Hello folks.

First of all, yes, it is a long post. You don't need to point that out to me, (I had to write the damn thing), and no-one's forcing you to read it. That said, it's long for a reason - I've worked out who's going to win Big Brother for you. Isn't that nice of me?

Yes, yes it is. Here's the big news - it's JASON.

Nah, only kidding. It's going to be Victor or Stuart. And the winner will be decided *this monday*, when Michelle walks into the Diary Room to cast her votes. Who wins? Michelle decides. Bear with me, this is quite complicated...

****WARNING - RAMPANT SPECULATION FOLLOWS****

NOMINATIONS 1 - THE BIG ONE.
This is how it works. Jason's in big trouble. Looks to me like the only possible way he can save himself is if the JCs go after Dan. Even then, they need to get Michelle to nominate Dan instead of Jason - I think Stuart, and particularly Victor, will succeed in doing this. In which case -
AH = Na, Da; DA = Ah, Ja; JA = Na, Da; MI = Da?, Ah; NA = Ah, Ja; SH = Ah, Ja; ST = Da, Na; VI = Da, Na.
NOMINATED - Nadia 4, Ahmed 4, Dan 5. -
BOOTED - DAN. Just. But both Ahmed and Nadia have strong supporters, as well as their (ahem) knockers - Dan's just boring, and not half as clever as he believes. Bye bye Mr. Hairdresser...

NOMINATIONS 2 - IF JASON SURVIVES, BEWARE THE JUNGLIST MASSIVE
Jason survives, and now we see the power of the block vote. This week's JC victim will be... Shell.
AH = Na, Sh; JA = Na, Sh; MI = Ah, Ja; NA = Ah, Ja; SH = Ah, Ja; ST = Na, Sh; VI = Na, Sh;
NOMINATED - Nadia and Shell, with 4 votes each. Guaranteed result for the JCs.
BOOTED - NADIA. Sorry, guys, I think Shell will edge this one, purely because the stress seems to be pushing Nadia over the edge, and she's got a mean streak to her that won't please the public. (We'll see plenty of that this week with no shopping budget). Shell will just get naked, on the other hand, and that should save her.

NOMINATIONS 3 - TOO MANY TIGERS, NOT ENOUGH PREY
6 left in the house, and it's crunch time for the JCs. Nadia's exit has left them with a problem - there's just Shell and Michelle left to pick off. What's a cat to do? The answer? Ahmed, Jason and Victor tell Stu they'll be voting for Shell, and then they go for the couple. And once again, they need to get Michelle to vote for Shell too - just like in "Nominations 1" (see above). If they pulled it off once, they'll do it again.
AH = Mi, St; JA = Mi, St; MI = Ah, Sh; SH = Ah, Ja; ST = Sh, Ja, VI = Mi, St
NOMINATED - Stuart and Michelle, with three each.
BOOTED - MICHELLE. Bunny boiler versus the cowboy.. it's going to be a close one, but I still fancy Stuart to win it. And if he wins this, he wins the cash, because he'll beat any of the remaining housemates.

NOMINATIONS 4 - HIGH NOON AT THE BB CORRAL.
The final nominations, and there's hardly any point tuning in. Will the 3 JCs turn on each other? It's hard to see it happening, as they'll see the two remaining HMs as a bigger threat than each other. No point even working out the individual votes - this one will be...
NOMINATED - Stuart (or Michelle), and Shell
BOOTED - If Stuart's still there, he'll go through, and win. If he isn't, it doesn't matter - Victor's already won.

So, there you have it - Victor is the only person who can defeat Stuart. And in order to do that, two things have to happen - Michelle has to nominate Dan instead of Jason this week, and the public have to boot Stuart instead of Michelle, when the Jungle Cats finally turn on Stuart (and if Jason, Ahmed and Victor are all there, they WILL turn on him eventually).

If Jason gets booted next Friday, then Victor is doomed. He'll never have the backing to split the gruesome twosome up, and Stuart will go on and win.

And what about Nadia? Well, this week will spell the end of her chances, I'm sure of it. As her nicotine withdrawals start to kick in, even the other smokers will tire of her constant whining about cigarettes (to say nothing of the scrounging), and she's guaranteed to be up for eviction every week. It's not impossible that she'll pull throng every time, and if she does, she's got every chance of winning, but I think the pressure of constant nomination (and *that* laugh) will spell doom for her.

So, Stuart to win. Unless Michelle ruins it for him by saving Jason's neck. I'm going to be placing some serious bets on Tuesday...

Interesting.... At this stage I have no doubt that Stu will win... have to wait and see how it will pan out though

A very well thought out piece. However, it seems it falls down early in that most polls have Dan polled on most sites as massively more popular than Ahmed.

I also think Victor is poised to turn on Jay very soon.

You theory falls down on at the first hurdle, based on your obvious dislike of Dan.

Sorry I've only scanned what you wrote.... but aren't you rather assuming that Becki is going to be evicted tonight.

If she isn't, then it puts paid to the theory?

Nice work anyway

brilliant, just wondering...how's ahmed going to be able to nominate when he's evicted...and wheres the double eviction?

well Cad, a lot of thought must have gone into the theory and I have no view on its probability- all I can say say is well done for posting what must have been a very exhausting message.

If Stuart wins I'm jumping off London Bridge!!!

In Arizona

Think I'll join yoy.

There may also be some more twist in how the housemates nominate or even if they nominate at all! I can foresee a double eviction week when all housemates are put up for the chop.

He He, Absolute piffle paffle!!!

Dan will go when faced with Ahmed and Nadia!!!!

hahahahaha

It's an interesting theory, but I have to agree it falls down on the Ahmed beating Dan in a vote. Much as I enjoy him in the house, the only 'full term' housemates I could see him guaranteed of beating in a vote are Jason or Shell. Whether or not you like Dan, he's massively popular, and at this point in time would, IMHO would be in serious danger of going out only if he came up against Stu or Nadia.

good theory, but imo stuart just doesn't have enough about him to make people want to vote for him to win. and as for victor, there's no way he can win.

i said from the beginining i thought dan would win, and i still feel it will be him, with nadia second and shell third.

Thanks, folks...

I don't particularly dislike Dan, but I don't exactly like him either. He's dull, and he's arrogant. I can't for the life of me work out what his appeal is.

As for the polls, I find that the best judge are the text messages on the live shows, because these tend to be sent by the same people who will vote and vote and vote and... for their favourites. Anyone can click a button on an internet site, and it's free. And I don't see a lot of support for Dan trom the TXTMSGers.

Still, like I say, it's all just rampant speculation.

Stuart is like Scott last year, expected to win but dosent have anyone to actually vote for him.

apart from a couple of million hormonal teenagers

TXTMSGers are quite an exclusive group of generally young/teen viewers. They don't reflect the opinions of the more *ahem* mature viewers (to whom Dan appeals).

well thre has to be a double eviction sometimes doesnt there to make it four in the final?

so cant see all your predictions happening but good post

It sure is just that :yawn:

nice post - must have taken you ages to write but ummm .. think there are waaaay too many implausible choices by the public in there ...... if you look at the bookies odds .... that would suggest ....

1. Ahmed versus Dan - sorry that would be bye bye Ahmed NOT Dan

2. Nadia versus Shell ..... Nadia wins if the current odds are correct

I think that once you change those variables ... anything could happen ... it seems it only takes a bad night or a nasty argument and everything changes anyway ..... so maybe it's too early to guess ...

I'd laugh like crazy if Victor won ... they'd have to widen the doors to his house - his head would never fit through a regulation opening again .... but Nadia or Michelle would still seem a good guess ... if Stu gets many more outfits he has to lose all the grown up votes .....

that's a thought could we anonymously donate a Spiderman outfit and then ask BB to take it away after a week ... that should clear the path for the winner a bit as Stu cries for the rest of the time inside ....

I see Vivtor's odds are falling even further - the bookies obviously read DS:BB

I got him at 9/1, yesterday; he's already 13/2. I posted on here that he was a great price when he was 25/1, and I'm covered with bruises having kicked myself around the living room for not backing him then.

Ah well, 9/1's better than a slap in the face with a haddock...

Nah. The more he gets, the more he makes us feel all protective in a "parenty", "aww bless " way,

Bookies odds are mainly determined by the amount of money being bet on each housemate, not by who they think are going to win.

wishful thinking more like.

Nadia to win, just got a feeling in me bones