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This weeks Survation Report, Good for Matt & Rebecca, not so Mary


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Old 30-10-2010, 10:32
Queen Maeve
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http://www.scribd.com/doc/40470296/X...Week-4-Preview


Mary Byrne has lost considerable support after her performance last week. She’s now unfortunately a candidate that may not make the final unless she can mount a “turnaround” performance tonight.

Rebecca Ferguson has considerably impressed the public with her performance last week. She’s gone from 10.7% in the favourite act question to 19.7%

Matt Cardle’s support is building consistently each week. He is now up to 44.8% from 36% last week
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Old 30-10-2010, 10:34
ardwark
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You can see quite clearly in the index above
No you can't quite clearly see anything. It looks like a plate of multi coloured spaghetti.
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Old 30-10-2010, 10:36
Verence
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Well, people are starting to realise that Mary is a one-trick pony
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Old 30-10-2010, 10:39
ardwark
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Clip clop Clip clop
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Old 30-10-2010, 11:01
BBKrayzee
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Well, people are starting to realise that Mary is a one-trick pony
Lot of judge's criticism too - that never goes down well..
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Old 30-10-2010, 12:30
dwiseman
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Sample size is just too small to be very representative really.
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Old 30-10-2010, 14:42
The Poll Mole
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Sample size is just too small to be very representative really.
Last week the sample size was over 500. They didn't send this week's poll until later on. I suspect the sample size will around 1000 in a couple of weeks.. Their Big Brother were about 1500 responders and X Factor has what, 4x the viewers?
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Old 30-10-2010, 14:57
Woowho
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Matt is way ahead at the min, and likely to win at this stage. Not keen on his song choice this week though. Even if he does it well.

But, If they are doing the songs as suggested...

Although I can't see Mary going this week, she is going to diminish rapidly with COULD IT BE MAGIC, even if she sings it well. Such a wishy-washy song.

If Rebecca pulls off WICKED GAME, with her tone and making it her own, she's only going to go climb. I would be stunned if a song like that put her out this week, even if she messed it up!

Cher could actually be exciting to see how she is going to pull off a tough song as STAY.
Holy s--t!

Paijie could do well with BACK TO BLACK this week. That would have been the obvious safe one to have given Rebecca to have kept her in.

I'm really concerned for Trayc this week; her song choice is not my personal favourite to be honest. Maybe others like it? The two groups have lively songs, but are a bit wet.
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:16
meglosmurmurs
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I thought that last week they suddenly decided to only have a bottom 2 and not a bottom 3 to save someone in particular.
I wasn't here to read all the conspiracy theories, would have loved to though.
The producers know that anyone who is almost at the bottom of the voting at this stage will lose the public's confidence and faith as a contender to win. I thought they could have been saving Mary, or maybe Katie, or even Wagner
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:27
Eurostar
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Those percentages look highly suspect : at week 8 last year,the poll topper in the actual voting wasn't even getting close to 44%,never mind at week 3 (and there are still 11 acts left this year).

Matt definitely topped the poll last week,but it would have been with a much lower percentage.
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:29
Eurostar
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I thought that last week they suddenly decided to only have a bottom 2 and not a bottom 3 to save someone in particular.
I wasn't here to read all the conspiracy theories, would have loved to though.
The producers know that anyone who is almost at the bottom of the voting at this stage will lose the public's confidence and faith as a contender to win. I thought they could have been saving Mary, or maybe Katie, or even Wagner
My guess it was to save Belle Amie : others thought it was to save Katie or Cher

Definitely don't think it was Mary....the Daily Star claims she finished second in the voting last Saturday.
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:32
Pet Monkey
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Those percentages look highly suspect : at week 8 last year,the poll topper in the actual voting wasn't even getting close to 44%,never mind at week 3 (and there are still 11 acts left this year).

Matt definitely topped the poll last week,but it would have been with a much lower percentage.
One thing that the polls can't get right is that some folk multi vote, probably particularly for the younger acts like 1D and Cher. Unless polls factor in disposable income and credulousness, they're going to be inaccurate.
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:33
Woowho
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Those percentages look highly suspect : at week 8 last year,the poll topper in the actual voting wasn't even getting close to 44%,never mind at week 3 (and there are still 11 acts left this year).

Matt definitely topped the poll last week,but it would have been with a much lower percentage.
Matt is getting the most hype and word of mouth this year than any other contestant ever has. Does not neccesarily mean he will maintain it, especially once the number of contestants start dropping. If two of the top three drop out, he's got it in the bag. as I imagine their votes will go to him.

These are actually more in line and more consistent with a lot of polls, although we don't know the full picture and never will until the end of the competition.
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:36
Parneb
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No you can't quite clearly see anything. It looks like a plate of multi coloured spaghetti.

certainly does....too many red lines for different contestants.
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:37
Eurostar
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One thing that the polls can't get right is that some folk multi vote, probably particularly for the younger acts like 1D and Cher. Unless polls factor in disposable income and credulousness, they're going to be inaccurate.
The percentages look way too skewed here : Matt and Rebecca have 65% of the votes between them.There is not a chance in hell that is happening in the actual vote,not with 11 acts left in the competition.
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:40
wkdstepmother
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The percentages look way too skewed here : Matt and Rebecca have 65% of the votes between them.There is not a chance in hell that is happening in the actual vote,not with 11 acts left in the competition.
I agree with this - but I think the multi vote thing is true and alson I suspect many casual watchers like them without voting whereas the supporters of the younger ones are more active which I thnk means Cher's vote in particular will be a lot higher than suggested here - she is way up on youtube hits for each weeks songs
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:43
Eurostar
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I agree with this - but I think the multi vote thing is true and alson I suspect many casual watchers like them without voting whereas the supporters of the younger ones are more active which I thnk means Cher's vote in particular will be a lot higher than suggested here - she is way up on youtube hits for each weeks songs
The multi voting and teen vote means that the percentages are more even : a poll topper at this stage of the competition is probably getting around 20% of the votes.
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:47
meglosmurmurs
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My guess it was to save Belle Amie : others thought it was to save Katie or Cher

Definitely don't think it was Mary....the Daily Star claims she finished second in the voting last Saturday.
lol Katie and Cher, the usual suspects.

wtf at Mary coming second. I'm not a Mary fan though, her previous performances have been good but overly-hyped, whereas last week she was just an empty shell going through the motions, to me anyway.
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Old 30-10-2010, 15:56
Pet Monkey
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The percentages look way too skewed here : Matt and Rebecca have 65% of the votes between them.There is not a chance in hell that is happening in the actual vote,not with 11 acts left in the competition.
If this were an entirely neutral field, you'd say that the 65% share out is unrealistic, but it's not. People are responding subjectively to a creative phenomenon so it could happen if there is a clear perception that Matt and Rebecca are the singers with most talent.

My complaint is that the actual XF voting system isn't fair or representative -- it's based on fanaticism and ability to pay, hence perhaps the Wagner effect.

This poll is inaccurate because it gains a truer record of respondents' opinions than the XF system.
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Old 30-10-2010, 16:01
Woowho
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lol Katie and Cher, the usual suspects.

wtf at Mary coming second. I'm not a Mary fan though, her previous performances have been good but overly-hyped, whereas last week she was just an empty shell going through the motions, to me anyway.
Interesting though the the ACTUAL star newspaper DID NOT officially report Mary was second in the polls; it was only tacked on onto some random post on the online site and has been given little credibility, more a stunt by Louis Walsh, who is affiliated with the Star in terms of publicity.

Not to mention "the leak" coming a few days after Louis foolishly blurted out he didn't think Mary could win, along with the comments from Simon and increasing internet opinion about the same old thing, which Danni had already been suggesting from week 2...
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Old 30-10-2010, 17:55
The Poll Mole
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Interesting though the the ACTUAL star newspaper DID NOT officially report Mary was second in the polls; it was only tacked on onto some random post on the online site and has been given little credibility, more a stunt by Louis Walsh, who is affiliated with the Star in terms of publicity.

Not to mention "the leak" coming a few days after Louis foolishly blurted out he didn't think Mary could win, along with the comments from Simon and increasing internet opinion about the same old thing, which Danni had already been suggesting from week 2...
That's a very interesting about Mary..
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