The Matt v Kara Situation as of the 16th

3 of 4

Alli-F

17-12-2010

Originally Posted by Bonnie96:
“As far as the Judges are concerned:

Pamela is lowest in Latin, with Matt being lowest in Ballroom and overall.

Pamela is highest in Ballroom with Kara being highest in Latin and overall.

In order - Kara, Pamela, Matt.

LATIN

Code:

Total AV % Kara/Artem 208/240 33.75 86.67 Matt/Aliona 202/240 33.67 84.17 Pamela/James 199/240 33.17 82.92

BALLROOM

Code:

Total AV % Pamela/James 215/240 35.83 89.58 Kara/Artem 213/240 35.50 88.75 Matt/Aliona 202/240 33.67 84.17

OVERALL

Code:

Total AV % Kara/Artem 421/480 35.08 87.71 Pamela/James 414/480 34.50 86.25 Matt/Aliona 404/480 33.67 84.17

The differences are too close to call but I reckon the Judges' comments are what the viewers remember so throwing that into the mix, it still all depends on the performances and the viewers' perceptions of the Judges' remarks.

The Judges don't need to score the dances to decide the winner.”

Thing is, those scores only mean anything if you think the judges have scored the dances fairly!

I would say the vast majority of us don't think Pamela is anywhere near as good as the judges would have us believe, so those scores don't really mean anything to me.

But it is interesting to read in b & w and see how deluded the judges have been this series! IMO of course!

pickledgherkin

18-12-2010

I don't think any of us can tell atm who is going to win. It all depends on how they dance, particularly the show dance. It will be close which is very exciting. I am hoping to be "wowed" by all of them. So far, Kara is my favourite but if one of the others does better on the night, I will vote for them.

BMLisa

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by Smokeychan1:
“I do think ITT has been a bit Matt heavy recently, but although not a "cribs" episode as such, we have seen Pamela's house in Scotland - James was on Billy's bed! - and Kara taking Artem home to meet Mum and Dad. So while I don't disagree with you generally** he hasnt been the only finalist to have the Strictly crew inside his home.

**Although it does irk me sometimes, I do wonder if the fact Matt gets more air time is not due to any machination on the part of the producers, it is simply a case of logistics; i.e. Matt has a camera crew following him around for CF, they may as well make use of them to produce some SCD stuff while they are at it.”

Matt also has an SCD crew following him round for training! I doubt the countryfile production are happy to waste their time and money and staff on SCD, I know the BBC is one big whole but I'm guessing each programme has budgets and timetables to stick to!

zamboanga

18-12-2010

I don't think the actual numbers are a good representation of what the judges think. It is better to look at the positions (1,2,3,...) they have given each of them over the weeks. I think, however that the relevant postions overall are still the same (I haven't done a check), but Kara is probably further ahead of Pamela.

The thing is the judges are (sort off - and sometimes only very sort off!) only judging on the dance technique of the celebrity. They are not judging on the choreography or on the 'X' factor of the dance/celebrity for the audience.

The evidence seems to be that in terms of X factor for the SCD audience, the order is

1 Matt
2/3 Kara/Pamela (in that order?)

Monaogg

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by zamboanga:
“I don't think the actual numbers are a good representation of what the judges think. It is better to look at the positions (1,2,3,...) they have given each of them over the weeks. I think, however that the relevant postions overall are still the same (I haven't done a check), but Kara is probably further ahead of Pamela.

The thing is the judges are (sort off - and sometimes only very sort off!) only judging on the dance technique of the celebrity. They are not judging on the choreography or on the 'X' factor of the dance/celebrity for the audience.

The evidence seems to be that in terms of X factor for the SCD audience, the order is

1 Matt
2/3 Kara/Pamela (in that order?)”

A lot of Kara's voters will have discovered the Artem X-Factor

zamboanga

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by Monaogg:
“A lot of Kara's voters will have discovered the Artem X-Factor ”

True. I should have written celebrity/dance/partner - writing as someone who has discovered the Aliona X-factor!

Fatima502

18-12-2010

Whoever is drawn second to perform of the final two will win.

LJJohnson

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by Fatima502:
“Whoever is drawn second to perform of the final two will win.”

Well we now know that the second show tonight will feature the new dance and the showdance, meaning the repeat dances will feature in the first show. Based on the order from last week, and the dances they are doing I would expect Matt's Samba to open the show- it's the perfect party starter.

What that means if I'm right is that if (as most people are expecting) it is a Matt v Kara final two, by evidence of previous series' that order will be reversed, making Kara, then Matt. This also means Matt's Showdance will be last, if I'm right, and I think his Showdance is the one most are anticipating, for good or bad.

Dollystanford

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by Abbasolutely 40:
“And whats the prediction on this final ,do we know ?? Please can it be Kara ? Please .”

'fraid not
he told us a little while ago to bet on a Matt (XF)/Matt (SCD)double

sorry, not my choice either

TylerTango

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by Dollystanford:
“'fraid not
he told us a little while ago to bet on a Matt (XF)/Matt (SCD)double

sorry, not my choice either ”

Well unless we vote then she definitely won't win.

Bonnie96

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by echad:
“Bonnie, sorry to be a pain but can you do split averages to show the differences between the first and second halves of the series? Would be good to compare. ”

They are already posted

Week 3 - 2 of each discipline been performed
Week 8 - Blackpool

Originally Posted by Alli-F:
“Thing is, those scores only mean anything if you think the judges have scored the dances fairly! I would say the vast majority of us don't think Pamela is anywhere near as good as the judges would have us believe, so those scores don't really mean anything to me. ”

I posted the figures because it's the only factual reference we have but I also said on the post that it is the comments which stick in the minds of viewers.
It's no coincidence imo, that Craig and Bruno are so theatrical - it makes their comments more memorable, plus it distracts from what is really going on with the scoreboard

In alphabetical order
Weekly (Running) Position

Code:

Week    G/K   	K/A   	M/A  	P/J     S/N
 1      4       2      	1      	1     	3
 2      8 (7)  	1 (2) 	2 (2)  	1 (1) 	1 (3)
 3	8 (8)	3 (3)	3 (3)	1 (1)	2 (2)
 4	7 (9)	3 (4)	1 (3)	2 (1)	1 (2)
 5	9 (9)	2 (2)	3 (2)	8 (3)	1 (1)
 6	6 (8)	1 (1)	2 (2)	3 (3)	7 (2)
 7	4 (7)	2 (1)	3 (2)	5 (3)	1 (1)
 8	7 (7)	3 (1)	1 (2)	2 (4)	4 (3)
 9	6 (5)	2 (1)	3 (2)	1 (3)	4 (3)
10	4 (5)	2 (1)	3 (3)	1 (2)	3 (4)
SF1	5 (5)	1 (1)	4 (4)	2 (2)	3 (3)
SF2	5 (4)	2 (1)	3 (3)	1 (2)	4 (3)

In the first part of the semi final, the Judges had them ranked exactly the same as the running leaderboard.

For a few weeks now, the Judges have had Kara running 1st overall with Pamela 2nd (previously Matt was 2nd), regardless of the leaderboard on the night which alternated between those 2.
Matt and Scott alternated for 3rd and 4th

soulmate61

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by pickledgherkin:
“I don't think any of us can tell atm who is going to win. It all depends on how they dance, particularly the show dance. It will be close which is very exciting. I am hoping to be "wowed" by all of them. So far, Kara is my favourite but if one of the others does better on the night, I will vote for them.”

Fair enough, the floating voter.
But could it be that floating voters when they decide, will vote only once or twice? Fans thoroughly committed are likely to vote many more times, thus diminishing the relative impact of the floating voter?

zamboanga

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by Bonnie96:
“They are already posted

Week 3 - 2 of each discipline been performed
Week 8 - Blackpool

I posted the figures because it's the only factual reference we have but I also said on the post that it is the comments which stick in the minds of viewers.
It's no coincidence imo, that Craig and Bruno are so theatrical - it makes their comments more memorable, plus it distracts from what is really going on with the scoreboard

In alphabetical order
Weekly (Running) Position

Code:

Week G/K K/A M/A P/J S/N 1 4 2 1 1 3 2 8 (7) 1 (2) 2 (2) 1 (1) 1 (3) 3 8 (8) 3 (3) 3 (3) 1 (1) 2 (2) 4 7 (9) 3 (4) 1 (3) 2 (1) 1 (2) 5 9 (9) 2 (2) 3 (2) 8 (3) 1 (1) 6 6 (8) 1 (1) 2 (2) 3 (3) 7 (2) 7 4 (7) 2 (1) 3 (2) 5 (3) 1 (1) 8 7 (7) 3 (1) 1 (2) 2 (4) 4 (3) 9 6 (5) 2 (1) 3 (2) 1 (3) 4 (3) 10 4 (5) 2 (1) 3 (3) 1 (2) 3 (4) SF1 5 (5) 1 (1) 4 (4) 2 (2) 3 (3) SF2 5 (4) 2 (1) 3 (3) 1 (2) 4 (3)

In the first part of the semi final, the Judges had them ranked exactly the same as the running leaderboard.

For a few weeks now, the Judges have had Kara running 1st overall with Pamela 2nd (previously Matt was 2nd), regardless of the leaderboard on the night which alternated between those 2.
Matt and Scott alternated for 3rd and 4th”

If you add up the total placement points (less is better) you get

Kara 24
Pamela 28
Matt 29

which means that Kara is clear, but not overwhelmingly first, and Pamela and Matt are virtually equal. If the judges were overwhelmingly in favour of Kara/Pamela/Matt in that order then the placement points would be

Kara 12
Pamela 24
Matt 36

So, for all the huffing and puffing about the judges, they don't think overall there has been mch between them. If you think they have been padding Pamela's scores recently to protect her (my own opinion), then Kara is probably slightly further ahead, and Matt probably a bit ahead of Pamela.

Someone else can look at the numbers for individual judges!

jacksinclairx

18-12-2010

Pamela does the seem outsider but me and most of the appreciation thread and other fans are going to be voting like crazy tonight so who knows what will happen !?!!

River Man

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by jacksinclairx:
“Pamela does the seem outsider but me and most of the appreciation thread and other fans are going to be voting like crazy tonight so who knows what will happen !?!!”

I don't think she's as big an outsider as the bookies and most on here believe.

Come on Pamela!

Bonnie96

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by zamboanga:
“If you add up the total placement points (less is better) you get

Kara 24
Pamela 28
Matt 29

which means that Kara is clear, but not overwhelmingly first, and Pamela and Matt are virtually equal. If the judges were overwhelmingly in favour of Kara/Pamela/Matt in that order then the placement points would be

Kara 12
Pamela 24
Matt 36

So, for all the huffing and puffing about the judges, they don't think overall there has been mch between them. If you think they have been padding Pamela's scores recently to protect her (my own opinion), then Kara is probably slightly further ahead, and Matt probably a bit ahead of Pamela.

Someone else can look at the numbers for individual judges! ”

Mine too!

Doing it that way, you have to include Scott in the mix as he took 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th places for 11 out of 12 weeks and then the only 2 not to fall out of the top 4 are Kara and Matt (top 3 in Kara's case).

You can make figures reflect anything you want but I still maintain it's the comments if anything, that influence the voters.

soulmate61

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by River Man:
“I don't think she's as big an outsider as the bookies and most on here believe.

Come on Pamela! ”

Agreed.

Round 1: Kara is solid, but if Matt voters relax or falter, then Pamela could come in from left field and evict Matt.

Round 2: Realistically Pamela has no chance against Kara. Paradoxically the older viewers are not solidly backing Pamela. If they did then Pamela would be a shoe-in given the demographics of viewership.

Best wishes to all fans.

jacksinclairx

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by River Man:
“I don't think she's as big an outsider as the bookies and most on here believe.

Come on Pamela! ”

I like your spirit River Man Pammie for the win, failing that the lovely Kara

Bonnie96

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by Bonnie96:
“Doing it that way, you have to include Scott in the mix as he took 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th places for 11 out of 12 shows and then the only 2 not to fall out of the top 4 are Kara and Matt (top 3 in Kara's case).”

To clarify, taking Scott's leaderboard positions out of the equation you get:

Code:

Week    G/K   	K/A   	M/A  	P/J     S/N
 1      3       2       1       1       (3)
 2      8  	1 	2  	1 	(1)
 3	8	2	2	1	(2)
 4	7	3	1	2	(1)
 5	8	1	2	7	(1)
 6	6	1	2	3	(7)
 7	3	1	2	4	(1)
 8	6	3	1	2	(4)
 9	5	2	3	1	(4)
10	4	2	3	1	(3)
SF1	4	1	3	2	(3)
SF2	4	2	3	1	(4)

Kara 21
Matt 25
Pamela 26

As opposed to

Originally Posted by zamboanga:
“Kara 24
Pamela 28
Matt 29”

Granted the figures are still close but the relative positions between Pamela and Matt have reversed without Scott's placings.

Scott has been the 'pacer' for them but Kara is the front runner whichever way you look at it.

River Man

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by jacksinclairx:
“I like your spirit River Man Pammie for the win, failing that the lovely Kara ”

Yes, they're my top two too even though I like Matt aswell.

Keep it quiet but Pamela could be dancing last.

The reahearsal pics have been posted on the strictly twitter feed and they suggest the running order will be Kara, Matt, Pamela.

Alli-F

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by River Man:
“Yes, they're my top two too even though I like Matt aswell.

Keep it quiet but Pamela could be dancing last.

The reahearsal pics have been posted on the strictly twitter feed and they suggest the running order will be Kara, Matt, Pamela.”

In which case, it will be Kara dancing last in the final part if she makes it through.

TylerTango

18-12-2010

Omg at Kara being first AGAIN.

Alli-F

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by TylerTango:
“Omg at Kara being first AGAIN.”

It's a good thing this time hun, because it means she won't be first in the second half and as there's only two, she'll go last.

TylerTango

18-12-2010

Originally Posted by Alli-F:
“It's a good thing this time hun, because it means she won't be first in the second half and as there's only two, she'll go last. ”

Ooh! Didn't think of that, fabulous!

Gee, where would I be without you?

Cassie

18-12-2010

I love Matt and adore Kara's dancing. So my hope regardless of polls or averages is that they both make it into the final 2 and I'll let their show dances decide my final vote.

3 of 4