Now that the contest has been up and running for three weeks I feel that I can predict that the winner will come from Scott, Matt, Pamela or Kara, barring a freak result courtesy of the GBP vote - I'd almost put my house on it. Felicity Kendal might be the one outsider to upset this but doesn't look good enough and doesn't seem to be as popular as one might have expected.

Anybody disagree ?

I think they're by far the four best dancers and one of them will win it, but I still feel that it's early and we could have some shocks along the way.

I can see that....

I am hoping both Jimi and Gavin will up their game and come storming into that 4 and knock out a couple.

It's far too early to be sure of this, particularly given the number of mid-carders with potential and/or those with strong public support who could upset the voting system.

Jimi and Gavin would be the two for me who've got most potential to drag in a few more votes as they improve the things that are lacking in them at present. And Tina's got class in spades on the dancefloor - a great routine could catapult her up the voters' lists. The obvious fly in the dance ointment is Ann, who could get an awfully long way without ever seeing the bottom two.

Conversely, can we be sure of the levels of support for those near the top of the board? I don't know how far Kara's fanbase extends, or Pamela's - one 'meh' dance could kill them off before their prime.

Dodgy judges' marking, too, could see people considered favourites put in a dangerous position as the numbers dwindle. Every single judge has given at least one mark so far that I'd consider to be a total aberration. A 7 rather than an 8 based purely on personal preference could mean the points difference between staying and going.

Probably the winner will come from one of them but I dont think that all those 4 will be the final four.

I completly agree with you. I would also have to say that to a certain degree some of those four might have peaked too early (IMO Matt who was my favourite) and Pamela seems to be like Marmite (at least on this forum, so I have no idea how her support is - any more mentions of Psychology and Billy might be her downfall). Kara and Artem look beautiful, dance beautiful, but IMO there is always something amiss, and I don't know what. Interestingly enough out of the four, I probably now prefer Scott, who I didn't like at the start. He seems to be still improving.

I have a weird feeling about people like Tina and Gavin (not so much about Jimmy, his Charleston training looks just weird).

Well, it's nice to have four serious contenders rather than one favourite at this stage and that may mean that the audience doesn't lose interest in them, like it can if there is one clear front runner. I mean, saying it's one of four couples is still pretty open - I could say I think I'd bet my house it will be one of the twelve couples still in. If the final was tomorrow I think Pamela would win it, as she's so good and it's so unexpected that she's good. But anything can happen, it's really early days. There are a few other people who could improve or bond really well with their partners and those factors really matter as well.

With there being no dance off we could be in for a shock...

Jimi I think stands a chance if he can up his game a bit

Yup, can't shake my hunch about Gavin either, and I'm rapidly going off poor old Jimi.

I don't think Matt's peaked too early; I think it's more just a question of him finding a dance that'll please the judges whole-heartedly, which is more down to Aliona doing a Fortuna and relaxing her standards (and convincing Matt to do the same - he's very driven). Once they've got the great marks they deserve, I'm sure he'll relax and the rest of the series will be a breeze. *Crosses fingers*.

Nobody has made the final since series 2 without scoring at least a 30 in one of their ifrst two dances. If this carries on, you can narrow down the finallists to three out of Scott, Kara, Pamela, Matt and Jimi. The only person who might have foiled this was Gethin, but I can't see anyone with the same amount of "hunk factor" to pull it off.

As for a winner I think it's a straight race between Matt and Pamela. Don't think anyone else is Middle-England enough to do it.

I went to check that on Wiki as I was sure Chris hadn't, only to find that of course querying Monkseal was the wrong thing to do

Maybe that's it. I enjoyed his first dance immensely, and I do like him (watched him on Blue Peter and everything else), but I wasn't very taken with their Foxtrot (those hands), but their Quickstep was really good in places. I just think that our expectations with regards to him are very high. I think he has the potential to blow us away, but so far it only happened in the first dance for me. Fingers crossed though. They could be outstanding!

Gavin is strange, I was prepared to dislike him (and I don't fancy him either), but both him and Katya seem to have a quiet determination to improve his dancing and I think he could be the real surprise of the show (plus the journey aspect). I thought I would love Jimmy, but I must admit I'm going off him as well.

What about Scott? Why do you think he won't make it (serious question)?

LDM, we are the same person. Fact

I'll take that as a compliment.

Generally top male comes down to, in terms of the edit, nice humble, clean-cut, middle-class, "bring home to your mother" guy (Colin, Mark, Gethin,Tom, Chris) vs cocky, petulant, back-chatting, rebel , bit of rough, "snog behind the bike sheds mid-fag" bad boy (Gough, Matt, Matt, Austin, Ricky). In all those cases apart from Gough, if you go by public vote, the "nice guy" wins (in my opinion obviously, no vote counts have ever been released, I'm just going on what looks to be true). I think this year, Matt's the nice guy, and Scott's the bad boy.

I also think Natalie might be a bit of a handicap vote-wise, although you'll never get me to say it on record.

Ooh, I reckon the Dawson/Ramps battle was the other way round, actually - Ramps would've been my behind-the-bike-sheds candidate for sure. Mind you, the fact he was a miles better dancer might've had something to do with his success.

EDIT: and I think that clean-cut Gethin lost out to Cockernee rebel Matt, which is a second case in your above cases that doesn't work out.

Interesting theory, never thought about it that way. Don't forget tough, Scott has a dead nan and a father, that should count for something.

Your secret about Natalie is safe with me, and I agree. I'm rather starting to liker her this year though.

I definitely think Mark was the nice guy - shy, reserved, asking the audience very politely if he could have another go when their salsa went wrong. Matt was insulting the judges dress-sense, constantly making fun of the whole show on It Takes Two (and since) and generally acting up. I think that was actually probably the neatest example.

Re : Matt and Gethin, as I said it's just a matter of personal perception, but I think Gethin consistantly got higher public votes than Matt (who was bottom 2 quite early on) and probably did when he went out as well, suffering death by dance-off where in this series he'd make the final. As I said, just a hunch based on what we do know.

Re Scott/Matt Would just like to say that I didnt like Scott at first....I described him to my friends as too much of the East End wide boy type for my taste and wasnt sure about him from his first VT's but each week he has grown on me and I like him now........add to that a good dancer and a pro that coreographs great dances and I think he might just be in with a shout.

But equally I think he has to up his game or he's gone quite soon. Pre show I had him down as a favourite, but both Matt and Scott are quite away ahead in ballroom and latin already - Jimi's got start putting together some performances very soon and get himself noticed or he's in big danger of being gone before half way.

Scott has played his dead nan card far too early - where can he go from here?

Isn't the lesson from SCD7 that you shouldn't be too obviously able at the beginning? Scott, Matt and Kara seem boringly good already - where's the fun in that? It's all a bit meh. Unless one of them has a meltdown to add some tension that leaves Jimi, Gavin, Pamela, even Tina - some good potential there for emotional drama.

The best dancer doesn't always (ever?) win as we know by now.

In recent series I've taken to asking my friends and family who watch Strictly who they support to get an idea of who is popular (my radar is usually way off and I go for the least popular ) and usually it comes out pretty accurate. Matt is way ahead if they're anything to go by...

Hmm. That'd be the first and only time I'd seen Matt Dawson as anything other than the ultimate take-home-to-the-parents type.

I'd forgotten Gethin was ditched in a dance-off, so I'll give you that, but I think we can put the battle of the sportsmen down to ultimate talent rather than argue over who was the nicest of the nice boys

EDIT: Actually, hang on - Gethin was ditched in a dance-off after the public saved Matt. Plot thickens