OK fed up with foot off floor outrage and Mattgate now......lets have a more rounded thread please.

We have had 1 dance and the swingamess....sorry...swingathon and we have a half way leaderboard....who do you think will be going home after tonight ?

Based on the 'informants' that we have had on the voting and my gut instinct I think the following.

Kara and Matt will be straight into the final........Matt was always going to be there and last nights bit of bother will have cemented his place.......Kara absolutely bloomin deserves to be there after her performance last night and I personally think she has the support too now.

Based on the voting order that was 'leaked' last week then Gavin (despite being possibly as high as third fav in the vote) will go home as he is bottom of the board, and likely to stay there. He will be joined by Pamela as I am not convinced her vote is as strong and its been being top of the board that has been keeping her safe.

what do you think

I hope Pamela and Scott - and I'll do everything I can to ensure that happens; though I'm not optimistic.

I have absolutely no idea. I really don't even want to make a guess lol. I'm afraid I'll jinx someone and it'll be on my karmic head that they leave

People say it every year but this year, it truly could be anyone that gets to that final. It's all dependent on who the public decides to save because while on 3 can make the final, 4 deserve to by this stage. It's anyone's game.

Gavin will definitely be going home. There's a good chance that Pam will be joining him, but I hope it's Scott.

Hopefully, Pamela and Gavin. I hve enjoyed watching Gavin's journey (sorry!) but he's the worst dancer.
Of the other 4, Pamela should go. I believe the judges have over marked her.
Kara, Matt and Scott will make a great final

I think Gavin and Scott.

Gavin will certainly go - but Pamela's overmarking may well save her at Scott's expense

I think Pamela & Gavin will go tonight but I would prefer Matt to go.

I would guess that Pamela and Gavin are leaving this weekend.

Although.... I wouldn't be totally surprised if Gavin replaced Scott in the final three.

Much as I like Gavin and Katya I hope that that doesn't happen though, as I think that Scott deserves his place more, and I prefer watching him dance.

I think it will be Gavin and Scott, but I hope it will be Gavin and Pamela because I think Kara, Matt and Scott will be a more exciting final.

It'll be Gavin and whoever gets the lowest public vote between Scott and Pamela. Nobody's catching Kara, and Matt will have to go some to catch either of them to split them, as his tango training was heavily criticised by Erin. So they'll be one point away from eachother with the judges, meaning whoever gets the most viewer votes stays.

Given that Scott is on a Bottom 2 bounce, and has a good dance for him tonight, it'll probably be Pamela who goes.

Gavin and Pamela please. I wanted Scott, kara and Matt from day 1

I think Scott & Gavin will go tonight.

I hope Pamela and Scott go but I would be ok with any combination as long as Matt and Gavin stay Not asking much, I know

Gavin and Scott will be going tonight. I'd rather Pamela went than Scott because I prefer him but I can't deny she's a great dancer.

I'm really not sure, but I think that Kara and Matt will make the final, I think Gavin's almost certainly out and then it's one of Scott and Pamela.

I think it will be whoever finishes next to bottom will go through as they will get more panic votes.

I'm not saying that a shock exit isn't possilbe though and that both Scott and Pamela go out and Gavin goes through.

I think that Pamela and Scott/Gavin will go tonight.

I would not be that surprised to see Gavin in the final 3. He is peaking at the right time, and seems to be surging in popularity. Personally I think both Scott definitely and Pamela more belatedly peaked too early.

I think Gavin is a definite and one of either Scott or Pamela.. I don`t think Scott is a popular with the public but Pamela`s popularity is yet to be tested.

For Pamela to go the scoreboard would need to look somthing like this.

1. Kara 5 + 4 = 9
2. Matt 4 + 5 = 9
3. Pamela 3 + 1 = 4
4. Scott 2 + 2 = 4
5. Gavin 1 + 3 = 4

That would save Gavin and see Pamela and Scott leaving - so you can bet the scoreboard wont look like that

I think Kara & Matt are definitely through and Gavin is definitely going home.

The final spot is between Scott & Pamela for me and I have a feeling that Scott may just pip Pamela for the final spot. He could het the bounce back vote plus he has a Charleston tonight which i think will get him more votes.

We have 4 great dancers and sadly we are going to lose 1 tonight.

I don't think that's an impossible scoreboard as Matt made up some points in the swingathon. But I do have the feeling that at least one of Pamela/Scott will finish above Matt and Gavin can't jump all three in the public vote. I think he could beat Scott and Pamela but not Matt.

Agreed Buddy.

<smoooooooooooooooch!> x

I think it'll be Gavin and either Pamela or Scott also. Whatever chance Gavin had has been scuppered by Mattgate! To be brutally frank, I don't really care who goes. There are things I like about everyone left, and things I dislike, too:

Matt: my initial favourite, but all his choreography has been meh so I just feel frustrated about him.

Kara: probably my current favourite, but I'm struggling to see any real emotional connection with the dance.

Scott: man sets my teeth on edge personality-wise and while he's done some sublime dances, he's also seen far too much carnage.

Pamela: love the 100% commitment, think she's a great dancer, relieved to see someone who isn't stick thin (even though I'm stick thin) looking GREAT out there. But why must she SIMPER so?

Gavin: well, I think he is very funny and I probably smile more in his bits than in anyone else's - and that's the point of Saturday night TV, right? - but let's face it, he's a pants dancer.

I wouldn't be surprised if the judges knew hpw the public vote is going It is possible that they may overmark Pamela again to give enough of a buffer and keep her above Matt. Pam was overmarked last night- and they know that her paso was more of an 8 rather than a 9

If I were a betting person, I'd put money on Gavin and Scott, simply because they've both been in the bottom 2 already and they aren't particularly high on the leaderboard, so neither the judges vote nor the viewer vote will be enough to save either from a double elimination... and I'd be happy with that result, although I won't be too disappointed if Pamela goes instead of Scott. As long as Gavin goes and my favourite (Kara) and 2nd favourite (Matt) are in the final, I'll be a happy bunny.

This was in the lastest popbich mail-out; most of it relates to XFactor and I've left that it for context, but it seems to suggest Pamela is 2nd favourite: