taking this into account, on my desk first thing Monday morning.”
“If you're going to start nitpicking, what about the fact that birthdays are not evenly distributed throughout the year? I'll expect a new calculation, taking this into account, on my desk first thing Monday morning
.”
Excellent pedantry skills there, Klunk. You have my respect.
Originally Posted by klunk:
“If you're going to start nitpicking, what about the fact that birthdays are not evenly distributed throughout the year? I'll expect a new calculation, taking this into account, on my desk first thing Monday morning.”
“If you're going to start nitpicking, what about the fact that birthdays are not evenly distributed throughout the year? I'll expect a new calculation, taking this into account, on my desk first thing Monday morning
.”
The best figures I could get were Average Daily Birth Frequencies in the United States, 1978-1987
Month Daily Frequency
January .0026123
February .0026785
March .0026838
April .0026426
May .0026702
June .0027424
July .0028655
August .0028954
September .0029407
October .0027705
November .0026842
December .0026864
The month-to-month variation of births is sufficiently small that match probabilities barely change from those calculated by assuming a uniform distribution. I cannot see any reason UK births would have much varience from their U.S. counterparts
References:
Diaconis, P., and F. Mosteller. 1989. Methods for studying coincidences. Journal of the American Statistical Association 84(December)
Source:
http://www.maa.org/mathland/mathtrek_11_23_98.html
