Casey Abrams
Jacob Lusk
Pia Toscano
Paul McDonald
James Durbin
Lauren Turner
Lauren Alaina
Scotty McCreery
Thia Megia
Karen Rodriguez
Julie Zorrilla (wc)
Rachel Zevita (wc)

Edit: Oh, sorry, there's a separate thread. Oh well, never mind.

Their best-rated Top 24 week video on Youtube:

Scotty McCreery - 208,000 views, Likes 1,065 / Dislikes 33
Casey Abrams - 188,000 , 1,200 / 23
Jacob Lusk - 166,000, 937 / 30
Pia Toscano - 156,000, 960 / 41
Thia Megia - 138,000, 1,235 / 15
Paul McDonald - 127,000, 608 / 18
James Durbin - 69,000, 236 / 10
Lauren Alaina - 54,000, 321 / 19

This isn't a very scientific method, but it corroborates my instinct that Lauren Alaina is totally mispriced as favourite.

I have structured my betting to win £300 minimum on any of Lusk, Abrams, McCreery or Toscano. Break-even on Durbin and McDonald, lose £216 on all others except Thia Megia, which would put me in the poorhouse as I have laid her - she's ok but I don't think she's got the oomph to get over the line. Mispriced with her short odds, imho.

Interesting that Thia got only the 5th most views but the most actual likes.

I'm surprised Lauren is that far down the list. But I recall that during X factor, Matt wasn't hugely spectacular, week on week, with the youtube hits, yet he was way ahead on votes. Obv there were some weeks where he got lots of views on youtube. Have you used this is a guide on AI before?

That's not possible as in the past AI have scoured YT for performance videos and deleted them so that they wouldn't impinge on official Itunes sales of the performance videos and the contestants' studio recordings of their songs that week.

Not really. It can come in useful but it's not massively reliable.

I suspect a large number of Thia's likes might come from a Filipino fanclub.

Of all of these types of shows, American Idol has not been one of the most predictable in recent years. I doubt many people would have picked up on Kris Allen or Lee DeWyze as the natural winner in the last two years.

I was positively salivating to rake in some money by laying Lauren Alaina at those short odds, but having watched her first performance again, I concluded that she's not only good, she's going to be actively touted by the producers. But there are some really, really strong contenders this year, and I find it hard to imagine that she or Thia can make it all the way through.

There are quite a few of them capable of putting on a game-changing performance in any given week. Casey and Jacob have a punch no one else can handle, and Scotty's voice is ready for the recording studio yesterday. I think that there is going to be some serious mobilisation for him. If I had to pick a really dark horse it would be Naima, but only if she slams into her comfort zone of rumbunctious reggae. Summertime or One Moment In Hallelujah is not going to do it for her.

AI have always deleted any videos found on Youtube during the competition in past years.

Thanks for the response candy and ibeca.