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Yougov's X Factor Prediction Poll - Its Matt.


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Old 11-12-2010, 03:26
The Poll Mole
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Very accurate last year of course with 1,2,3 in the correct order.

I have heard that they have included under 18s but can not confirm.

MATT Cardle is set to storm to X Factor victory tonight - IF he is well enough to sing.

Which of the four finalists do you intend to VOTE for?

Matt 51%
Rebecca 32%




One Direction 9%
Cher 8%

83% say they have already made their mind up about who to vote for.

I have heard that they have a lot more detail (top 3, top2) but the hack at the sun has not written it up...


http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...r-victory.html
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Old 11-12-2010, 03:30
Carmen Queasy
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I was going to say "I'm surprised that One Direction are so low" then realised that their main audience is probably kids who don't vote on YouGov, so at least in the case of One Direction I wouldn't trust that percentage. They could steal a large percentage from the other acts.

Still, I doubt they'd take 23% from Matt to put them above both him and Rebecca.


Incidentally, I started using YouGov a long time ago, but since it took me 3 years to get £50 I stopped after the first cheque
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Old 11-12-2010, 03:39
The Poll Mole
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I had heard that this time they included under 18s but that might be wrong.

Survation had a go at looking at the "under 18 effect" here;

We wondered what percentage of votes coming from the Under-18′s age group would have a significant impact – well, according to our data, the percentage of votes from the Under-18′s age group would have to be about 40% of total votes cast in order for One Direction to trouble Rebecca, and they would have to make up over half the voting demographic to knock Matt from his perch. These we find to be highly unlikely demographics.
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Old 11-12-2010, 03:43
Carmen Queasy
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If YouGov is the same now as it's always been, then you have to actively register to take part and surveys are just emailed to people. If they do them they get £X into their YouGov account.

Even if under 18s did take part, I'd go out to assume that very few people in that demographic will be represented on YouGov.

Last year we had Joe, Olly and Stacey in the final 3, who probably didn't attract too many kids.

However, that link you provided claim they included 10% of under 18s and One Direction didn't do that much better; just a few %.
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Old 11-12-2010, 03:49
The Poll Mole
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If YouGov is the same now as it's always been, then you have to actively register to take part and surveys are just emailed to people. If they do them they get £X into their YouGov account.

Even if under 18s did take part, I'd go out to assume that very few people in that demographic will be represented on YouGov.

Last year we had Joe, Olly and Stacey in the final 3, who probably didn't attract too many kids.

However, that link you provided claim they included 10% of under 18s and One Direction didn't do that much better; just a few %.
No, that's just a guess. The younger a person is, the less likely they are to vote. Twitter and the net is full of tweens expressing themselves for 1d. What does it cost to actully vote? 80p on a mobile? The Survation point is that HALF of the votes for 1D would need to be under 18s for them to beat Cardle.
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Old 11-12-2010, 03:55
Carmen Queasy
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No, that's just a guess. The younger a person is, the less likely they are to vote. Twitter and the net is full of tweens expressing themselves for 1d. What does it cost to actully vote? 80p on a mobile? The Survation point is that HALF of the votes for 1D would need to be under 18s for them to beat Cardle.
Ah, I see, makes sense.

Of course, kids are less likely to vote at all.

A similar thing, I think, happened to Aiden, where his demographic never really voted for him because the stuff he done was slightly more "alternative" than the rest and this type of show typically doesn't attract votes from that crowd (the type of people who pretend they don't watch it but do ). Aiden is pretty popular and even some "indie" kids I know like him, which is a big step for someone coming from the X-Factor.

The votes made on the show, as we have seen time and time again, do not reflect how popular someone will become in a music career. In this case One Direction may not get further than 3rd but their music buying audience may be much bigger than Matt's... if that ramble made sense
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Old 11-12-2010, 04:12
whatever4444
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Cher and 1D could be battling 3rd. People are really setting her on the side but she might surprise some people imo and take their place.

Same for Rebecca. She can still take this away from Matt even if every poll has him as the clear favorite.

A lot of things will depend on the night imo. This wouldn't be the most exciting x factor season and most controversial if it didn't end in a controversial way. So I'm expecting some kind of shock.
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Old 11-12-2010, 04:22
123musicalfan
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Just because people 'think' Matt will win does not mean they will vote for him. They should vote on the Saturday
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Old 11-12-2010, 04:33
Carmen Queasy
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Just because people 'think' Matt will win does not mean they will vote for him. They should vote on the Saturday
I asked in another thread how the polls were worded, because I think Matt would win but I would never vote for him.

The polls should be "who will you vote for" instead of "who do you want to win" or "who do you think will win".

YouGov polls are dependent polls, so if the fist question was "will you vote in the X-Factor final", then only those who click "yes" would get to answer the next question about who they'd vote for.

That seems like a more accurate way to get an idea, but of course people multiple vote so it can never get around that.
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