I'd go for Matt. As I said on another thread, he fits the profile perfectly. The only way he won't win is by being a complete dancing numpty or he doesn't get on with his partner. We'll see but I doubt either will be the case.
Jimi could be a dark horse if he doesn't come across as irritating. Who knows about Gavin, but he could be good for the 'J' word.
The women don't really stand a chance. As series 3 onwards show, the men seem to be more popular (I'm not going over the Gethin/Alesha thing again but he was likely polling more votes than Alesha). I think it's just the make up of the watching audience and I can't see it changing. One of Tina, Kara or Patsy will become the new Ali/Lisa (good dancer but disliked by most). Michelle could be the best hope if she gets along with her partner, who, if the spoilers are to be believed, doesn't have the easiest reputation (and I like him for it

)
Of course this is all just my opinion and I could be totally wrong