Imo it's a 60 / 40 Cleverly win. He won the first fight, although since then he has lost a big fight against Kovalev which probably shook his confidence a lot. Bellew wants revenge, but gets too emotional at times, and in a boxing ring that can lead to costly mistakes.
The crowd will make for a great atmosphere, but I don't think the Liverpool crowd will all be with Bellew, and there'll be some Cleverly supporters there. He's a likeable character and Bellew sometimes acts in a way that causes people to want to see him get beat.
One question mark is Cleverly's heart. Tony Bellew has no problems there, and against Kovalev, Cleverly went into his shell and then seemed to give up. Having said that Kovalev is an elite level fighter, and in a different class to Bellew.
When Joe Calzaghe (one time stable mate of Cleverly) got hit hard, he'd come back at you like an out of control windmill, as Duke McKenzie once put it, and he never lost a fight. Cleverly needs some of that grit to win this one.
It's a probable Cleverly win imo on points, but only just.