I hope we get some breakdowns for the Breakfast battle on Monday morning, because something says Daybreak could flop badly.

You know people don't like Daybreak when you get people on the Daily Mail comments section saying they're going to defect to BBC Breakfast.

I'll see what Daybreak's like though for the first day or two, but it'll be interesting to see the amount of people that hop from ITV to BBC on Monday, or vice versa.

Digital Spy has updated with a few more ratings: http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/news/...grabs-45m.html

A few more ratings from DS:

BBC1: The One Show: 3.39m (18.6%)

BBC2:
Natural World: 1.52m (8%)
Have I Got Old News For You: 1.71m (8.5%)

ITV1: Tonight: Community Dis-service: 2.84m (14.3%)

C5: Escape From Alcatraz: 510k (2.6%)

BBC3:
Edinburgh Comedy Fest: 872k (4%)
EastEnders: 969k (4.8%)
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Bit low for The One Show. Usually over 20% on Thursdays due to EE following it. I think Natural World on BBC2 might've took away some of its viewers because last week BBC2 only had 3% in that slot.

Daybreak's ratings have to increase on GMTV surely?

They are wiping out the 8:30am hour which doesn't do much ratings wise.

For that reason alone I can't see it flopping. It simply has to go up. If it doesn't, it's a disaster.

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Dan.
How will the final Big Brother, Peggy's EastEnders exit and the return of New Tricks rate? Submit your predictions now. >>

Quite low rating for the second day on the trot. Maybe the Blair doc had little to do with it after all.

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Dan.
How will the final Big Brother, Peggy's EastEnders exit and the return of New Tricks rate? Submit your predictions now. >>

Daybreak can be a success just as easily as it can flop. The issue isn't how it performs in the next week or so, its how its performing in 6 months time that matters and whether another relaunch is required, as is common practice with new breakfast shows. But for every viewer that leaves ITV1 for BBC1 or Sky News, there will be a viewer to replace them through curiosity to see how the new show does.

I think anything above 800,000 on Monday will be a fair success but if people are going to base it on whether its ahead of BBC1 or not then its just a waste of time and you might as well declare it a flop now. It isn't going to go ahead of BBC1 for quite some time, if at all.

I could envisage something of a "tie" on Monday. It's got the curiosity factor going for it and the shorter runtime as well. After that, I would expect Breakfast to take the lead again but I wouldn't expect the gap to be much wider than about 200-300k most mornings.

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Dan.
How will the final Big Brother, Peggy's EastEnders exit and the return of New Tricks rate? Submit your predictions now. >>

Can't wait for Daybreak. ITV will probably cut to a Tic-Tac ad just as Adrian is about to say "hello".

For reference purposes, the yearly averages for the two morning shows this year have been:

BBC Breakfast: 1.45m (34.01%)
GMTV: 875,200 (20.52%)

Source: Broadcast

It's difficult to say what exactly would be considered an immediate success for Daybreak as we don't really get to see the morning ratings much, and let's not forget Daybreak (without Lorraine) will be an hour shorter than GMTV and that should be taken into account. It should begin with 21% at the very least on Monday IMO. Ideally more around the 25% mark due to the promotion it's been given, curiosity factor and the fact the average won't include 8.30-9.25am which is usually a lower-rating period. As Desert Rat mentions, however, they'll be paying more attention to the long-term ratings (maybe in 6 months time) than how the first week or two pans out.

Too true, and I can see where you're coming from...


...but if they're not going to test it out next week, then are they going to test it out at all?

19.00 Emmerdale 5.9m 32.5%


19.30 Eastenders 7.4m 37.3%

http://mediatel.co.uk/newsline/2010/...the-peak-slot/

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On the issue of Daybreak, no judgement can be really made in the first week. The hyped return of ITV news at Ten had 3.5m, a figure it has rarely gotten over since then.

Viewing habits change over time. 5 years ago when GMTV was on top, would you have predicted that in 5 years time, GMTV will be getting half the audience of BBC Breakfast? BBC Breakfast is moving to Salford next year and its likely that some of the main presenters won't be moving with it. As we've seen with GMTV, if you don't get the presenting line up right then the consequences can be catastrophic with viewers jumping ship.

I think Daybreak will at least retain 90%+ of the GMTV audience despite what people are writing on the internet about how they'll boycott. From the press information, it seems it will have the same feel to GMTV but a more modern and professional version. GMTV was too stuck in the 90s and it never moved forward with the times. The sofa is still there, the view of London is still there (albeit this time its real), the reporters will be very much the same and most importantly, there will still be a focus on news, sport, entertainment and lifestyle. I hope there is more emphasis on news and sport with entertainment and lifestyle coming secondary as they're the main focus of Lorraines show.

I did say that but I got shouted down!

Regarding DAYBREAK the success metric will be if it can win back the female audience under 45 NOT the gross audience figures. God's Waiting Room is always going to be tuned to BBC1 in the mornings. Its the desertion of the younger female audience that lead to GMTVs axing. I know this is too subtle a point for the "look at the size of my number" posters but it needs to be made all the same.

ITV's controller of daytime says that they need to be building Daybreak's audience beyond just the core Housewives with Kids:

yes but they need to win back what they lost first before anything else. The ad money follows the h/w with children.

Yeah, but this is the ratings thread, not the demographics thread.

If it's the right demographics that count, how come Married, Single, Other got axed after one series? Wasn't its audience in the coveted 16-24 age group relatively static for the whole run?

Alison said st the press launch her ambition was also to be number 1 in the slot.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2010...tv-as-daybreak

Thats because of £. Cost per viewer and all that. But this is a "look at the size of my big number" thread not a thread about money or demographics

No George you just picked on The One show as usual:yawn:

Why didn't you bother to look at the ITV News at Ten. Is that it's usual performance.

thought you were ignoring me? your not doing too well so far!

TOS is being hyped by the BBC so its fair to comment on the effects of their massive PR blitz.

News at Ten ratings on a slow news day and with a poor lead in isn't news particularly.

George caught making it up as he goes along again!

Well, yes - normally the bigger numbers get the bigger attention. Besides, we never normally get demographic numbers in here, apart from the drama and soap numbers.

Can anyone tell me on average how GMTV and BBC Breakfast does? ... Just so I know what to compare it too once the ratings come in Tuesday morning for Daybreak .

Look up (or down).

God knows how I miss things like that ......

Cheers D.M.N

well up to a few weeks before it's axe The Bill was going to be recommissioned according to George because of it's great 16-34 audience.