Kara 28%
Matt 28%
Pam 25%
Scott 14%
Gav 4%


It shows it's very close between the top 3 and any of them can win the final.
Pam clearly not being over-marked to save her.
She's as popular as Kara.

Does it say how many people voted in this poll? I've seen polls being taken as gospel reflections of the public vote, only for it to emerge later that less than fifty people voted in the poll!

This is interesting....depending of course on how many people voted

Yes and on how random their choice of voters was.

All I know is that they didn't ask me.

They usually sample is around 2000 people.

The full details aren't up on the ICM website as yet, but they conducted one a few weeks back which had a sample of over 2000.

Looking at that one, Matt had 19% and Pam & Kara had 11%.

So all 3 are picking up more support. Kara and Pam more so than Matt.

The poll on this forum is just as indicative of the public's voting tendencies as any other. It's always a good indicator.

Interesting.....it doesnt reflect the DS polls where Matt and Kara and leaps and bounds above Pam every week.

However I think myself that Pamela will be out first in the final and then the winner will be down to the both the showdance and who the Pamela, Scott and Gavin votes go to.

I'm not sure that's the case.

The DS poll is often way out.

Professional polls like this one....and YouGov have also done X Factor polls, have proven to be very accurate in the past.

Even getting the final percentages pretty spot on in the case of X Factor.

It depends on the question asked and the DS forum is just as random as that poll. It also depends when they asked as I presume it couldn't have been yesterday, it could have been 2 minutes after Pam's VW.

Also, just because you like someone, just as on these polls, doesn't mean you're actually going to pick up the phone and vote.

As long as I've been coming here, the runaway favourite week after week on the DS poll has always been the eventual winner I don't want to jinx anyone lol but in previous series (when I've come here, series 5 onwards) it's always been that way. Alesha (although Gethin overtook her if I remember right but then we had the dance-off back then to intervene), Tom (after Austin went the way of Gethin and Rachel gave him a run for his money), Chris and now Kara. Last year I was praying the Chris support would wane towards the end and checked the poll a lot because I knew that previously it had always indicated the winner but alas, his support only grew It's just how I remember it but I've always taken this poll as gospel because every year it came to fruition. Now that I've said that, I bet this will be the first year that it doesn't lol.

That feels about right, I'm not sure why so many on DS seem to think Pamela is getting no votes when there's never been any proof of that.

It's still very much up for grabs I feel, is this the first final when none of them have previously been in the bottom two?

I'm very sceptical about this being a true reflection of public opinion.

You could well be right on that
I think with SCD the DS poll has been pretty accurate.
It's on other shows where it's often way out.

The DS polls, as a whole, tend to be inaccurate, when the majority of forum members get a bee in their bonnets about something that most general viewers don't worry about.

I believe that's the case this year, where there's a very anti Pam feeling on the forum because of perceived overmarking and an opposite effect of a rallying behind Kara because of perceived undermarking.

I suspect for this reason the ICM is much closer to the reality of how the vote is going.

I hope so, because it means we'll have a close and exciting final where any of the 3 can win on the night.

I don't think she's getting NO votes but I can't see her getting more than either Kara or Matt.

Congratulations to the NOTW ICM also for the poll published on 7th November, predicting a Final with Matt, Scott, and Ann.

http://www.ourwarner.com/2010/11/new...dancing-final/

Ann could have been getting more votes than Kara & Pamela and still gone out because of the judges scores so I don't see what that proves?

As I've posted a couple of times, the popbitch mailout has Matt and Pamela as the contestants with the most votes.This may have been based on last week only, but in 11 years of reading the site/receiving their mailout, all their reality TV predictions have been accurate - their sources are journalists and TV staff. The editor of the site is also a journalist though he relies on others for "news"

Well that poll says she isn't just that it's close.

I don't think she will win but I don't think 3rd place is inevitable as some people seem to think.

Ah, see I don't go on other boards here so I didn't realise the rest of the polls for other shows were inaccurate. Well, all I can say is that it would be bloody typical that the one year I actually care about who wins, the DS poll (which currently supports my favourite) will turn out to be inaccurate lol.

Indeed.
It's not like X Factor where it's a pure public vote. It's a combination of judges and public.

Also the joke was starting to wear thin with Ann and Scott had a steep decline in performance soon after that poll.
So it's no surprise if his vote went the same way.

Does it say when it was polled? Print deadlines mean it was either small numbers immediately after the show or could be larger numbers in the week before the semifinal.

One to bear in mind (from a technical polling point of view) is that those who telephone vote on the show are a self selecting population. We're looking at a total vote that might be around two million (based on series 5 declaration of Children in Need money raised). Random selection of population and discard all but the one in thirty who has voted in finals before and definitely intends to vote again? Around 30 thousand initial contacts to approach statistical validity. No, far too much effort for a poll that's only 'a bit of fun' in a newspaper, I'd be very surprised if they got beyond those who could be prompted with a few semi finalist names.

I'd put a lot more store by the odds the bookies are quoting. People who put money on a result usually go further than repeating the first name they're prompted with. Best odds for both Kara and Matt are currently 5/4. If you really think Pam has a chance there are bookies who will happily part you from your money at 6/1. Matt is 5/4 everywhere, Kara has shortening odds at some bookies; that usually means they have had some money come in for her.

Incidentally, if you want independent confirmation that footygirl, olivej and alisonrose are beacons of reliability with reports of who is through, just check a betting summary site like oddschecker. These three are the only ones with odds quoted.

It proves voting patterns can change. Kara definitely polled higher than Ann last week and Scott who (according to NOTW above) was polling higher than anyone but Matt clearly dropped below both Kara and Gavin.

Weekly judges' topscorer to date:
http://www.ianvictoria.co.uk/comedancing8.htm

Pamela - 5 times (wk1 waltz joint, wk 2 salsa joint, wk 3 rumba, wk 9 charleston, wk 10 VW:40, wk 11 quickstep:40)

Kara ---- 2.5 times (wk 2 foxtrot joint, wk 6 salsa, wk 11 VW)

Matt ----- 2 times (wk 1 cha cha joint, wk 4 charleston joint, wk 8 samba)

Track-records right or wrong suggest the following judges rankings could materialise after Round 1 on Saturday:

Pamela -- 3
Kara ----- 2
Matt ------ 1

If the NOTW ICM were accurate in predicting close polling between all three, then the following aggregated scenarios could potentially materialise (after some more 10 10 10 10 from Pamela?):

Pamela -- 3 + 1 = 4 (and eliminated)
Kara ----- 2 + 2 = 4
Matt ------ 1 + 3 = 4 (popular, & undivided male vote)

Pamela -- 3 + 2 = 5
Kara ----- 2 + 1 = 3 (and eliminated)
Matt ------ 1 + 3 = 4 (popular, & undivided male vote)

The Showdance may well decide who wins the glitterball, but by then it would be too late for the Round 1 loser. Game not all over by any means.

I thought the judges votes didn't count in the final, or is that only when they get down to the last two?

I assume that the "ICM" part means it's a proper poll, rather than people clicking on the newspaper web site. So it won't be as bad as, say, 50 people voting.

But see alanfic's point about the SCD telephone vote vs random selection. Even if the poll is a good measure of what the general public thinks, it could be wrong about the people who choose to vote in SCD. There's also multi-voting to consider, and that people may vote for more than one contestant. So there's a significant mismatch between how opinion polls normally work and SCD voting.