Originally Posted by Glenn A:
“Maybe TXF has peaked. If you use BB as a comparison it peaked in series six, then started a slow decline. Next year I reckon the average will be down to 11 million, then 9 million the next and possibly 7 million for the 2013 series, when Cowell will call it a day.”
Why would it fall so dramatically now though - though I do definately think next year's show could suffer as Cowell takes his eye off the ball to launch it stateside.
And BB peaked in season 3 - and although like most reality shows TXF had a strong third season then a relatively weak forth, unlike others it's just grown and grown since then and we can't even say if it's peaked yet, never mind started to decline.
Originally Posted by Glenn A:
“Wasn't BB6 the most successful series overall, with an average of 6 million viewers and the final of BB3 the most watched? I know the decline started after BB6 and became really marked during BB9. I'm sure Cowell will know when to quit and I think 2013 will be the end of TXF.”
BB3 was by far the most successful, with regular shows actually hitting 7m in the last couple of weeks. BB4's ratings were actually only a flop in comparison to the hugely successful BB3 (it outrated both BB1 and BB2). Ratings dipped again slightly for BB6, rise slightly for BB7 (after a successful CBB4) and then went into free fall from BB8.
The shows lifespans are quite different though and it wasn't until the axe fell that noticeable (and much needed) changes to the production of Big Brother were implemented, whilst creatively Big Brother peaked from BB5-BB7 then they seemed at a loss of how to proceed. TXF though has seen production improve year on year and - if the talent shows up - there is little reason why the show couldn't continue in the years ahead. The question is what happens when Cowell is bored of it - and we'll get a taste of that next year with BGT (and Idol) and see whether he's as important to these shows as he'd like us to think he is.
Quote:
“However, hats off to Mr Cowell for bringing back ratings that were last seen in about 1989. Before BGT hit the stratosphere last year, most people would say only an England football match would attract over 15 million viewers.”
Completely agree - never thought we'd see shows hitting double figures on a regular basis again. Also have to say I think Strictly and X Factor have undoubtedly fed each others ratings - I think without the other to create the Saturday night battle whichever one was around would be stuck below 10m.