I don't think Paul or Ann will be out first despite being at the bottom of the leaderboard. Ann was just so entertaining, and I thought Paul wasn't as woeful as I was expecting - at least he danced on time! Ola is very popular after last year, and judging by the amount of twitter followers Paul has, he's not unpopular either. Ola's foxtrot choreography was very clever last year, and if she can reproduce that, they'll stay in.
I think the danger zone at the minute is Goldie, Peter, Patsy, Felicity and Michelle.
Out of those, I think Felicity will be ok because she has the Foxtrot next week. I'm not so convinced that Michelle and Brendan are capable of a good enough Foxtrot to get them high enough up the leaderboard. Same with Goldie, and I don't know where either of their votes will come from.
Patsy got so nervous in a ballroom dance where she was almost always in hold, and couldn't recover when she made a mistake, so I fear her salsa won't be good. And I don't think Peter will do a great salsa either, but he may have enough voters behind him to keep him safe, and I hope Erin doesn't go out first week.
I'm also slightly unsure about Tina. Jared's choreography was criticised for the cha cha, so he has to raise his level considerably to come up with an acceptable Foxtrot. And that goes for his dancing as well as his choreography. The voting will be taking place while the X Factor is on air, so all their potential voters may well be distracted and not vote...