You'll probably have noticed the news that the US carrier Verizon is about to get the iPhone in February, ending AT&T's exclusivity.

Now I know here is mainly UK centric, but it will undoubtedly have implications on the worldwide smartphone market; particularly as pertains to the iPhones biggest competitor, Android.

There's been much talk in the tech press about how Android has bested iPhone in sales in the past year. But that's mostly been off the back of the US where while the iPhone has been shacked to AT&T, Android phones have had no such limitation being available on all carriers.

So is this the end for Android's onslaught? How many potential Android customers will now get an iPhone instead, knowing they won't have to tolerate AT&T's reportedly poor coverage? Is the iPhone about to reclaim the lead and demote Android to the also-rans?

Cuss & discuss at your leisure…

I think Android has gathered enough ground and made enough improvements that this news will have less of an impact than it might have done a year or two ago. Android can no longer be considered just a cheap rip-off of iOS, and I can't see the Verizon iPhone deal having a massive impact because:

a) Verizon have been big backers of Android historically. Once the initial buzz of the new kid on Verizon's block has died off, it's reasonably likely they'll still be backing Android full gusto;

b) If someone had their heart set on an iPhone in the US previously, they either needed to "settle" for Android or "settle" for AT&T. I'd wager that most people would "settle" for AT&T given that choice, though I could be wrong. However, I do think that a large number of people who get an iPhone on Android are people who would have gone for the iPhone on AT&T, rather than people who would have gone for an Android on Verizon.

c) Sales of Android are strong outside of the US, where the iPhone is not restricted just to one network. iPhone unavailability on Verizon is not a reason for Android's success.

d) Heavyweight mobile manufacturers churning out appealing, heavyweight phones (such as the LG Optimus X2, Playstation Phone et al) aimed at a variety of price points and target audiences means there'll continue to be a large market for Android phones.

It'll be interesting to watch, and it'll certainly have some impact, but I'd wager that it will have more impact on RIM and others than Android.

Nope I don't see this affecting Android sales at all. They will continue to increase market share. The main problem with the iPhone is it's astronomical price, and Apple don't look like they will change that. Having a CDMA version of the iPhone does open up more markets though, not just the US.

I honestly can't see android phone sales slowing down much. he uk has iphone on almost all carriers, yet it has not stopped android phones from selling in high numbers. i would imagine that the US will be much the same. iphone is not the highest spec smartphone now, dual core andriods with dedicated GPUs are coming out now and i can see a trend in manufacturers competing in this "spec war" apple have one model, premium, other manufacturers on the other hand have premium, mid end and budget androids. this is the key in my opinion.

Good point. Plus I think Apple really screwed the pooch in shacking themselves to the AT&T anchor for so long. It allowed Android to gain a foothold it may not have done to anywhere near the extent if the iPhone had been multi-carrier right form the start.


I'm not so sure. Recent figures suggest that for every Android phone on AT&T, there's 15 iPhones. That would seem to indicate that all things being equal, given the choice, ordinary folk would choose an iPhone over an Android one.


Android is doing okay in other developed nations, but it's the US where they've got by far the biggest foothold. For instance, figures suggest here, taking the declining legacy platforms out of the equation, the iPhone still bests Android by a fair margin. And in Australia where the iPhone has always been multi-carrier, Android is a mere blip.

iPhone

Android.

They're two different things.

One is a phone and OS.

The other is software available on tons of different phones of massively different hardware.

This would suggest the iPhone still outsells Android in the UK by a fair margin:

www.comscoredatamine.com/2010/12/symbian-still-leads-uk-smartphone-market-but-apple-and-google-are-gaining

But still, yes, Android is catching up. Maybe the price thing is the reason. Maybe the trend will be the 'premium' smartphone will be the domain of the iPhone (much like Macs which have the lion's share of the 'premium' PC market), and Android will gain the big numbers by wrapping up the 'budget' end of the market?

That's one interpretation, but given that the figures are wildly different in the UK, it may also be worth considering a point you alluded to in your initial post: that AT&T seem to have a reputation for being a poor network in the US. People choose AT&T because of the iPhone - if a user were going to go for an Android or Symbian or Blackberry phone, they'd likely do so on another (better) network.


I think you've misunderstood me if you think I'm saying Android is outselling the iPhone. What I said was sales are strong outside of the US - 15% market share and growing is pretty strong for a still-new OS - and for every 2 people who buy an iPhone here, 1 person still buys an Android - even though they could have got an iPhone on the same network. Nothing even remotely like AT&T's 1:15 ratio.

Yes, i can see this being the case, it's becoming a fact now that a lot of people "need" a smartphone to stay connected to their online presence. and much like in personal computers, the majority of people balance features with affordability. i can see he whole "PC Mac" thing will be echoed here. only this time, both sides are using *nix!

Interesting from that link that Android market share jumped 600% in German over 12 months.

The Verizon move is also good for Android. In that the A T & T exclusive Motorola Atrix phone/laptop may be used as ammunition to make customers stay.

And Windows Mobile still 3rd!?! Blimey! And that's not even the fancypants new Windows Mobile. Geez, those wacky Germans!

www.comscoredatamine.com/2011/01/google-android-shows-fastest-growth-among-smartphone-platforms-in-germany/

i think people forget that windows mobile has was in business for many years, o2 sold loads of XDAs! I guess germany still has a huge userbase.

Methinks there is far less of a youth market in Germany.

The NY times has an analysis of Verizon and Apple .
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/15/bu..._r=1&src=busln

There may be one big difference though this time...

There's more to it than just a piece of hardware and how much it costs this time. The ecosystem is also a factor in attracting buyers. And that is largely decided by where the developers go, and they go where the money is.

Now back in the day in the Mac vs PC arena, that was Windows. But in this new iOS vs Android arena, it may not go the same way.

Right now, iOS seems to be where the money is, and stories in the tech press are that despite the growing market share, Android developers are finding it rather tough to make money.

So if that continues, that could limit how many more everyday folk adopt the Android 'alternative'. Could the platform become that of the less affluent and a few geeks, and iPhone the aspirational phone of the masses?

That may have something to do with up until recently Germany still only had 1 carrier for the iPhone - same scenario as the US.

Rovio don't seem to be complaining about Android revenue, citing potential of $1m per month on a FREE product. If I look at the apps and games I have paid for on Android, most of them have 50,000-250,000 downloads. Take Tasker, for instance, an awesome app that has enabled me to do things that would be difficult/impossible on an iPhone (eg. turn Wi-Fi on when I am at home, without polling GPS; turn phone onto vibrate during work hours but only if I'm actually at work, etc.), which goes for £3.99 a pop. Through the market alone, that dev has a revenue of £200k to £1m, and he actually sells it outside of the market too for which we have no stats. Various other games - Reckless Racing, Armoured Strike - have 50-250k downloads too. Robo Defense has >250,000 downloads, bringing in a minimum revenue of $750k for that developer. 50-250k people have splashed out almost £10 on Documents to Go, meaning a minimum of £½m too - nothign to be sniffed at. Let's not forget, not everyone makes money on the iOS platform, either.

The Android market is viable enough for other people to want a slice of it. Would Amazon be pooling thousands of dollars into creating their own app market if they didn't believe developers were attracted enough to the Android platform to make Amazon a profit? And Amazon aren't the only ones.


I tire of the insinuation from the Apple camp that those that buy Android do so because they're broke, a skinflint, or a geek. Yet people paid the same for a Desire HD as they would've for an iPhone. People have paid the same for a Galaxy Tab as they would've for an iPad. There are other reasons to attract both consumers and developers to the Android platform than price. As for being a geek, well yes - those of us on here are, but geeks equally buy iPhones too. That's not to say the non-geek population can't operate an Android phone.

Apple users quite rightly take umbrage when they are called "sheep" or "drones"; let's not get into the habit of hypocrisy...

A someone has said.

An Iphone is an Iphone end of, no choices
Android is an OS available on thousands of phones, well hundreds! can't really compare the 2

At our place a work, the staff had a special deal with 02 which included the original iphone, this has now ended, but when they go to upgrade although some have stayed with th Iphone, many have gone for an Android based phone, saying that the differences were now so small, and in some repsecst Android was far superior

It's a very interesting debate. Android will, based on the sheer numbers of handsets, increase marketshare. Apple only has three handsets available compared to hundreds of Android.

Apple also has amazing customer loyality. Over 90% of iPhone users say that their next phone will also be an iPhone. The Android platform doesn't, as of yet, have that level of loyality.

I believe that it will affect RIM more. Android and iOS both provide a much better user interface for the non-buisness user. Blackberries will go back to being purely a business phone.

Finally the market for smartphones has huge potential. The majority of phones are still non-smart. Both Apple and Android will dramatically increase the total numbers of phones sold, it will be fascinating to see how the market share goes.

I can only see Android gaining more and more ground.

Ive just switched to Android from iPhone, and I would never go back. All my mates, who Ive shown my phone too, are now looking to ditch their iphones too, and move to Android.

The iPhone: It's chic, smart and cool, but is it about to lose its mojo?
http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology...e-mobile-phone

Latest figures from the US show the Android and iPhone neck and neck in market share – but with 40.8% of new smart phone sales in the six months to November going to Android and 26.9% to iPhones.

Who knows. I personally rate Android way beyond the iPhone. Admittedly I've only used the iPhone 3G - and when I had it I thought it was the dog's bollox, but since I've seen and now have a HTC Desire I just cannot put it down. I fiddle away on it for hours, and I'm concerned I've become addicted

Each phone has its pros and cons, but I wouldn't dream of going back to the iPhone now. If someone said we'll swap your HTC Desire for an iPhone 4 for free I'd say that's very generous - thanks, but no thanks.

Apple is still doing good, given they sell just several configurations of one phone. But there are people who are unhappy with iPhone restrictions who look elsewhere. Three of my friends ditched their iPhones for Android phones, all happy with the change.

Interesting article. Along with that NYT Times one we do actually see the occasional touch of realism.

I wondered how Apple were doing so well, its that the far slower moving market share is quoted far more than recent sales.
At 41% for Android and 27% Apple, Apple profits are still massive.
Even at 70% Android 20% Apple income would be close to level with budget Android phones no doubt soon to become predominant.

I find spending £100 on a phone extraordinary so these £500 phones for me seem pure madness..

Will do!

Engadget is claiming that the CDMA iPhone is going to knock the wind out of Android in a very big way. I'm not so sure, but I think the iPhone will be a big seller for Verizon.

The US has about 7% of the mobile smartphone market, but CDMA iPhones are coming to Asia and Africa too and this could have a significant impact there.


Not so they have been dying to get the iPhone for years. They now have the Belle of the Ball, so time to ditch the pretender.




Not everyone has been happy with Android (fragmentation, poor battery life, anarchic marketplace) and the iPhone could pick up a lot of these people.

The AT&T network was pretty ropey in many parts of the US, so people may have settled for Android while they were waiting for a CDMA iPhone.



It could be the reason, as Verizon has a much stronger network than AT&T and it is CDMA.

Another reason is that Android competes at the lower end of the food chain. Apple isn't interested in that (there is no profit in it).



That could be true. Where Android is going to get hurt is with it's premium phones. They could be in big trouble as no one will want to pay the same for what could be perceived as 2nd best.


The article from the New York Times was full of anti-apple bias, no realism there at all. To read the article one would assume that there is no mobile phone market outside the US. The author also assumes that Apple's resistance to carriers putting crapware on their phones is a bad thing. I would call it quality control.

Ah, you know you're in for a treat when you see Vallhund has posted on an Apple-related thread...

Ridiculous personifications aside, there is no reason why they can't or won't continue to back Android phones in a big way. It's all about choice, and all the iPhone coming to Verizon has done is give people one more choice. Yes, the Apple branding is enough to attract customers from far and wide, but it's just another option in a huge list of options.
Well, you say "lower end", but there are premium phones running Android that are doing pretty well. The Desire and Desire HD top Amazon UK's bestselling smartphones list (at the time of writing they're 1st and 3rd respectively), but you're right - the financial accessibility of (some) Android phones gives it an advantage.
"Second best"! And you go on to criticise an article for being biased! I could argue that the iPhone is second best to my Android, as a lot of the stuff I do on it I couldn't do on the iPhone - however, I wouldn't, because there is no "best" in this game. They are equally capable platforms, and having the choice between them is wonderful. People will happily pay the same for an Android phone as an iPhone as demonstrated by the higher end Android phones - Desire HD, Nexus S, even the Galaxy Tab (which seems like a crock of turd) is pulling its weight in sales.

You are showing your bias.



Sorry, that is a list of Amazon's bestselling phones Not the UK's. And the Amazon topseller is a Blackberry at £175, the cheapest iPhone 4 comes in at £599. The Androids come in at £449 and £367. If I was buying an iPhone, I wouldn't be buying a PAYG from Amazon. In the upper range most people don't go for PAYG.



My comment was directed about how people feel although the Android phones routinely ceiling out at 4* rather than the 5* iPhone. I would agree with you there is no "best". I know you like to think of me as an Apple guy, but when it comes to smartphones I am more a sort of Nokia E-Series/Blackberry type. Choice is great and it helps to make all smartphones better.

But I don't think the higher end Android phones are even coming close in sales to the iPhone. Most of the Android market appears to be with lower end handsets.