What I love about this series is that there are so many serious contenders, not just one or two front-runners. It will, of course, depend on the public vote and, since we don't know how that's going, it's pure speculation and I wouldn't bet money on any of the following predictions:
5th - Gavin. I think his support last week was more in the way of the traditional 'save the one you prefer from the bottom two on the leaderboard' and, in particular, he caught the 'anti-Ann' vote. I can't see the judges marking him high in the swingathon and the samba is a toughie, so even if he does well in the Viennese Whirl (thank you, Bonnie

), he will find it hard to climb from bottom of the leader-board.
4th (or 3rd) - Scott. Is this the first time in Strictly history that a strong candidate has gone so far backwards in the latter stages? He recovered well from that poor rumba with a fabulous jive (still one of my favourite dances from the series), but a lacklustre samba, disastrous AS and so-so paso have had me shaking my head in bewilderment. I think he has lost momentum. However, if he can deliver a good AT and Charleston, and swing the judges in the swingathon (after his jive, this should suit him), then he will make the final.
3rd (or 4th) - Pamela. She has been brilliant. I can't help but be patronising in saying she has defied expectations of what a 61-year-old can do, because she has. Utterly committed and focused, great musicality and a bloody good dancer. But my instinct is that she is not
that popular with the voting public, which may be why the BBC has been promoting her so assiduously. I doubt she will wow in the swingathon as her jive was only average, so if she is not top of the leader-board, I think the lack of public support will see her bow out at the semi-final stage. If I am wrong (and I hope I am), she will make the final, but not beat Kara or Matt.
2nd - Matt. Even up to a couple of weeks ago, I would have put Matt first. I'm sure he is still really popular and he is a very fluid and gymnastic dancer. But he, too, has plateaued in recent weeks with an AS that didn't impress the judges (I was impressed, but that's just me) and a very odd jive. His frustration is showing, I think, and, like Scott, he must be short of training time and very tired. I don't know, really. I fear that the same demographic that saw Chris and Tom being crowned will work in his favour, but neither Gethin nor Matt Di Angelo could beat Alesha, so it may not be such a factor this year either, particularly if his public support is waning.
1st - Kara. She started as a good dancer, but not a great one. She has grown and grown since throwing caution to the winds in her paso and has produced excellent dances every week. The jive was a bit of a blip, but was still my favourite dance in a strange 'Blackpool hangover' week and, looking back on them all, she has produced some fabulous dances. I think she is gaining momentum and has the talent and support to win. She is this year's Alesha in that respect. She's certainly my favourite.