Digital Spy seems to be in a bit of a bubble of its own where Kara is guaranteed to win. Basically the 16th of December is the day that has apparently changed everything, Kara was originally odds on favourite to win on the 15th but suddenly her odds went through the roof and Matt's fell.

Part of the reason is because Kara got the flu, but less publicised was that Matt and Aliona have both caught it too.

An individual named 'onthehushhush' who had a huge amount of success with the X Factor results and who seems to have insider knowledge posted on the Popbitch and Betfair that Matt led the SCD semi's with 50% of the vote despite 5 contestants being in the race at the time. This caused everyone to start placing bets on Matt and hence why his odds are so low.

You can see the winner's odds here: http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...dancing/winner


Some things to consider:
--- The poll on an unofficial SCD website: http://www.strictlycomedancing.tv/ has K&A in the lead, however, the poll was created 3 weeks ago, things have changed.
--- The Poll on the TVScoop website: http://www.tvscoop.tv/2010/12/you-vo...hould-win.html shows Kara just pipping it and the poll was created yesterday.
--- The poll on the Mirror website: http://www.mirror.co.uk/celebs/tv/st...-come-dancing/ shows Kara with a comfortable lead but I don't know when the poll was created. Also Kara's option is selected by default and the only way to see the results is to click Vote so people may just be clicking Vote and casting a vote for Kara to see the results.
--- This DS poll: http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s....php?t=1408584 has Kara with a big lead and it was created on the 12th
--- My DS thread at: http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s....php?t=1410095 showed a big lead for Kara as 1st and Matt as 2nd.
--- Another DS thread: http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/forums/s....php?t=1409854 shows big support for K&A and even says it's only for people who plan to vote, how truthful people have been, I don't know.
--- Also a release of a poll by the News of the world: http://www.icmresearch.co.uk/pdfs/20...cing_poll2.pdf (BEWARE, PDF) shows a close competition.

So by the looks of all polls suggest a win for Kara. There are other things to consider though:
--- It's widely assumed that Pamela will be the first to leave on Saturday night, at which point, you need to think where her votes will transfer to, if she's spent the competition trying to identify with older women, it's a good guess that they'll transfer to Matt as he's such a 'nice boy'.
--- Strictly Come Dancing winners are almost always Male, Female winners have to be exceptional to the max. It seems that this year, Kara is definitely up there with Alesha but is she better, and even if she was - would it be enough to beat Matt?
--- Artem is lucky he's a good looking chap, it's likely he's pulling in a few of the housewives votes too for Kara.


Now, despite all the apparent support for Kara in the polls, Matt is still the odds on favourite by a mile and the people on the Betfair forums are rubbing their hands with glee already talking as if Matt has won.
This 'onthehushhush' person seems to have a bit of a following and what he says seems to go as people have bet thousands of pounds since he came out with that leak. We don't know the demographics of people who vote in the polls above and even though it looks very strong for Kara, I have serious doubts that she'll be lifting the Glitterball trophy.

If you have any more information that you think is relevant, please post.

Well, if Kara doesn't get the glitterball, she'll be lifting up Artem instead.
In her shoes, I'd take him as the better prize.

My gut feeling is it is too close to call - people may admire Kara but some of Matt's vote has been due to a backlash in the judging. Who knows if that will carry through to the final?

That's all fascinating but honestly I think it will be neck and neck. I don't go for bookie odds or polls. Unless they are dyed in the wool fans, people are apt to change their minds on a weekly basis.

Most people I know are supporting Kara, a few Pamela (all of them because of James) and none Matt.

The age range is between 11 and 87 and mostly women, those supporting Pamela have Kara as second choice.

I originally was a Matt supporter but as the weeks have progressed the others have got better, he is still the same.

Most people I know are supporting Matt and some Kara. Haven't some across any Pamela fans.

I know a lot of Pamela fans who intend to vote like crazy.

There is a lot of support for Matt and Kara also.

What about all the people who only vote in the final?
I know quite a lot that don't vote on a week to week basis but may vote numerous times in the final.
I won't know who I will be voting for until saturday.

most people I know want Kara to win - but did want Matt to get to the final therefore they voted for him last week (as well as Kara)!! They won't however be voting for him in the final.

Matt may have got so many votes last week for a couple of reasons - people wanted him the final, and the judges were arsey to him. Doesn't mean to say they will vote for him this week.

My guess is it will be too close to call and whatever the judges say or don't say may have some affect (even if their marks don't).

Has anyone considered that votes up to semi final stage are far less than in the final itself. So far Kara and, in the latter stage, Pamela haven't needed any support.

So, in the final, the number of votes will go exponential with new voters and Kara and Pam voting support will be worthwhile.

I think it is anyones game, but most likely to be Matt or Kara because their dancing so far has been better than Pams.

I thought Matt had been favourite nearly every week up until the last one, certainly with the bookies. Kara only took the lead after topping the leaderboard last week so decisively, then Matt's odds fell after the salsa.

I wouldn't really put much stock in bookies as it's just how people are betting, rather than them having all that much insider info.

Matt got a huge vote last weekend because he was in the dangerous middle ground and his fans panic voted, Kara was top of the leaderboard and perceived as realtively safe (even though she could have been bottom 2).

Many fans haven't voted at all yet, I know I haven't, I'll be voting for the first time this weekend, as I presume will many others, so I guess no-one knows anything yet.

Matt has been favourite from Week 1, so over 13 weeks a lot of Betfair punters have backed him to win. Once his money is down a punter finds it difficult to be objective. So the alleged mountain of support may have been true enough in the past, but not necessarily so in the Final when punter votes are swamped by the general popuation nationwide.

Kara's partner Artem is widely admired and adored, James less so, while Aliona could be a serious liability votewise, especially if she comes out with two more kooky choreographies.

Voting until now has been about saving the vulnerable weaklings. This is no longer so. If defence of the underdog is the common underlying theme, well Kara is modest and girl-next-door. Matt arguably has kept a higher profile, and his partner is perceived as anything but emollient and soft-spoken. If the theme is to encourage the undertrodden and deserving, who would better fit this role, Kara or Matt?

Matt fans have been his old fans for a long time now. New supporters and switch voters appear more likely to favour Kara. What has Kara ever done to alienate her established supporters?

That Betfair guru is likely to be far wrong this time.

I know one mega Kara fan who has wanted her to win since day 1! Everyone else i know wants Matt to win but they all think kara is an amazing dancer!

Also people I know seem to be pleased Pamela is in the final but haven't heard one person say they want her to win!

Judging from the DS poll elsewhere, it seems there are crazy people planning to vote 50 times/

a) that clogs up the lines so preventing others from lodging their vote;
b) disappointed voters then go away saying it's all a fix.

What's the point of voting more than twice anyway? if the lines are clogged, that means more people wanting to come onto the same number to post the same vote.

Madness.

I'd be very surprised if many people vote 50 times. If they do I'd suggest they've got the programme out of perspective!

This is very true I haven't voted either yet! The thing is the 3 finalists were guaranteed a spot up until last week. Most people vote when they need to so if 50% is right I would say it is probably close to being accurate, Kara fans haven't seen their girl in danger yet so were probably more cautious with their money last week.

However I wouldn't write off the swell of support for Matt as temporary, I think it was his fans doing what they felt they needed to get him to the final in the same way they will be doing on final night!

I can't wait till Saturday, it will actually be a tense enjoyable one! ( or not enjoyable depending on if you have a firm fave or love them both)

Most people I know, across a broad range of ages, want Matt to win, but I really don't think he will. I just can't find it at all credible that all the online polls will turn out to be so wrong.

I think there will be some disappointed punters on the betting sites tomorrow night!

I appreciate all the people gathering info and trying to figure it out but really, no-one can guess what's going to happen. What will be will be and all the studying of polls and figures beforehand won't make any difference. Two days from now we'll know who won and I'm sure we'll get people saying 'I called it' and so on but really, it's just guesswork. No-one knows who's going to win or be eliminated first. It's all up in the air. That's the reason my stomach is doing somersaults

The way the lines work means you cannot clog up one contestants number.

All the SCD vote lines will take any vote you place. Only the last two numbers dictate who your vote is allocated to. So only when every available line is occupied for the brief period of time when Tess says "You have voted for whoever" can a vote not be made for any couple. A quick redial & you should be able to place your vote.

Actually, as of the past couple of weeks, I'd say Matt. I'm getting a vibe that the producers really don't want him to win. I may be imagining that, but even last night's trailers for Saturday night didn't feature him.

If I was a conspiracy theorist I'd say it's because they want to ditch Aliona next year and that will look very odd if she wins...

But I'm not a conspiracy theorist

Amen to that, Tangy.

I feel quite confident that Kara will win but less confident that Matt will come second, and I like them both equally.

So true , no one can predict it I feel . Its going to be tight and I am just hoping for a Kara win , but have almost talked my self into thinking she may not . If she is second to Matt I can live with that , but will cry if she is third to Pamela . I am soo anxious now too ,

Well Camilla left the year she won it and hasn't been back. I very much doubt the Beeb are against having their 'host of the moment' winning their most publicised show.

Thinking about it more, I don't think there's any metric by which Kara could be described as the underdog. Here's how I see it:

Matt is the bookies' fave (just) and up until the last couple of weeks was polling strongly on forums. He is the judges' least fave and currently second favourite on polls.

Pamela has had two 40s and the judges love her, she was second on the leaderboard in the semis. She is however the outsider at the bookies and in the polls.

Kara is loved, nay adored, by both the judges and the polling forumers. She's also *very* close to Matt in the odds and was favourite at the bookies earlier this week. Top of last week's judges' leaderboard.

So you could argue underdog status for Matt and Pam, though each has their strengths and advantages, but I can't see any justification for calling Kara the underdog.

Bit like Top Trumps this isn't it?