I think there are two competitions running parallel every year in SCD, the one between the people who are good from the beginning, usually with a mix of natural talent and some perceived experience, and the competition between the people who are not naturally as good but are seen as being brave to try. Some weeks we lose one from one camp, some weeks from the other, and generally at least one learner will make to at least the semis. It's because there are different groups of people with different priorities voting.
I think this year, with no dance off, there's one contest between Kara, Scott, Matt, Jimi and Pamela, and one between Ann, Gavin, Patsy, Michelle and Felicity. We could argue about Jimi and Pamela - if Jimi has massive improvement or Pamela is seen as being incredible for her age, maybe they'll come to look like learners in comparison to Scott, Kara and Matt. But at least one learner will usually go to at least the semis, especially now we've no dance off, and if you don't count Jimi and Pamela I think it could as easily be Ann as one of the others.
I'd call Ann more of a joke contestant than a learner, because I think she sets out to be funny rather than to be good. I think the programme are actively supporting her, which helps her chances a lot, and I think is very wise of the show and much better than the sneering way they treated John Sargent, Kate Garroway and others, which just makes a victim of the person. She may well go through to the final - I never understood why Julian beat Aled, still bitter - but my instinct is that the joke will wear off. I think it's the journeys that people get behind and I don't think Ann is a journey. (I may be misreading her vote because I'm not fond of her myself.) But if she got to the final, I really don't think she could in a million years win. I think the voting is different in the final and that Kara, Scott, Pamela or Matt are all easily likable enough to beat her.
Sorry for the long post. I'm sure there is a shorter way of saying all that!