Originally Posted by rzt:
“Yeah, BBC1's Autumn is looking excellent. From the first week of October, they'll probably have Spooks (5m), Single Father (5m), The Apprentice (7m), Have I Got News For You (5m) and New Tricks (7m) occupying the weeknight 9pm slots simultaneously. That sort of schedule is very strong and they'll be dominating the 9pm slots. A stark contrast to last Autumn when they didn't get 5m+ between September and November at 9pm very often. Seems like ITV won't be having a good Autumn, especially compared to last year: the Monday dramas not rating as well as last year, Tuesday ratings are down, Wednesday night football will be dented by Apprentice, L&O not performing too well and PoG getting a couple million less than Benidorm which had the slot last Autumn. The late-November/early-December period when IAC is on air and Corrie's 50th Anniversary will be their only good period I think.
As for L&O, I wouldn't call it a 'big hitter'. I see ITV's 'big-hitter' dramas as: Doc Martin, Wild at Heart, Lewis and Foyle's War. Those 4 are capable of 7m+. L&O was more like a 5-6m performer which has now lost some of its audience in its new slot.”
Compare ITV's 9pm audiences to the same week last year:
2009
Blue Murder: 4.5m (19.6%)
The Fixer: 3.2m (13.7%)
Champions League: 4.3m (20.3%)
The Bill: 3.5m (16%)
Rebus (R): 3.0m (12.6%)
Average: 3.7m (16.4%)
2010
Bouquet of Barbed Wire: 4.5m (18.1%)
71 Degrees North: 3.0m (12.7%)
Champions League: 3.8m (17.3%)
Law and Order UK: 4.0m (17.5%)
Paul O'Grady Live: 3.5m (15.7%)
Average: 3.8m (16.3%)
So really their ratings at 9pm are almost identical to last year overall atm so I think they're Autumn will be fine. Bouquet's ratings have been almost identical to Blue Murder's first 2 episodes last year and whilst it will be down on Monday it only has one episode left and I think DCI Banks will do better as it's a more familiar theme. It's also a pilot so if it does well it'll be back for more, so they could end up with a new returning series. Then they'll have Whitechapel and whilst it won't do as well as last year it should still get 6-7m. The Little House seems like a 5m+ thing too.
The Fixer's ratings were pretty similar to what 71 Degrees got on Tuesday but 71 Degrees must be cheaper and has more potential to grow (I think it may go up to around 3.2-3.5m next week as some viewers may have been caught out by the new day). Football shouldn't be affected too badly by The Apprentice as it has a large head start, although the post-match analysis will probably be hit hard.
Law and Order is an interesting one: it did pretty well last week but was hit hard by the football on Thursday. I suspect The Road To Coronation Street also knocked a couple of hundred thousand off it. Looking at the fixtures, Liverpool have two more Europa League matches on days when Law and Order is due to air but they are away and have earlier kick-offs so shouldn't clash with it. I can't see any of the other teams getting anywhere near those ratings at this stage so ITV will be relieved at that. Established shows, especially ones with individual stories like Law and Order don't just lose 20% of their audience in a week for no good reason. I think it'll bounce back to high 4s/low 5s next week, and will probably stay there except for the episode that clashes with New Tricks (3-3.5m) but I doubt ITV will take too much notice of that rating. In terms of its overall future, I guess the ratings for this series (or half a series, but as ITV are calling each half series a new series we may as well do the same) don't matter too much as they've got another 3 commissioned, so it's set to run until Spring 2012 already, and unless its ratings become embarrassing ITV are hardly likely to pull the plug on filming at this stage.
As they make it in 13 episode blocks it probably lessens the cost per episode, so it may not be as expensive as other ITV dramas, so 4.5-5m is probably enough to keep ITV relatively happy. They won't have been impressed with Thursday's rating but as long as it bounces back to high 4s/low 5s they'll probably keep it in that slot, but if it sticks at the level it was at on Thursday they'll either move it back to Monday or try a new night (Friday might work as other crime dramas have done well there). People have compared it to dramas like Blue Murder, Wire In The Blood and Heartbeat but those were all old titles that were dropping each series and I think they wanted a bit of a creative renewal. I don't think that all of those dramas should have been axed (Wire In The Blood was worth keeping) but I can see why Law and Order would be viewed slightly differently to those axed dramas. Also Trial and Retribution wasn't axed, ITV wanted more but La Plante wanted to focus on Above Suspicion.
When assessing ITV's drama slate I think it's important to use the number of hours per year not the number of episodes, as they air 8 new hours of Lewis per year, so surely its just as valuable as an 8x60 series? Same with Foyle's War (6 hours) and Midsomer, which on Wednesday will have aired 14 hours this year, with at least another 2 to come after that, so it isn't quite as bad as you made out yesterday (but still pretty poor!).
All eyes will be on Downton Abbey next Sunday though: I suspect it's their most important Autumn programme and possibly one of their most important all year. If it does well, it'll really boost their drama slate as it's a returnable series, but if it flops, it'll be very ugly...
Paul O'Grady is doing OK, 3.5m is reasonable enough for what it is and it'd probably be pushing 4m if it wasn't against New Tricks, so it may do better in the Spring. I do agree that BBC1 will have a very good Autumn this year, although putting Single Father in the Sunday slot may not be the greatest idea if Downton Abbey becomes a hit. Other than that, they're looking in great shape this Autumn although wasting George Gently in that stupid slot seems like a really bad move.
and nothing else in primetime managing 1m. New Tricks has really hit The Mentalist, because I guess there were a lot of casual viewers, as it is a repeat. Can't see the repeats holding out much longer now and I can see film repeats airing there in a couple of weeks. Otherwise it's going to be a long 8 more weeks for FIVE.
