Originally Posted by Score:
“Compare ITV's 9pm audiences to the same week last year:
...
So really their ratings at 9pm are almost identical to last year overall atm so I think they're Autumn will be fine.”
I suppose you're right that the weeknight 9pm ratings for last week were similar to last year. But I think the year-on-year gap will increase from October onwards as ITV had a pretty good October schedule last year - even 7 Days on the Breadline did well for Tuesday standards and I dont think 71dN will match that. Fridays will probably see the biggest year-on-year drop but then again I guess Fridays early next year will experience a boost due to Benidorm's return. Also Bushmills makes a good point that there will be no Liverpool Champions League matches. They'll have to show Arsenal/Chelsea matches which rarely get 4m+ for group matches.
Quote:
“Law and Order is an interesting one: it did pretty well last week but was hit hard by the football on Thursday. I suspect The Road To Coronation Street also knocked a couple of hundred thousand off it. Looking at the fixtures, Liverpool have two more Europa League matches on days when Law and Order is due to air but they are away and have earlier kick-offs so shouldn't clash with it. I can't see any of the other teams getting anywhere near those ratings at this stage so ITV will be relieved at that. Established shows, especially ones with individual stories like Law and Order don't just lose 20% of their audience in a week for no good reason. I think it'll bounce back to high 4s/low 5s next week, and will probably stay there except for the episode that clashes with New Tricks (3-3.5m) but I doubt ITV will take too much notice of that rating. In terms of its overall future, I guess the ratings for this series (or half a series, but as ITV are calling each half series a new series we may as well do the same) don't matter too much as they've got another 3 commissioned, so it's set to run until Spring 2012 already, and unless its ratings become embarrassing ITV are hardly likely to pull the plug on filming at this stage.
As they make it in 13 episode blocks it probably lessens the cost per episode, so it may not be as expensive as other ITV dramas, so 4.5-5m is probably enough to keep ITV relatively happy. They won't have been impressed with Thursday's rating but as long as it bounces back to high 4s/low 5s they'll probably keep it in that slot, but if it sticks at the level it was at on Thursday they'll either move it back to Monday or try a new night (Friday might work as other crime dramas have done well there).”
The thing which surprised me the most about L&OUK's rating was that it was beaten by The Young Ones. If it had managed 4m and won its slot, with BBC1 getting a low rating too, then I would've accepted that the football dented everything etc. It might be the case that last week's 5m was a series high and all remaining weeks will rate in the low 4's regardless of competition. I guess we'll have to see what happens next week - it ought to rise by at least 0.5m given the competition.
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“When assessing ITV's drama slate I think it's important to use the number of hours per year not the number of episodes, as they air 8 new hours of Lewis per year, so surely its just as valuable as an 8x60 series? Same with Foyle's War (6 hours) and Midsomer, which on Wednesday will have aired 14 hours this year, with at least another 2 to come after that, so it isn't quite as bad as you made out yesterday (but still pretty poor!).”
In terms of Sunday night dramas, I definitely agree that ITV is pretty strong. In terms of no. of hours, Wild at Heart, Lewis, Foyle's War, Doc Martin, Poirot/Marple amount to ~35 hours per year (although Doc Martin is bi-annual). Compare that with BBC's ~25 hours for Sherlock, Lark Rise to Candleford, Wallander, Inspector George Gently. Factor in the Saturday dramas (DW, Merlin, Primeval) and overall for the weekend, the BBC and ITV are pretty similar.
But when it comes to weeknight drama series, there's a larger gap between the two broadcasters. ITV has Law & Order UK, Midsomer Murders, Whitechapel, Above Suspicion (about 35 hours per year altogether), whereas on BBC1 there's Hustle, Spooks, Silent Witness, New Tricks, Waking the Dead, Torchwood which are capable of 5m+ (50+ hours).
ITV could do with one or two more returnable series on weeknights. I know they've been trying to find new dramas and it hasn't really worked out for them in the last 5 years but that's why I think they should've kept one or two of the dramas they've cancelled and axed them
after they'd found the new successful dramas to replace them. What they did is axe the middle-ground dramas which got about 5m in the hope of finding new hits which would get better ratings but that hasn't happened. They're now in a situation where they still have the big hitters but there are very few 'middle-ground' dramas.
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“All eyes will be on Downton Abbey next Sunday though: I suspect it's their most important Autumn programme and possibly one of their most important all year. If it does well, it'll really boost their drama slate as it's a returnable series, but if it flops, it'll be very ugly...”
There was an article on MG saying that they're hoping for 5m+ for the whole series, upmarket audiences and critical acclaim for Downton Abbey for it to return. I'm not sure how this'll rate because ITV don't really do period dramas much but it's got a really good slot and has been promoted a lot on-screen. I'll have to wait and see how Joe Maddisons War does tomorrow because if that struggles to get 5m then I won't be expecting DA to post a particularly big launch audence.
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“I do agree that BBC1 will have a very good Autumn this year, although putting Single Father in the Sunday slot may not be the greatest idea if Downton Abbey becomes a hit. Other than that, they're looking in great shape this Autumn although wasting George Gently in that stupid slot seems like a really bad move.”
I think Single Father will be taking the Tuesday slot. Just a guess based on what weve 'heard so far that it's starting in the first week of October which means it can't air on Sundays since George Gently will be there. I dont think they're wasting George Gently because how many of its viewers really watch The X Factor? Even if it drops to 4m, the repeats rate so well (close to 4m most of the time) that it probably doesn't matter that much if its first airing ratings drop.