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From fourth place to last - The Maths?
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Gill P
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by Three Left Feet:
“It's surprisingly easy...

There's 6 combinations with 3 couples (3*2*1)

24 with 4 (4*3*2*1)

120 with 5 (5*4*3*2*1)

etc.”

It might be easy for you but, despite my maths O-level, I cannot grasp this concept. I will let you do your great workings out and I'll will just nod and agree with you!
MissSunshine
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by VintageWhine:
“I've just seen my last post "in the flesh", so to speak, and it doesn't 'alf look daunting! (It's not, actually.)

Please tell me if I'm being boring (or if I'm being helpful, I suppose).”

daunted yes, bored no
Three Left Feet
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by VintageWhine:
“Well, you're absolutely right that placings are at the heart of the system, and, if you didn't have to combine a public vote with the judges placings there wouldn't be any need for "points".

But when there is a public vote to consider, you need to convert the judges' placings and the public placings into "points" in order to be able to aggregate them. And this would be totally straightforward, in the absence of tied judges' scores (you're right, the public vote is highly unlikely to yield a public tie - though the program-makers will no doubt (?!) have plans for this contingency).

Of course, all too often we do get tied judges'scores, so we need to know how to allocate points in a manner which is fair - and which preserves the power of the judges' scores.

I'll illustrate two possibilities using an extreme example. Suppose that on Saturday, nine of the ten couples got judges' scores of 30, and the other one got 16 (naming no names!). You could organise the judges' points as follows:

10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 1

or

10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 10, 9

Now, in the first example, the range of judges' points is the full 10, while the second example is 2. Don't forget that the points represent placings, so in the second example we've reduced the number of placings to 2. I hope you can recognise that this has reduced the power of the judges by a factor of 5, and the result of the aggregation of judges' and public scores will be almost totally biased in favour of the public. And all because of tied judges' scores.

Unfortunately, it is the second method which is currently being used (because it's a hangover from when there were dance-offs - but that's another story). They should be using the first method, of course.

I mentioned the DWTS methods, and these don't have the concept of placings, just using the judges' scores and public votes. This sounds great in principle, but only if the judges' marks are as widely differentiated as they should be (i.e. using the full range from 4 to 40). And of course, they're not, and this effectively ends up with reduced judges' influence over the end result, and so would be a recipe for disahster!

By the way, in the event of a tie after aggregating judges' and public points (i.e. placings), the public vote wins the day.”

I actually think the current system for ties is fair or at least less likely to be unfair than the old system.

Under the old system, the judges could doom anyone to the D-O simply by tying everyone else for first place. Although there's no D-O now, under the old system, if you end up with 1 point and everyone else get 10, then the only way to avoid the chop is to top the phone vote, which doesn't leave much chance if you're couple with 1 point. Thus, if the judges want to get rid of someone, they simply conspire to tie everyone else for first place.

Under the new system, the judges conspiring to tie multiple people simply gives the person at the bottom of the leaderboard more chance of survival, albeit at the expense of someone higher up more chance of getting the chop a la Jimi. So a "mass tie" favours the couple at the bottom of the pile, but if the judges want to favour them they can more easily just mark them higher.

I guess this logic breaks down if the judges want to both favour a couple (because they've been leant on) whilst being seen to be marking sensibly and having that couple at the bottom. I wonder which couple might fit this bill? Having said that, avoiding ties and then insulting the couple at the bottom is probably a better way to keep them safe whilst maintaining what passes for judicial integrity on SCD.
VintageWhine
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by Three Left Feet:
“I actually think the current system for ties is fair or at least less likely to be unfair than the old system.

Under the old system, the judges could doom anyone to the D-O simply by tying everyone else for first place. Although there's no D-O now, under the old system, if you end up with 1 point and everyone else get 10, then the only way to avoid the chop is to top the phone vote, which doesn't leave much chance if you're couple with 1 point. Thus, if the judges want to get rid of someone, they simply conspire to tie everyone else for first place.

Under the new system, the judges conspiring to tie multiple people simply gives the person at the bottom of the leaderboard more chance of survival, albeit at the expense of someone higher up more chance of getting the chop a la Jimi. So a "mass tie" favours the couple at the bottom of the pile, but if the judges want to favour them they can more easily just mark them higher.

I guess this logic breaks down if the judges want to both favour a couple (because they've been leant on) whilst being seen to be marking sensibly and having that couple at the bottom. I wonder which couple might fit this bill? Having said that, avoiding ties and then insulting the couple at the bottom is probably a better way to keep them safe whilst maintaining what passes for judicial integrity on SCD.”

Yes, it would indeed be hard luck on a couple who got 29 when all the others got 30, but I would hope that the public would see their predicament, and would indeed give them top vote (assuming they felt they didn't deserve to be ejected). But I agree, it has an element of "why bother vote" in it, though actually, if you think about it, as a voter you ought to cast 2 votes, 1 for the unfortunate couple and one for your favourite.

Obviously, I gave an extreme example which is very unlikely to crop up in practice, but the purpose was just to illustrate the fact that the judges' influence gets compressed when there are ties, and I don't think in general that's a good thing, because the weakest couples are rewarded at the expense of the best. Maybe the BBC would disagree, maybe they think they'll get more voting if the judges' points are compressed - I don't know.

One way to avoid all that would be to go to DWTS-style methods, but that really has problems (do you see the judges making use of the full 4-40 range?). As Len once said on ITT, he awards 1 point for turning up, another for being able to walk etc etc.

The fairest way of doing it, I suppose, would be to avoid any tied scores, but the only way of doing this, as I see it, would be for the judges to retrospectively separate the tied couples - which could in itself be very controversial.
VintageWhine
11-11-2010
Dr. Jan Itor (on another thread) has put forward the idea of using the original method, but averaging the scores for tied couples (in the interest of fairness) and I think it's a good one. But it also solves the above nightmare scenario, so instead of having

10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,1

you'd have

6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 1

so it wouldn't be a problem at all.

And the judges' influence won't be reduced at all if there's a clear "top" and clear "bottom", with all the tied scores in the middle, as is often the case.

So, the ideal method, in my opinion.
fondantfancy
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by VintageWhine:
“Dr. Jan Itor (on another thread) has put forward the idea of using the original method, but averaging the scores for tied couples (in the interest of fairness) and I think it's a good one. But it also solves the above nightmare scenario, so instead of having

10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,10,1

you'd have

6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 6, 1

so it wouldn't be a problem at all.

And the judges' influence won't be reduced at all if there's a clear "top" and clear "bottom", with all the tied scores in the middle, as is often the case.

So, the ideal method, in my opinion.”

That sounds good but imagine explaining it to the voting public.

Three Left Feet
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by fondantfancy:
“That sounds good but imagine explaining it to the voting public.

”

I reckon 25% would be fine whilst the remaining 4 out of 5 would struggle.
Three Left Feet
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by fondantfancy:
“That sounds good but imagine explaining it to the voting public.

”

I reckon 25% would be fine whilst the remaining 4 out of 5 would struggle.
jjackson42
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by Three Left Feet:
“I reckon 25% would be fine whilst the remaining 4 out of 5 would struggle.”

PMSL!!!!

JJ
jjackson42
11-11-2010
Deleted - dup post
Philly1234
11-11-2010
I know I've asked this in another thread, but what happened to the judges breaking ties before the voting starts? I know they did it for that one Christmas special. That would easily solve this problem.

I thought they were going to implement it all the time, but I guess it was just a one-off.
cranford fan
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by Philly1234:
“I know I've asked this in another thread, but what happened to the judges breaking ties before the voting starts? I know they did it for that one Christmas special. That would easily solve this problem.

I thought they were going to implement it all the time, but I guess it was just a one-off.”

The Christmas Special was a one off and I seem to remember that the recording was delayed for hours while they tried to sort out the problem of having four couples on the same score. My only issue with the judges breaking ties before the voting starts is that they often have their favourites and could manipulate the score board in order to manufacture the result they want. For example last weekend imagine Scott and Gavin had been tied wouldn't the judges have been tempted to rank Scott ahead of Gavin even though arguably on the night Gavin did the best dance?
VintageWhine
11-11-2010
Originally Posted by fondantfancy:
“That sounds good but imagine explaining it to the voting public.

”

I don't think it would be too much of a problem, really - I mean, they don't explain how the points are allocated now, do they?

All they would need to do would be to announce, on a one-off basis, that tied couples would be sharing the points they would be allocated if they weren't tied. Then, in each show, they display the points with no further explanation.

Mind you, all this is somewhat academic, as they're highly unlikely to change anything anyway. But it's fun talking about it (well I think so!).
hiawatha
11-11-2010
Seeing as the almighty Beeb keep the public votes secret and knowing their past record with viewers phone in votes( they have been found to have fiddles several phone in votes)who knows how"accurate" the final results are.
Also who knows how many Beeb employees vote using the company phones.
It stinks.
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