Predictions for next year
BGT has lost ground a bit this year, so Cowell will make sure it regains ground for 2011. Expect 17 million for the final.
Strictly will become top dog on autumn Saturday nights. I reckon 16 million for the final and 14 million for the last four weeks.
TXF will be hit by a vote rigging scandal and substandard acts. Ratings will still be good, but down to 1o million for the knock out stages and 12 million for the final.
Corrie, Emmerdale, Eastenders with no anniversaries will settle around the 7-9 million mark each week.
Downton Abbey will return triumphant next autumn. With TXF in decline, ITV will pull out all the stops to get it to the top on Sundays. Expect 11-12 million viewers.
IAC, too hard to predict, with good contestants expect an average of 9 million( like this year).
Doctor Who, the preview of the new stories looks promising and the splitting of the series between the spring and autumn will help. I expect 8 million for this series as the weather won't interfere as much.
Channel 4 will get over the death of BB next year. Ratings might be down slightly, but series like Million Pound Drop will fill the gap adequately.
Programmes likely to go due to falling ratings: My Family( every last joke has been milked), DOI( not such a big hitter and a hopeless line up could spell the end), Hollyoaks( if yet another revamp fails, though it could go to E4), any cookery/ reality show involving Marco Pierre White.

Cowell's primary interest in 2011 will be American X Factor. If he's not taking part in the auditions I don't think he'll put much effort into BGT


Wouldn't mourn any of these programmes' demise.

Even on Boxing Day with the aftermath of the Christmas Day ratings still to be discussed and predictions for tonight, you turn your attentions to your obsession with predicting that ITV's reality shows and soaps will decline, yet again

Yet BGT is a newer show than TXF and did rate higher in 2009. I still think he knows 2013 will be when his two ratings warhorses will start to appear tired and then axe them before they do a Big Brother and become something the media turn against.
My Family is my prime candidate for the axe. Seeing the Christmas special, it looked so tired and outdated and surely now is the time it was cancelled.
I often wonder if 71 Degrees North will make a comeback. Ratings of 3.5 million might suggest another series.

That would have been a bad idea. You'd have comedy going against comedy meaning ITV wouldn't even be offering an alternative.

What are the chances of Come Fly with Me still having 10 million viewers by episode 6?

Its going to see a huge fall across the series, which is regrettable, because the first episode was really very good - much better than Little Britain, it just cant sustain those sorts of figures.

I think the early part of tonight's schedule on BBC1 is a bit poor.

Countryfile and Antiques Roadshow? I know these shows get good ratings, but on Boxing Day? really?

No, it would have been up against Matt Lucas and David Walliams! Come Fly with Me was the weak part of the BBC's schedule, and had it faced some competition ITV could have benefited from some clever scheduling.

So many stand out ratings from yesterday. Emmerdale did excellently this year. Up 2.0m from last year is a real achievement and this reflects the sensational 2010 it's had. Well done to all concerned. And also it stood up against 10.3m DW fans. I was thoroughly disappointed with DW last night. I just kept looking at the 'time remaining' on my Sky+ when I watched it back cos I just wanted it to end.

As I scrolled down the list and read SCD had 9.4m, I assumed Corrie would have been crushed, but the 9.0m rating for Corrie was then a massive surprise. Both held up very well.

As expected EE won the day. And CFWM performed way beyond my expectations. Will be interesting to see how it holds up over the series.

I bet Lee Mack's not very happy if he sat through CFWM last night, given that Not Going Out feasts on whatever audience he is bequeathed by Walliams and Lucas on Thursday week.


Discussed weeks ago on here - I think it's very disappointing but these are popular BBC1 Sunday shows and it will be interesting to see how they do tonight up against a big ITV movie premiere.

I think Boxing Day is a strong viewing night this year, unlike last year. I'll be sticking with BBC2 from 7pm through till 10.45pm, but will be recording Upstairs Downstairs and Benidorm for viewing later. Something for everyone, but I do feel it is a major own goal for the BSI to have engineered a clash between the Top Gear Special and EE/Upstairs Downstairs.

Upstairs Downstairs could get anything from 5m to 11m tonight. You'd have to think the lower end of that scale with tough guaranteed 5m competition from ITV1, Top Gear bound to get 6m+ and a worthy drama on BBC2 likely to cream off some of the drama audience even if it only gets 2m itself - but UD has had loads of promotion and publicity, and we saw what that did for Come Fly with Me last night.

Or any other night of the year when BBC1 or ITV1 managed a run of 5 successive shows all with official ratings over 10m (which BBC1 will clearly have managed between 6pm and 10.30pm last night when the proper figures come out)....

CFWM did really well, but the beeb will flop tonight.

One Born Every Minte At Christmas didnt do as well as I expected.

The 10pm slot has become a good one , it did wonders for Gavin and Stacey and it did great for CFWM. Royle Family was on par with previous years, One Ronnie did excellent as did Doctor Who and Strictly. Shrek the Third did okay but it's a terrible film.

I vote Miranda and/or Outnumbered for the 10pm slot for Christmas 2011.

Will be interesting how Enchanted and Upstairs Downstairs do tonight.

I reckon tonight will be a close run thing. Upstairs Downstairs was one of the biggest dramas of the seventies and fondly remembered, so expect about 7- 8 million. However, Benidorm's earthy charms and reasonably good writing has won it a good following, so don't expect much less than 7 million for this. All in all ITV1 and BBC One can come out of this happy.
Yet for next Christmas, expect a Miranda Christmas special, as this has come on well against such a huge opponent as Corrie, the Royles again, maybe The One Ronnie if Corbett is up to it in a more peak time slot and the hardy perennials like the three soaps and the Doctor. Don't be surprised, though, if ITV, who seem to find it hard going in the 9-11pm slot, have Benidorm on next Christmas Day. This could pull in 7 million and drag down the BBC's big hitters.

I think if the BBC decide to move Miranda to BBC1 airing the christmas special at 8.30 with EE at 5.30 and 8 would be a good choice, followed by TRF at 9 and Outnumbered at 10. Miranda could benefit from following EE on Mondays at 8.30 for the weeks ahead (only now on BBC1 instead) Could be a worthwhile move if they do move it over to the main channel.

I'm sure a certain person on here will find the BBC1 breakdown for Doctor Who interesting...

SD - 9.0m (34.8%)
HD - 1.3m (5.0%)
Total = 10.3m (39.8%)

And:

BBC3 - Doctor Who Confidential: 207,000 (0.8%)

Source: Doctor Who News

dont get me wrong Confidentail was really boring, but I always figured it did better than that.

Its probably one of the lowest ever figures but there were 9m watching Corrie and another 9m watching SCD at the same time.

true, not sure what it normally does.

I reckon the Friday night comedy hour on BBC One would be better for Miranda. Yes the show has done well on BBC Two in its current slot, but might not gain that much against Coronation St on BBC One and then where would Panorama go.

Very Surpised EastEnders won the day
My money was on either Come fly with me or the Royle family given the Hype.
There was just no hype for this EastEnders storyline
and the BBC didn't advertise it all that much but a massive welldone to them as the episode was one of the best xmas episodes i've seen for years
High drama,lighter moments and a nice happy ending to a soap icon

Looking forward to the very gritty new year episodes now.

I think 7-8m is about all for EastEnders tonight
seeing as it's the only soap on,airing at 8:30pm and it's against TV burp and i don't expect the BBC 3 repeat to be up either given its on at 11:20pm

DR who was good last night and rated well for such an early time slot

SCD rated well

Emmerdale and Corrie held up and had they not been on
ITV1 might as well have shown repeats or night
so im sure ITV will be over the moon at their ratings

Come fly with me was total rubbish and why the BBC put that into the 10;00pm xmas day slot i'll never know

The one Ronnie was funny in parts and stupid in others.

4million for Top of The pops at 2:00pm goes to show people still want a music show

I think, on this one they will just have to point out the ratings figure. It was a tremendous success on the figures. As for the appreciation-I thought it was poor at first at the end it just about tolerable. But the characters need to strike a chord and few had the same impact as the Little Britain characters did at the outset. The "Airport" style of the programme was ok but Im not sure the main characters are going to make people tune in again and again.

The TOTP rating is good, but if it does show the public want a music show the BBC will have been once again outmaneuvered by Simon Cowell who is apparently going to provide it.

Agree with Dan, the big two soaps salvage something for ITV1 on Christmas Day and stop it being a complete write off for them. Otherwise it could be You've Been Framed panned out for two hours or some substandard film in their slot ( National Lampoon's Christmas Vacation to remind them of 1993 when OFCOM came down on ITV like a ton of bricks).
However, should ITV really care as their Christmas ratings war really ends when TXF's credits roll and a day later 20 million have watched? I think ITV seem to be taking a sensible path now of showing a bit of resistance to the BBC with their two soaps, offering Poirot as a sober alternative to the BBC comedies( though such a big drama was wasted last night), rather than showing complete rubbish as they used to do in the nineties as they thought they couldn't win.